A great pall of dismay and depression is hanging over Zimbabwe.

Zanu PF under Mugabe’s leadership, has given Tsvangerai and his party a salutary lesson in the Art of Deception. For there is little doubt that Zanu PF achieved this victory through the use of massive and sophisticated rigging. And Morgan Tsvangurai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) thinks it can prove it.

Just when the country’s believers in democracy thought the MDC would trounce Robert Mugabe’s Zanu PF government in the July 31 election, Mugabe’s party scores an unbelievable, runaway victory with votes in excess of two-thirds of those cast. The MDC’s conviction that they were on the brink of an enlightened future has been bludgeoned away.

Now Zanu PF MPs will sit in parliament with a majority that can – and will - change the newly introduced constitution as it pleases.

On Saturday, styling himself as ‘President’ Tsvangurai, the president of the MDC set out how the MDC intends to oppose it. He began by saying “The MDC totally rejects the 31 July elections….From the evidence available, discounting all omissions and commissions the MDC won that election.” He called for a forensic audit of the electoral process in general with particular emphasis on the voter’s roll, the ballot papers and where they were printed, the special vote, voter displacement and voter registration certificates.

Tsvangurai said neither he nor his party will “legitimize institutions created by an illegal election” and that they will not “engage in institutions of government”. Instead, he said, “The MDC is determined to pursue peaceful, legal, political, constitutional and diplomatic remedies to resolve the current crisis.” And he called for a “fresh opportunity to freely and fairly elect a government of their choice” to be held as soon as possible.

Unless it can be categorically proved there was no rigging, the MDC, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and South Africa (SA) in particular, should shoulder some of the blame for the MDC’s defeat.

When Mugabe lost the election in 2008 it took five weeks for him to be declared the winner. It was then common cause that the counting process was a rigged one.

At that juncture, Mugabe was at his weakest. But, insecurely back in the Presidential chair, he must have resolved then to plan how, for the next election in 2013, he would find ways to win it overwhelmingly.

In his weakened state, Mugabe was then coerced by SADC and SA to design and to agree to the Global Political Agreement (GPA) with the MDC. Then came the formation of Government of National Unity (GNU). These undesirable introductions further highlighted his weak situation as did new conditions that defined election procedures. These conditions were agreed to by the SADC, SA and all the parties in the negotiations that led up to the introduction of a new constitution.  Mugabe understood that if these conditions were enforced, his ambition to overcome all obstacles to win would be thwarted. It merely strengthened his resolve.

So it was that President Mugabe, signed the new constitution into force with deep reluctance in early July this year. But, and it is a big BUT, all the parties that agreed to it, for unclear reasons, had also agreed to the exclusion from the constitution of all the critical election conditions, apparently trusting they would be incorporated in due course.

Mugabe, master of deception, saw that time was not on his side. He seized the opportunity to turn the tables by calling the election for 31 July, knowing there would not be time for the Zimbabwe Election Committee (ZEC) to organize the event properly or efficiently – or to comply with the extra-legal electoral conditions.

Howling with indignation about Mugabe’s audacity, Tsvangerai appealed to the SADC triumvirate to extend the election date, believing it would insist on the agreed-to election conditions being in place so that a proper voter registration drive and a representative electoral voter’s roll plus the other conditions, could be implemented before the election. Extraordinarily, after all the effort and agreements made in the past five years, the triumvirate sat on its hands and, in the end, did nothing. South Africa too, even when evidence of ZEC’s unpreparedness was obvious, did nothing. And the African Union also avoided the obvious.

At this point, The MDC should have withdrawn and insisted that Zanu PF also follow the Road Map to elections drawn up in the GPA. Red lights were flashing and danger bells ringing. The MDC had uncovered the existence of the Israeli company that was infamous for its election-rigging, sitting in Harare where it had been plying its trade for the past four years. The MDC knew well before July 31 that the elections would be rigged. But it never dreamed the rigging would be done so extensively. Even so, the MDC insisted it was ready for the elections. What a mistake. For Zanu PF was even better prepared.

SADC, the AU, SA and the official observers and monitors have stated their acceptance that the election was free and fair. Could they not see that, under the circumstances, it might as well not have taken place?

Written by Gerry Hirshon

Editor’s Note:

In line with our objective of informing our international clients in particular of developments in Zimbabwe, we are today carrying three substantive points of view on the election. All of them come to the same conclusion, namely that it was marred by serious irregularities. The first contribution is by Eddie Cross, himself a candidate in the election; the second is by Gerry Hirshon; and the third is a joint statement issued by the heads of the Civil Society Organisations and Networks in Harare. If only a fraction of what they say is true, last week's election was, as Morgan Tsvangirai the MDC leader put it, a "complete sham"; and the negative reactions of the UK, the US and EU understandable and justified.

For the record, UK Foreign Minister William Hague said the UK government has "grave concerns" over how Zimbabwe's election was carried out. Mr Hague said election observers had raised "significant concerns" of irregularities both leading up to the election and on election day itself, which "called into serious question the credibility of the election." The Foreign Secretary said there was no evidence that the role of eligible voters was made available for all parties to scrutinise ahead of the vote. He added: "we also have concerns over reports of large numbers of voters being turned away, particularly in urban areas, the very high number of extra ballot papers that were printed and additional polling stations apparently added on election day itself." All allegations of electoral violations should be thoroughly investigated, Mr Hague said. The European union and the US have also raised serious concerns over reports of irregularities. The EU’s verdict will be crucial in deciding whether it continues to ease sanctions on Zimbabwe individuals. And in a statement US Secretary of State John Kerry said: "The United States does not believe that the results announced represent a credible expression of the will of the Zimbabwean people"

The South African government, by contrast, finds no fault. In fact, one Sunday newspaper writes that President Zuma's immediate concern is to re-establish personal relations with President Mugabe after they were ruffled by his foreign affairs adviser Lindiwe Zulu who had the temerity to express reservations about the election process in the week before the actual election. While she has every right to feel vindicated, the rest of us as South Africans are left to hang our heads in shame.

Denis Worrall

To become a subscriber of Omega's Political Risk Service please visit our website for options and costs, www.omegainvest.co.za or contact Stacey Farao – Staceyf@omegainvest.co.za