In 2008, after a savage election campaign, Zanu PF claimed victory and swore in the President who then rushed off to a summit in Egypt to attend a continental gathering of leaders. He claimed 84 per cent of the vote. The only problem was that his African colleagues did not accept his victory and sent him back with instructions to resume negotiations.

Knowing full well that on a level playing field, given normal election rules, that Zanu PF had little chance of winning another bruising battle with the MDC, it very carefully planned their next fight. Zanu PF had plenty of time but was initially prevented from engaging the MDC by regional organisations which insisted on the next election being conducted according to regionally- acceptable rules and standards.

However, eventually the region ran out of patience and time  and Zanu PF using its allies in the Judiciary were able to get the MDC into an election of their choosing on the 31st July.

The election is now over and the dust and smoke is clearing and it is evident - given the circumstances - that the MDC suffered a serious defeat. There were exceptions. In my own City (Bulawayo) we took every seat. I got 72 per cent for Morgan Tsvangirai against Mugabe’s 20 per cent. I was elected by two-thirds against 6 opponents who shared the other third of the vote. But this was the exception.

The question is now how did Mugabe and Zanu PF do it? A picture is emerging and it’s not a pretty one. First was the voters roll, which had been carefully manipulated by experts. An Israeli company was employed in 2009 to advise the military and the Zanu PF hardliners on what to do to manipulate the roll. The result is astonishing. We went into the election with a roll that had 6,4 million names on it. We have been unable to get a copy of the roll in electronic format (costing about $15 and on one small CD which can be produced in 30 minutes) and therefore have had to rely on a copy we obtained some 6 weeks ago.

The analysis we have done on this roll shows that it contains at least 1 million dead voters; and goodness knows how many absent voters who now reside in the Diaspora. We know that there are over 350 000 people who are over 85 years old and 109 000 over a hundred years old, one of which – an army officer  - is 135 years old. We found 838 000 duplicate names – same name, same address, same date of birth, different ID numbers. All the ID’s checked were genuine and had been issued by the Registrar General. We found 500 000 people had been moved out of their resident areas to other electoral districts. 45 000 people had their ID numbers changed without their consent.

Whereas registering voters was a nightmare for the MDC, on the Zanu PF side they simply drew up lists of people and handed them in for registration. They moved hundreds of thousands of people into strategic areas in preparation for the Poll. Some 250 000 families – over a million people, were settled on farms taken away from their owners in the peri-urban areas. They then opened offices there and “sold” small plots of land to homeless people in the crowded towns. These people were told that they were there by courtesy of Zanu PF and that on the day of the battle they were expected to vote Zanu PF. To reinforce this, their registration details were changed to a selected electoral District and they were told where to vote and that the Party would thereby be able to tell how they voted. Eviction was the threat.

Storm troopers were carefully brought onto the battle field – thousands were accommodated on a farm outside Chitungwiza owned by a Zanu PF company, called Koala Park. They were then registered on target voters rolls in specific Districts. The ranks of the security forces – already over 120 000 people, were swelled to perhaps 200 000 with militia – young adults who were given some form of uniform and paid from Party resources if they could not be smuggled onto the State pay roll. They voted (perhaps, more than once) under instruction.

In the Commercial farming Districts they simply told the 500 000 or so “settlers” that any sign of a vote for the MDC would immediately invite retribution and eviction. The structures of the MDC were smashed and their leadership beaten or killed. In the Tribal areas they told all Chiefs (who were also promised rich rewards) that no voting for the MDC would be tolerated. Headmen – the backbone of rural Africa, were instructed to marshal their people, record names and ID numbers and then arrange for them to vote at a specified polling station. They were told what would happen to them and their families, homes and livestock, if they voted MDC. With three quarters of all seats in the House of Assembly in these areas, this alone guaranteed them victory on the day.

Then just to make sure that the battlefield was to their liking, they sold stocks of diamonds (I hear for over $1 billion), used the money to buy lots of things to bribe the locals (just like Livingstone carrying beads and cloth for the “savages” they might encounter), they funded a lavish campaign. They maintained tight control of all media, the security forces and Police, tight control of the Registrar Generals Office, the Electoral Commission and its minions as well as all polling stations.

And so they repeat what they did more crudely in 2008. They pulled off another totally rigged election. They now plan to declare victory and take office.

But it is not business as usual. The MDC has not and will not accept the outcome. Yesterday, confronted with the news coming in from the field, Morgan Tsvangirai said that we would not accept the results. We will not allow the outcome to stand and that he had already informed regional and African Union leaders of this. We could plunge the country into chaos – like Egypt, but that would just play into the hands of the Army and the hardliners who would lock us all up and declare an emergency and run the country through a military Junta (just like Egypt). That we will not allow to permit that to happen.

But what regional leaders need to know is that they allowed the Zanu PF to mount what we have called an electoral ambush and just as Mbeki had to step back into the ring in 2008, they must again take responsibility for this mess and sort out a solution. There are several – but they all involve allowing the people of Zimbabwe to make their own choices, without coercion or threats or inducement as to who they want to lead them back to the path of stability and progress.

If they do not, Zimbabwe will again slide back into anarchy and collapse and the collateral damage to the region will be massive. They simply cannot be allowed to permit that to happen. They have a couple of days to make up their minds and move.

Written by Eddie Cross

Editor’s Note:

In line with our objective of informing our international clients in particular of developments in Zimbabwe, we are today carrying three substantive points of view on the election. All of them come to the same conclusion, namely that it was marred by serious irregularities. The first contribution is by Eddie Cross, himself a candidate in the election; the second is by Gerry Hirshon; and the third is a joint statement issued by the heads of the Civil Society Organisations and Networks in Harare. If only a fraction of what they say is true, last week's election was, as Morgan Tsvangirai the MDC leader put it, a "complete sham"; and the negative reactions of the UK, the US and EU understandable and justified.

For the record, UK Foreign Minister William Hague said the UK government has "grave concerns" over how Zimbabwe's election was carried out. Mr Hague said election observers had raised "significant concerns" of irregularities both leading up to the election and on election day itself, which "called into serious question the credibility of the election." The Foreign Secretary said there was no evidence that the role of eligible voters was made available for all parties to scrutinise ahead of the vote. He added: "we also have concerns over reports of large numbers of voters being turned away, particularly in urban areas, the very high number of extra ballot papers that were printed and additional polling stations apparently added on election day itself." All allegations of electoral violations should be thoroughly investigated, Mr Hague said. The European union and the US have also raised serious concerns over reports of irregularities. The EU’s verdict will be crucial in deciding whether it continues to ease sanctions on Zimbabwe individuals. And in a statement US Secretary of State John Kerry said: "The United States does not believe that the results announced represent a credible expression of the will of the Zimbabwean people"

The South African government, by contrast, finds no fault. In fact, one Sunday newspaper writes that President Zuma's immediate concern is to re-establish personal relations with President Mugabe after they were ruffled by his foreign affairs adviser Lindiwe Zulu who had the temerity to express reservations about the election process in the week before the actual election. While she has every right to feel vindicated, the rest of us as South Africans are left to hang our heads in shame.

Denis Worrall

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