The nature of conflicts and security threats across Africa has been changing. In the 1970s and 1980s, interstate conflicts prevailed, and were dealt with through the use of power politics. Yet the early 1990s were a critical point for the direction and nature of conflict in Africa. The nature of interstate conflict initially gave way to a seemingly golden age of peace and security; no region of the world was more affected by such changing international circumstances than Africa. As domestic grievances turned violent, conflict across the African continent assumed a new character. This subsequently paved the way for the rapid rise of intrastate warfare.

This paper discusses a new type of conflict that has increasingly come to the fore in the form of armed insurrections, violent secessionist movements and other domestic warfare in recent years. Africa has faced the growth of Islamic extremist groups, and a rise of related conflict.

Rise in Islamic insurgency movements

The initial perceived international threat of al-Qeada has shifted to softer targets over the years, as the group expanded its activities to offering support and training to other groups and individuals in several countries and regions, including Africa. Since terrorism is a political act, it is impacted by the political environment within (African) countries. The political instability in several African regions, especially North Africa, has led to the rise of several insurgency movements. The power vacuums left in many regions, by the Arab spring, has created a potential base, as well as new recruits, for insurgency groups.⁽²⁾

The political and socio-economic situation in individual countries makes it difficult to effectively address the growing threat. The situation in many countries is an ideal ground for groups to develop, and does not offer substantial resistance to attacks. In light of this situation, there have been ample opportunities for insurgency groups to target Western interests, as was seen with the assassination of the United States (US) ambassador to Libya in September 2012 ⁽³⁾ or the attack on the In Amenas gas facility by al-Qaeda-linked groups that left 37 foreign workers dead.⁽⁴⁾

In West and Central Africa, there has been a rise in criminal networks laundering goods and money, and often aiding al-Qaeda with its assets. While countries such as Kenya and South Africa are struggling to balance responds to the growing threat with internal civil rights legislation and democracy, Zimbabwe has labelled its opponents as ‘terrorists’ to counter international criticism of its anti-democratic practices. The countries that house the most well-known groups in Africa are Somalia’s al-Shabaab and Nigeria’s Boko Haram.

Known insurgency groups

One of the more active groups in Africa is Boko Haram, which aims to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria. There has been evidence that Boko Haram is receiving financial support, training and weapons (namely explosives) from al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. The group’s operation was relatively peaceful for seven years until government investigations in 2009. The investigation sparked clashes, and since then the violence has only escalated in terms of both frequency and intensity.

Recently, in an unverified video by Abubakar Shekau, the leader of the Boko Haram, peace talks with the government were rejected.⁽⁵⁾ The group threatened further attacks and grave retaliation for any action taken against its members. During recent attacks, members of the group used gunfire and explosives, whilst also claiming responsibility for the kidnapping of French tourists in Cameroon.⁽⁶⁾ Boko Haram has been carrying out bombings in northern Nigeria for the past 10 years; the kidnappings show that the group is changing its method of attack and that they are capable of carrying out attacks in other countries, like Cameroon, as well. This adaption and growth will make it harder to target the group or forecast future risks.

In East Africa, Somalia and neighbouring regions have been affected by the actions of the prominent militant insurgency group, al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab merged with al-Qaeda in February 2012 and includes several foreigners in its ranks. Notably, the organisation has also extended membership to elders and unmarried girls. The organisation has reportedly intimidated, kidnapped and killed aid workers, leading to a suspension of humanitarian operations and an exodus of relief agents. The organisation did not originally use suicide bombings; however, the increased foreign influence has led to the introduction of new attack tactics, including suicide bombings, kidnappings and assassinations.

The reach of al-Shabaab has, in certain cases, been extended through its apparent cooperation with other militant groups in Africa, including al-Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (AQIM).⁽⁷⁾ The group managed to extend its reach through the use of social media, which highlights the acceptance of modern technology and new tactics. Though weakened in 2012, al-Shabaab continues to claim responsibility for attacks and kidnappings, and could manage to rebuild its power based on its wide membership base and use of social media to contact one another.

Notably, both organisations have employed more destructive methods. Suicide bombings and explosives may be utilised against a certain representative element, for example, an embassy or church; however, these methods also harm local Africans. Yet insurgency movements do not seem to shy away from the loss of lives, no matter what the nationality or age. At the same time, movements are increasingly embracing kidnappings of foreign nationals, which will eventually lead to the increased involvement of foreign countries in counter-terrorism initiatives in Africa.

Addressing the changing nature

In light of recent conflicts (attacks), it would appear that even if modern African ‘wars’ are about economic resources and political survival, terrorism can be traced to ethnicity, religion, ideology or geography ⁽⁸⁾ - especially, with regard to the political situation within the various countries.  Thus, it can be traced to identity: the mobilisation of people in communal identity groups based on race, religion, culture, language, and so on. The ideology behind an insurgency group can also often be traced to distribution: the means of sharing the economic, social and political resources within a society. Where there is a perceived imbalance, there is a potential for insurgency groups or attacks to flare up. However, forecasting attacks is difficult, especially with insurgency groups changing their tactics and locations of attacks.

Often international partnerships have a positive effect in addressing insurgency movements, as was seen with the US support to Somalia in the case of al-Shabaab. Although, a more direct role being played by the US and other international bodies could further weaken local government authority and inflame Islamist extremists. There is also a risk of foreign countries becoming more involved in the fights. An example is the French intervention in Mali, and the risks posed to the region if Paris is unsuccessful in crippling the al Qaeda-linked militias fighting there.

Conclusion

With deteriorating (political) circumstances in Africa, insurgency groups can continue to thrive as the local governments cannot prevent attacks or completely stop the movement. Western powers, which are often the targets of attacks, have recently become more involved in counter-terrorism; however, increased involvement can also lead to increased attacks by insurgency groups. To address terrorism in Africa, there is a need for international assistance, without interference.

Written by Annette Theron ⁽¹⁾

NOTES:

(1) Contact Annette Theron through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Conflict and Terrorism Unit (mail to: conflict.terrorism@consultancyafrica.com). This paper was developed with the assistance of Denine Walters and was copy edited by Nicky Berg.
(2) Carpenter, G., ‘Tensions building: The changing nature of terrorism risk and coverage’, December 2012,  http://www.guycarp.com. 
(3) Stevens, C., ‘US ambassador to Libya, killed in Benghazi attack’, The Guardian, 12 September 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk. 
(4) Cruickshank, P. and Lister, T., ‘Algeria attack changes terror landscape in North Africa’, CNN, 23 January 2012, http://edition.cnn.com. 
(5) ‘Nigerian army “fights off Boko Haram attack”', AlJazeera,  4 March 2013, http://www.aljazeera.com.
(6) Ibid.
(7) ‘Tensions building: The changing nature of terrorism risk and coverage’, Guy Carpenter, December 2012, http://www.guycarp.com. 
(8) ‘Changing nature of conflict: Trends and responses,’ Centre for Land Warfare Studies, 2010, http://www.claws.in.