The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (Sacci’s) Trade Activity Index (TAI) remained in positive territory in November, measuring 59 compared with 57 in October, despite electricity supply disruptions in late November, the chamber revealed in its trade conditions survey on Wednesday.

This followed a positive swing in trade conditions in October, after lingering in negative territory for three months.

The November TAI was two index points above the level seen in the same month last year.

Meanwhile, owing to seasonal factors, the November TAI was adjusted to 54 – the same as in October 2014.

Sacci said in a statement on Wednesday that, although the economy remained depressed and troubled by relatively low export volumes and strong import volumes, there was a relative improvement in retail sales volumes compared with earlier this year. 

“However, retail sales volumes were dampened by power supply constraints in November. In the absence of such constraints, a higher retail sales figure would have been supported, given that many stores were impacted during month-end trading,” the chamber noted.

Sales volumes, meanwhile, declined slightly, while the new orders subindex improved from 58 to 63 in November. 

Both indices recovered from 47 in September. Supplier deliveries remained virtually unchanged but inventories picked up by 7 index points to 62 in anticipation of the holiday period ahead. Backlogs on orders declined “significantly”.

Price pressures on inputs decreased further, with the index declining from 63 to 59, while the sales price index increased mildly by one index point. 

“Tight trade conditions continued to leverage price pressures, but the recent weakening of the rand and the high import propensity for durable consumer goods might induce further inflationary pressures. The lower fuel price may counter some of the price pressures,” Sacci outlined.

Expectations for both sales and input price increases were lower, as the respective indices either remained unchanged or decreased and the Trade Expectations Index was more sensitive to concerns about electricity supply continuity.

Although the respondents to the survey remained positive about trade conditions for the coming six months, the seasonally adjusted expectations index decreased from 65 in October to 61 in November.

Employment conditions in the trade environment were also sensitive to growing concerns about access to power. 

The employment index remained positive at 51 compared with 52 in October, while prospects for employment also remained positive, although the expectations index declined to 51 in November.