Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) would, in future, focus more strongly on the trends of long-term unemployment in its quarterly labour force surveys (QLFSs), statistician-general Pali Lehohla said on Thursday.

Releasing the QLFS for the three months ended September 30, Lehohla noted that long-term unemployment was a significant problem in South Africa, with more than 1.4-million of the country’s 5.1-million unemployed persons having been unemployed for a period exceeding five years.

He stated that people who were unemployed for an extended period of time were more vulnerable and were at risk of losing the skills they once had, which would make them even less employable and put them on a downward path ending in poverty. 

Therefore, government policy had to focus on a “rescue plan” for long-term unemployed persons, which would help them re-enter the labour market.

Responding to questions from Engineering News Online, he said that, while Stats SA was not responsible for creating the desired policy environment, the organisation did provide the relevant government bodies with “sharper pencils” in the form of detailed and accurate information about the long-term unemployed.

Factors such as people’s education levels, previous work experience, gender and race could all be quantified by Stats SA and would assist in determining an appropriate response to the challenge. 

According to Stats SA, the percentage of work seekers who had been looking for work for more than five years had increased from 22.4% in 2008 to 28.5% this year.

Further, Stats SA found that, in 2014, the long-term unemployment rates among the youth, or persons aged 15 to 34, and that of adults aged 35 to 64, were similar at 65.8% and 66.3% respectively.

The incidence of long-term unemployment had also increased for every education category between 2008 and 2014, Lehohla noted, adding that the greatest increase in unemployment had, however, occurred among people with a tertiary education, followed by those who had completed matric.

Meanwhile, long-term unemployment among those with no work experience, at 83.4%, was substantially higher than among those who had previous work experience, at 55.3%.

“Therefore, if you do not have work experience you are more likely to be [affected by] long-term unemployment,” he pointed out.

Further, the incidence of long-term unemployment was also found to be highest among people who had previously worked in the mining and utilities industries, at 64.6% and 55.8% respectively, and the lowest in the agriculture and construction sectors at 21.5% and 25%.

These were aspects that had to be taken into account when mitigation strategies were planned, Lehohla said.

Q3 EMPLOYMENT
Meanwhile, Lehohla noted that employment increased by 22 000 persons between the second and third quarters of 2014, while unemployment decreased marginally by 3 000, resulting in an increase of 19 000 persons in the labour force.

Consequently, over the same period, the unemployment rate declined by 0.1 of a percentage point to 25.4%.

During the third quarter, the number of unemployed persons stood at 5.2-million, reflecting a decline of 3 000 persons quarter-on-quarter, but an increase of 271 000 persons year-on-year.

The expanded unemployment rate, which includes people who have given up looking for work, increased by 0.2 of a percentage point between the second and third quarters, to 35.8%.

Further, Stats SA said that, during the third quarter, employment had increased in the formal and informal sectors, which gained 88 000 and 28 000 jobs respectively.

Lehohla stated that the quarter-on-quarter job gains was mostly driven by the construction sector, which gained 99 000 jobs and was the biggest creator of jobs in South Africa during the three-month period.

Further, the mining sector added 22 000 jobs during the third quarter, while domestic trade jobs increased by 18 000, agricultural jobs by 16 000, and finance and other business services by 13 000.

However, these gains were partially countered by job losses in private households, which shed 110 000 jobs, community and social services, where 17 000 jobs were lost, and transport that lost 15 000 jobs.

Nedbank’s Economic Unit commented that the sharp decline in employment by private households probably reflected the deterioration in household finances over the past two years, while the downsizing within community and social services could reflect the constraints on government spending, given the need to reduce the budget deficit and contain the rise in government debt.

The bank added that the figures confirmed that economic activity remained too weak to generate the levels of confidence needed to expand capacity and grow employment significantly.