The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) says the results from its February survey of trade conditions confirm an ongoing rough trade environment that first began to deteriorate in October 2023.

After having fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years in January – at 28 index points – the Trade Activity Index (TAI) increased to 31 in February; however, 69% of respondents in general still experienced February trade conditions as negative, Sacci points out.

Further, while all elements of trade improved in February, this was on the back of an historic low base in January.

Twenty-six per cent of respondents experienced higher sale volumes in January 2024 which improved to a meagre 34% in February. New orders also showed a slight improvement in February.

Input costs slowed further, with only 56% of respondents having cited rising input costs in February. This led to a significant easing in sales price rises as only 38% of respondents recorded sales price increases.

"This also implies a notable drop in inflationary expectations as both input costs and sales prices might decline further over the next six months. The South African Reserve Bank may possibly consider easing its monetary stance on interest rates," Sacci notes.

Meanwhile, the considerable rough trade conditions have affected employment relatively less. Thus, in January, 34% of respondents were still hiring staff - which increased to 38% in February.

The prospects for additional employment in the trade sector in the next six months remain limited, Sacci states.