As South Africa enters the 2026/27 summer rainfall season with an increased risk of drier and hotter conditions, the Water Institute of Southern Africa (WISA) posed the question: does the country have the professional capacity to turn climate warnings into timely decisions that protect its water security?

While South Africa’s weather forecasts are not a guarantee of drought in every region, they do indicate increased risk and reinforce the need to prepare before water shortages place additional pressure on communities, agriculture and businesses.

The South African Weather Service has identified below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures as the most likely outcome across most of the country from October to December, similar to that of the Southern African Development Community’s regional outlook across much of Southern Africa during the same period.

The effects of El Niño, a natural climate pattern that can influence rainfall and temperatures, are not the same in every season or place, so the forecast should be treated as an early warning to prepare, rather than a prediction that every area will experience drought.

“Climate forecasts are valuable, but their real impact depends on how effectively we use them,” says WISA CEO Dr Lester Goldman, pointing to a need for professionals able to interpret changing conditions, assess local risks and translate reliable information into decisions before a potential water crisis becomes an emergency.

According to Goldman, South Africa already has tools to support more informed water-management decisions, including the Department of Water and Sanitation’s National Integrated Water Information System, which provides access to information on rainfall, dam levels and trends and drought status, as well as other water-resource indicators.

This access to information, however, is only one part of the equation, with local rainfall patterns, catchment conditions, groundwater availability, water demand and the capacity of water systems to withstand prolonged dry conditions requiring consideration in addition to the seasonal forecasts.

Preparedness also needs to be considered alongside the everyday work of maintaining and managing water systems, amid a wider water-service challenge, he continues, pointing to infrastructure investment, municipal service delivery and accountability requiring attention as identified by the National Water Action Plan, released by government in July 2026.

The Department of Water and Sanitation’s 2023 Blue Drop assessment found that 277 of 958 assessed water supply systems were in a critical state. The assessment considers factors including infrastructure, operational practices, monitoring and staff skills.

The findings, while not a prediction of what will happen this summer, underline why preparedness must consider the condition of water systems as well as the information available to those managing them.

“A national forecast cannot, on its own, tell every municipality, water utility or water user exactly what will happen locally. Skilled professionals are needed to interpret the available evidence, identify vulnerabilities and help decision-makers prepare for different scenarios,” says Goldman, reinforcing the view that climate resilience requires more than access to data or the existence of a contingency plan.

“It requires people with the technical knowledge and professional judgement to assess risks, work across disciplines and help decision-makers understand what those risks mean in practice.”

For WISA, the approaching summer highlights the importance of investing in the people responsible for managing South Africa’s water resources and services.

“Continuing professional development, collaboration between climate specialists and water professionals and the effective sharing of technical knowledge all have a role to play,” he explained.

Further, preparedness will depend on clear communication, with water professionals able to explain what forecasts mean, where uncertainty remains and what practical steps different water users can take.

“This helps communities and institutions make informed decisions without treating a possible drought as an inevitable outcome.”

WISA encouraged municipalities and water utilities to review their readiness for the summer season now, including checking available water resources and expected demand, identifying vulnerable parts of their systems, confirming who is responsible for responding to emerging risks and ensuring that contingency plans can be put into practice.

Plans should be reviewed as forecasts and local conditions change.

“South Africa cannot control the climate, but it can strengthen its ability to respond. Investing in professional competence, evidence-based planning and collaboration now can help us manage water risks more effectively, both during this coming season and in the years ahead,” Goldman concludes.