Trade conditions have been under pressure since January 2022 and ended April at 43 points, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) reports.

While trade expectations were well into positive territory over the last 12 months, there was notable volatility towards the end of last year into 2023. 

In April, respondents only expected 51% of the trade activities to improve in the next six months, compared with 59% in April 2022.

Sales volumes were bordering on the negative side while new orders declined noticeably in April, Sacci notes. 

Supplies and stock levels consequently increased. Sales prices remained under pressure and declined slightly while input prices increased, as 83% of respondents reported rising input costs. This caused lower profitability and affected viability. 

Sacci warns that sales volumes are expected to decline significantly over the next six months (scope of survey), while new orders come under pressure.

Supplier deliveries and inventories follow the expected lower trade activity. It is anticipated that the rate of increase of sales prices could slow (inflation stabilizing), but that input costs will rise at a faster pace.

The latest data releases indicate that the volume of retail trade, merchandise export volumes and the number of new vehicle sales declined year-on-year, while the volume of merchandise import volumes and number of inwards tourists increased. Electricity loadshedding and providing alternative sources of power are weighing on businesses and input costs.

Respondents from the private personal services fraternity and small-scale manufacturing especially experienced frequent disruptions and closing of businesses owing to loadshedding.

Given the present unpredictable trade environment, employment in the sector is affected negatively. 

Expectations for employment in this sector were also well into negative territory with the employment subindex recording 36 in April – indicating further job-shedding.