As global trade conditions factor in the effect of the war in the Middle East, especially as it impacts international crude oil prices, these exogenous developments not only affect crude oil prices, but have also been filtering through the supply chain, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (Sacci’s) Trade Conditions Survey for April states.

While this price destabilisation has not yet affected the inflation rate markedly, Sacci notes that it has had a direct effect at the fuel pump for households and businesses.

It is therefore evident that 75% of respondents to the April survey recorded a rise in input costs, while 95% of the respondents expect input costs to increase over the next six months.

Apart from higher input costs, Sacci says sales prices remained virtually stable in April as the general price level (inflation) has not yet fully experienced the fuel price hike.

The sales volumes index – down from 58 to 50 – and new orders index – down from 56 to 40 – reflect the effect the price instability and the higher fuel prices had on real trade activity in April.

Sacci notes that the overall trade conditions deteriorated, with the Trade Conditions Index for April tumbling to 43 from 50 in March.

It explains that all the components of trade activity worsened except for backlog on orders. Only 35% of traders experienced better trade conditions in April this year than in April 2025.

Trade conditions are expected to move further into negative territory in the next six months, according to the April survey.

“The gap between present and expected trade conditions narrowed as trade expectations copy current trade conditions.

“The notable depressed expectations for trade conditions were present in all elements of trade. Rising input prices are however the largest impeding factor to expected trade conditions.”

According to the latest released trade data, Sacci points out, consumer inflation stayed low at 3.1% in March, while producer inflation measured 2.3%.

It notes that electricity tariffs soared by 19% year-on-year in March with the diesel price increasing by 34% in April 2025. Credit to households rose by 4.5% year-on-year in March and credit to non-households by 11.6% year-on-year.

In-shop credit most probably helped to keep retail trade volumes going at +1.6% year-on-year.

Notable depressed trade activities were evident in manufacturing (-2.7%), construction (-5%), merchandise foreign trade volumes (-2.8%) and energy consumption (-3.6%).

Given prevailing weaker trade conditions, Sacci notes that respondents employed fewer staff although 40% still increased staff complements in April.

Given pressure on profit margins and expected uncertain trade conditions, Sacci explains that respondents intend to employ fewer people over the next six months with the expected employment index dipping from 56 to 40.