A new South Africa-wide survey shows that, while 62% of respondents support the shift from coal to renewable energy, a striking 65% have never heard of the term ‘Just Transition’. In addition, the majority of respondents expressed concern about possible negative impacts for themselves and their families, with 29% indicating that they are ‘somewhat worried’ about such impacts and 20% reporting a ‘high level of worry’.

Compiled for the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) by the Human Sciences Research Council, the survey involved some 3 100 respondents from across South Africa, making it the first nationally representative survey of public perceptions and attitudes relating to the Just Transition and climate change.

In a presentation of the results, Dr Ben Roberts and Dr Thobeka Zondi indicated that knowledge of the Just Transition was higher among those who had knowledge of, and had concerns over, climate change, and lower among climate sceptics.

Interestingly, a related spatial analysis revealed that proximity to coal mines and coal-fired power stations was associated with a moderately higher awareness of climate change, as well as less scepticism and stronger support for Just Energy Transition (JET) actions. Such proximity had no significant effect, however, on climate concern, personal pro-environmental norms, or concerns about the personal impacts of the JET.

The perceived personal negative impacts reported in the survey related mainly to concern over the potential for higher electricity prices, a loss of jobs and the possibility of it increasing loadshedding.

These concerns were inverted, however, in responses on the perceived positive impacts, which included the potential for reduced loadshedding, economic and job growth, lower electricity prices and improved health outcomes.

The authors said the results indicated “in principle” support for the Just Transition on the back of expectations of personal and national benefits, rather than environmental ones.

However, it also showed that many still had worries about the possible adverse personal impacts.

The survey also pointed to a rising awareness of climate change in South Africa, with only 17% indicating they had not heard of the concept compared with 45% in 2007.

It also showed that direct exposure to extreme weather events, such as the recent floods in KwaZulu-Natal, was a significant predictor of both awareness of, and concern about, climate change.

The PCC indicated that it intended to repeat the survey at regular intervals to keep track of public perceptions about both climate change and national Just Transition actions.