South African farmers pinched by mounting costs from the Iran war now face the added risk of an El Niño-induced drought, with implications for lower agricultural output and higher food prices.

That’s according to the nation’s main agricultural business lobby, which warned of the growing likelihood an El Niño dry spell will collide with the start of South Africa’s summer planting season in October.

“There are worrying developments on the weather outlook front, with serious implications for the farming sector, and ultimately the food supplies and prices in the country,” Agricultural Business Chamber Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo said in a note on Monday.

Rain-fed summer grains such as oilseeds, sugar cane and livestock grazing are most at risk, he said, with about 20% of the planting area of these crops under irrigation.

South Africa received plenty of rain at the start of the 2026–27 winter crop season in April, he said. But “we may encounter below-normal rainfall later in the season, which could affect the production of wheat, barley, canola and oats this year,” Sihlobo said.

That will add to pressure on farmers, who are already expected to shrink wheat plantings to the smallest area in a decade after the war caused a surge in fuel and fertiliser prices, which are major input costs for agricultural production.

The conflict has sharpened concerns about food insecurity and inflation, with food prices making up the largest item in the basket of goods used to calculate the country’s consumer price index.

South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago flagged the risk posed by an El Niño event, alongside potential fallout from the conflict, after officials held interest rates steady in March while warning that they see inflation risks to the upside.

The central bank’s models show fuel price pressures surging by 18.3% in the second quarter and the rate of food inflation peaking at 4.1% by the end of the year.