Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo was pitching himself as Sudan’s president-in-waiting on a recent tour of African countries — and in a development that would have been unthinkable when its civil war began 10 months ago, he was being treated like one, too.

In Kenya, Dagalo stepped onto the airport tarmac and was greeted by traditional Masai dancers. In Ethiopia, he was whisked off to a luxurious eco-lodge for high-level talks. And in Rwanda, he was taken to a memorial where he gazed solemnly at the faded photographs of victims of the nation’s 1994 genocide — even as the US and European Union accuse his paramilitary group of committing ethnically-driven massacres in Sudan’s Darfur region.

The tide turned in Dagalo’s favor just before the trip, in late December and early January, when his forces routed General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s army from most of Darfur, consolidating their control over major cities, including large parts of the capital Khartoum.

“I can understand why he is bullish,” said Suliman Baldo, executive director of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker, of Dagalo, who’s also known as Hemedti. “He has the upper hand.”

Dagalo and Burhan were meant to help ease Sudan’s transition to democracy following the popular uprising that toppled Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Instead, their power struggle dragged the country into war. Multiple foreign players — seeking influence over Sudan’s strategic position on the Red Sea, vast mineral wealth and ample fertile land — have intervened, complicating mediation efforts.

The fighting has destroyed Sudan’s economy, with its commercial center — Khartoum — largely in ruins. At least 12 000 people have been killed, and both sides are accused of war crimes, including rape, deliberate targeting of civilians and looting. Central Darfur and parts of the capital are on the verge of famine for the first time in decades. And 9-million Sudanese have been forced from their homes in the world’s biggest internal mass displacement, with 1.5-million crossing into nations already stressed by drought, conflict and food shortages.

For the leaders of the six states Dagalo visited — Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, South Africa and Rwanda — his victory would be a pragmatic end to a war that risks destabilizing the wider region, especially countries such as Chad and the Central African Republic.

Dagalo’s advantage comes partly from ties to the United Arab Emirates, which supports his campaign with drones, howitzers, multi-rocket launchers and anti-aircraft guns, United Nations investigators wrote in a report seen by Bloomberg.

The UAE has long coveted greater access to Sudan’s 530-mile Red Sea coastline and prior to the war signed a $6-billion preliminary agreement with two firms to construct a new port. It opposes Islamist groups, which Dagalo says have firm links to al-Burhan, a charge he rejects. The UAE denies it’s “supplying arms and ammunition to any of the warring parties” and says it “does not take sides in the current conflict.”

Dagalo can also count on family and close associates who operate a network of banks, manufacturing, livestock, real estate, mining and oil businesses that acquire weapons, pay salaries, fund media campaigns, lobby governments and buy the support of armed groups, the UN investigators found.

An RSF spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to questions, but the group said in a post on X that it is “steadfastly committed to international and humanitarian law and has adhered to the rules of engagement in war during this conflict.”

Dagalo’s Rapid Support Forces — which evolved from the janjaweed militia that massacred non-Arabs in Darfur 20 years ago — has been bolstered with mercenaries from Chad, Niger and the CAR, and is poised to take over a strategic oil field controlled by al-Burhan on the border with South Sudan, according to one African and one Western diplomat in the region.

But for all the pomp of his regional tour, and despite recent victories, Dagalo’s grip on Sudan is tenuous, according to more than a dozen analysts, diplomats as well as former and current Sudanese politicians.

In recent days, senior members of both sides have met in Manama, Bahrain to discuss a road map toward a cease-fire and a political settlement that would maintain Sudan’s unity, according to two Western officials briefed on the conversations. The talks were postponed with neither side agreeing to forge a deal.

Fighting, meanwhile, has intensified in Khartoum, and the army — which has historic connections to Iran and Egypt — is preparing to take back lost territory elsewhere, two humanitarian officials said. It remains possible the generals fight to a stalemate and split the country, they said.

Even if Dagalo wins, he’s likely to encounter stiff opposition from civil society groups, with many of them questioning his promise to the international community to hand over power to a civilian government.

“They said that they want to defeat the Islamist forces and then that they support civil rule,” said Rasha Awad, a spokesperson for the Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces, a coalition led by former Sudanese premier Abdallah Hamdok. But “they are not democratic forces, they are military forces. They want to control the country by force.”

He would also face uprisings by armed groups, Islamists and other tribes that have historically resisted the RSF, Awad said. “There are great difficulties for Hemedti to control all of Sudan in light of the deep division between the Sudanese, and because Hemedti himself lacks experience in ruling a complex country.”

Dagalo, believed to be in his late 40s, was born into a family of camel traders who arrived in Darfur from Chad in the 1980s. They encountered a region of some 80 tribes and ethnic groups that had lived together peacefully for centuries.

But decades of climate disasters and poor central governance led members of the non-Arab population to launch an armed revolt against the government in 2003. He joined the janjaweed (“devils on horseback”) and turned it into a key tool for Bashir’s regime in its brutal, internationally condemned fight against the rebellion.

As Dagalo’s fighters press on with their offensive, they’re not helping him shed that image. Rights groups and UN investigators say they’re terrorising Sudan’s non-Arab population, looting, raping and killing with impunity, and committing widespread attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and schools.

In November, they killed over 1 300 Masalit tribes people in Ardamata, west Darfur, one of the biggest mass killings of the war, according to human rights groups.

But diplomats say Dagalo has shown himself ready to play ball — trading in his bush fatigues for tailored suits and taking advantage of Iranian support for his army rivals to spur warmer relations with the US.

That was evident in Ethiopia, the second stop of Dagalo’s public relations tour, where he landed in the capital, Addis Ababa, on a luxury jet belonging to a company owned by a top advisor to the Emirati president, according to flight tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

There, according to western diplomats, he said he was prepared to talk to al-Burhan, who has largely hunkered down in Port Sudan, the country’s main gateway to Red Sea trade and home to most international organizations including the UN.

Battle lines are constantly shifting but between the two generals vying for control and the external players backing their own horse, the ultimate outcome is clear.

“The most powerful actors in Sudan — the UAE, Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia — are all united on one thing,” said Jonas Horner, an independent expert on Sudan currently advising the US State Department. “They don’t want a democratic outcome in Sudan.”