This paper concludes by discussing some of the available pathways for action and smart adaptation. Part 1 of the paper addressed the steady disappearance of Lake Chad and continued from an initial exchange of discussions on the Consultancy Africa Intelligence (CAI) LinkedIn Group.⁽²⁾
Pathways towards action and smart adaptation

The launch of the International Year of Water Cooperation 2013 ⁽³⁾ hopefully heralds new impetus to address global water scarcity and stress. Fresh water is the common denominator of today’s most pressing challenges, such as health, agriculture, energy and urbanisation. Water scarcity has serious and adverse impacts on public health and maintaining levels of cleanliness in hospitals.⁽⁴⁾ To advance this most vital cause, United Nations (UN)-Water has designated the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) to lead the United Nations International Year of Water Cooperation (IYWC) in 2013. Later in the autumn, Turkey is scheduled to host the first World Irrigation Forum (WIF), organised by the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID).⁽⁵⁾ The ICID, established in 1950 with a view to contribute to food security, is the leading scientific, technical and not-for-profit non-governmental organisation (NGO) that acts as a global platform for knowledge exchange. With the comments made by the author on LinkedIn, would the ICID be that supranational actor that could assume the oversight to accelerate the disappearing of Lake Chad?

The expression ‘trust cannot be surged’ is more of an emphasis of the need for persistent, positive minded dialogue to bridge cultural divides, reach mutual confidence and common ground, than a hidden statement that implies ‘Sorry, things will go too slow for us’. A first pathway, and a valuable tool that can nurture such mutual confidence is to revitalise and mature some of the older websites ⁽⁶⁾ into a bespoke One Stop shop, multi-lingual Knowledge Hub on Lake Chad, managed by an independent, unbiased organisation. Such a tool – out in the public domain – would enable sharing views and information between stakeholders and civil society groups alike; and as such could significantly contribute to the development of a comprehensive regional roadmap to save Lake Chad, based on broad popular support. It is of great importance that such an internet-based hub does not turn into a political instrument, as by implication it would turn the project itself into a highly visible political instrument.

The aforementioned Knowledge Hub would be an instrument of choice to incorporate the results of a coordinated Public Outreach Programme by incorporating – on their behalf – the views of (small) villages, their specific agendas and the viewpoints of those civil society groups that have no, or difficult, access to internet based technologies. Clearly, the hub should also represent the position of the governments involved, the private companies that will contribute to the project and make available the research by authoritative organisations like UNESCO.⁽⁷⁾ And last, but not least, the hub should provide area specific suggestions for enhanced awareness and localised adaptation to the present situation until such time that water actually starts to flow from the Ubangi River towards Lake Chad. Suggestions can range between ‘best practices’ to minimise water wastage, to concrete examples of small construction work using local resources, which will mitigate some of the effects of Lake Chad drying up. Some of the construction can be anticipatory and be connected to the actual project itself at some future point. However, despite these well-intentioned suggestions, a dormant level of concern remains in that it will prove to be a real challenge to maintain the neutral nature of such a hub, without any traces of subtle ‘influencing’.

A second pathway, at the state-to-state level, the instrument of ‘Climate Diplomacy’, should become part of every diplomatic encounter and official visit by heads of state or their representatives. An instrument to keep the issue of Lake Chad on the international agenda, indicate the urgency of the issue and let diplomatically transpire that there may be consequences if no regional progress can be achieved. In fact, it should become a fixed item on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and the African Union (AU) agendas. Good governance starts with having a good government, and a good parliament that approves commensurate budgets for the realisation of all the individual parts of the overall project to save Lake Chad.

Referring to the stated need for a very substantial amount of international community donor support to fund the water transfer project, the third pathway would be by way of budget support rather than purely project aid. Budget support strengthens governance, increases the coherence of the national budget and, most importantly, commits states to setting priorities and achieving results.⁽⁸⁾ Budget support also underscores a high degree of public transparency.

A final pathway suggested is the acceptance and introduction of a cooperative, partnership-oriented and dynamic ‘Water Apportionment Accord’ for Lake Chad as an overarching regulatory framework. With less focus on sectorial and territorial thinking, it would dynamically judge the requirements within set parameters for the main users on either side of the plateau that separates Lake Chad from the Ubangi River. The accord should not discard historical usage data, but neither should it ignore the new and projected realities.⁽⁹⁾ When local agricultural-based economies will move forward, it will generally be accompanied by an increased demand for water. Smart technologies and sound management should prevent a disproportionate rise in such need for extra water, especially potable water. Therefore, besides being flexible in nature and accommodating periodic review, the accord must avoid keeping controversial issues and historical disputes on the forefront of people’s memories, stalling progress. Modelling and simulation techniques can further serve as a clinical decision support tool to factually influence any periodic amendments to such an accord.

Conclusion

By way of a disclaimer: the author does not pretend to be an engineering expert nor the judge of the cost calculations for the Lake Chad water transfer project. Nor is the choice of oversimplification of the many factors that have led to the present size of the lake, as well as the potential side effects of remedial activity a ‘scientifically responsible’ manner to present this situation. But the dire situation concerning Lake Chad does warrant focus and concerted international action to prevent a clear risk of humanitarian tragedy (‘climate refugees’) developing at an unprecedented scale. Whilst strong international support will be needed, assuming local responsibility now, preparatory steps are also required that do not need to await foreign assistance per se.

It can only be hoped that the ex-rebel leader and self-proclaimed president of the Central African Republic, Michel Djotodia, who suspended the constitution and dissolved the parliament and government after the military coup d’état on 24 March 2013, will reaffirm the country’s commitment to the process of saving Lake Chad and allow deliberations to proceed ‘at best possible speed’ during the present constitutional vacuum. Or perhaps Prime Minister Nicolas Tiangaye will provide the wise council, maintain dialogue with the opposition and prevent regional isolation?⁽¹⁰⁾ A first indication will be the amount of national media attention, indeed any national communiqué issued on 22 May 2013, when all members of the Lake Chad Commission will celebrate ‘Lake Chad Day.’⁽¹¹⁾

The endemic regional fragility that surrounds Lake Chad does not bode well and may discourage foreign engineering assistance unless a proper security umbrella can be guaranteed. The question remains whether local security forces can deliver such security guarantees, or we may see more private security providers descend in the area. The latter causing their own dynamics and being another cost driver to be added to the vast amounts of funding required to stem a total disappearance of the lake. Depressing as it may look, the present situation is still a ways from turning into a so-called ‘wicked problem’⁽¹²⁾ that is very difficult or even impossible to solve. As the author suggested in the preceding LinkedIn discussion, let the survival of Lake Chad become a regional unifying theme before things start to really turn ‘wicked’. Let’s demonstrate we can navigate the Anthropocene!⁽¹³⁾

Click here to read Part 1

Written by Marco Hekkens ⁽¹⁾

NOTES:

(1) Contact Marco Hekkens through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Conflict and Terrorism Unit ( conflict.terrorism@consultancyafrica.com). The author was kindly assisted by Mridulya Narasimhan. The paper was developed with the assistance of Denine Walters and copy edited by Nicky Berg.
(2) ‘Ticking Time bomb - Surface of Lake Chad reduced to only 1/10 of its original size’, A discussion on LinkedIn’s Consultancy Africa Intelligence (group), 2013, http://www.linkedin.com.
(3) ‘World water day: Water cooperation’, UNESCO, 2013, http://www.unesco.org.
(4) Razzaq, A., ‘Indus River: Water scarcity and the conflict between Sindh and Punjab – Analysis’, Eurasia Review, 28 February 2013, http://www.eurasiareview.com.
(5) ‘World immigration forum’, International Commission of Drainage and Irrigation, 2013, http://www.icid.org.
(6) For more information see http://lakechad.iwlearn.org, http://www.lakechadbc.org, http://www.lcbc.disk-world.net, http://www.cblt.org and http://www.passages-adapes.fr.
(7) For example, see the United Nations World Water Development Report 4: Managing water under uncertainty and risk at http://publishing.unesco.org.
(8) Michel, L., ‘A 10-point plan for a closer EU-Africa partnership’, Friends of Europe, 2013, http://www.friendsofeurope.org.
(9) ‘Managing water under security and risk’, UNESCO, 2012, http://publishing.unesco.org.
(10) Nako, M., ‘Regional leaders refuse to recognise Central African Republic coup leader’, Reuters, 3 April 2013, http://www.reuters.com.
(11) ‘La journée du Lac Tchad le 22 Mai 2013’, 2013, http://www.cblt.org.
(12) The term, ‘wicked problem’, was introduced by American philosopher Charles W. Churchman in 1967.
(13) Anthropocene is the name given to this epoch of humankind’s impact on the planet. See also McGlade, J., 2013. Navigating the Antropocene. Europe’s World, 23, http://www.europesworld.org.