Programme Director;
Deputy Director-General of the Aviation Branch: Mr Zakhele Thwala;
Board Chairperson: Mr Khosa and members of the SACAA Board;
The Director of Civil Aviation, Ms Poppy Khoza;
Captains of the Aviation Industry, CEOs, aviation stakeholders;
The DOT Management present;
Distinguished Presenters;
SACAA, ACSA and ATNS Executives and staff;
Members of the Fourth Estate;
Ladies and gentlemen; and
Fellow South Africans

Introduction                                                                                

I am pleased for the honour bestowed, to be part of this prestigious and very much needed national aviation conference discourse. This opportunity available to us to assess ourselves but further discuss the future of aviation is quite critical to reach a complete recovery of the aviation industry.

Upscaling a sustainable development on policy, legislative and the regulatory trajectory that responds to the changing times.

Programme Director;

We are holding this aviation national conference in a very significant and memorable month in our history as a nation. In six days-time, on the 27th of April, we will be commemorating our National Freedom Day. In  1994,  when  the new democratic dispensation was ushered in; it provided access to revisit and review the National Transport Policy with the main objective to address the needs of all South Africans and ensure inclusivity within the changed environment, amidst constraint resources.

From the onset, government recognized that the transport sector is one of its five main priority areas for socio-economic development.

We later asserted that Transport is actually the heartbeat of South Africa’s Economic Growth and Social Development.

This assertion means that all sub-sectors of transport that is aviation, maritime, road, rail, and public transport must continuously up-scale on the creation of sustainable framework of policies, legislation and  regulations which support government’s strategies for economic, social and international development.

The current trajectory, where we have devastatingly experienced the impact of COVID-19 Pandemic, also calls for that agility to review and up-scale our collective efforts in creating a thriving policy, legislation and regulatory environment, institutions and institutional capabilities and capacity for implementation, which must produce socio-economic opportunities for economic recovery and reconstruction.

Ladies and gentlemen;

As the department of transport, we are currently concluding on the Socio-Economic Impact Analysis (SEIAS) which will enable the department to present the Comprehensive National Civil Aviation Policy to Cabinet.

We have also appointed both the Air Services Licensing Council and the International Air Services Council.

The appointment will clear the backlog of all the pending applications and amendment applications that have been lodged by the airlines.

And I believe that this is a step in the right direction in our efforts to ensure recovery and sustainability of the South African registered airlines. We have put systems in place to ensure timeous appointments of these licensing councils.

In terms of legislative developments relating to the SACAA, on

14 April 2022 the President of the Republic of South Africa signed into law the Civil Aviation Act no. 22 of 2021. In the context of civil aviation matters, this promulgation effectively closes several findings raised by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) when they audited South Africa in May 2017. Key amongst the findings being closed are those related to the independence of the Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation function.

Aviation  safety  is  paramount  and  takes  first place in air transport

Programme Director,

It is said that whether on land or In Air, safety should be practiced everywhere. And in aviation, it’s our mandate to aviate, navigate and communicate in a safe and secure environment.

In this case we cannot over-emphasize aviation safety. Although, it is viewed that suspension of operations is often an inconvenience to the industry and passengers, the safety and security of the aviation industry must come first at all times and everywhere; because saving passengers’ lives should always be our main priority.

Ladies and gentlemen;

I must reiterate what I said to SACAA during the Department of Transport’s strategy session in 2020/21. That SACAA and the industry must maintain a zero percent fatal accident rate in the scheduled airline sector and must reduce the number of accidents in the general aviation sector by 50% in the current strategy cycle, which ends in 2024/25. We have observed with grave concern the increase in general aviation accidents three years in succession, and this cannot be allowed to continue.

Current outlook for aviation growth                                          

Programme Director,

In line with our theme for today “Cleared for take-off: An outlook on the future of aviation beyond COVID-19”, let us consider what the future holds for aviation both locally and within the Region.
ICAO, in their economic impact analysis of 08 March 2022 indicates that the total number of flying passengers in the world, compared to 2019, declined by -60% in 2020, and - 49% by 2021. The situation has improved, as the ICAO expects a comparative decline of about -30% in 2022.
Although in reality, figures can be influenced by various substantial changes, such as the geographical market, the timing of outbreaks and differences in market size. I do believe that we can regard the above statistics as positive for the recovery of the sector.

IATA, in a press release issued on 01 March 2022 further paints a positive picture, as they have forecasted a potential overall traveller numbers to reach 4 billion in 2024, which exceed pre-COVID-19 levels.

Programme Director;

We do note, that not all markets or market sectors are recovering at the same pace.

For the continent of Africa, they estimate that “passenger traffic prospects are somewhat weaker in the near- term, due to slow progress in vaccinating the population, and the impact of the crisis on developing economies.”

They further estimate that “passenger numbers to/from/within Africa will recover more gradually than in other regions, reaching 76% of 2019 levels in 2022, surpassing pre-crisis levels in 2025”.

These estimates will, of course, largely depend on the recovery of the economy in African states, which will among others depend on the growth of tourism and other vital sectors, investment in infrastructure, and an increase in business flights.

My question to this conference today is; how do we ensure that we think out of the box and the confines of what is said about Africa, and create enabling environments to fast track the recovery of the aviation sector in South Africa specifically and Africa in general?

Some possible solutions: the SADC – Civil Aviation Committee Meeting

Distinguished guests;

As a solution towards increasing passenger numbers in Africa, at the Civil Aviation Committee (CAC) meeting, held from 19 to 20 May 2021, it was noted that regarding the operationalisation of the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), only 34 African Union Member States have signed the Solemn Commitment. The remaining 20 Member State must be persuaded to sign as this will increase our market share as a continent.

Aviation growth prospects in terms of the global pandemic

Programme Director,

As we look to the future, let’s consider the recent past and ask ourselves, what has the global pandemic taught us? Not only that, but if the pandemic had to evolve further, or another pandemic had to strike, would we cope better?

Although nobody envisaged such a pervasive communicable disease as COVID-19, when it struck we were somewhat ready, but we had to intensify our efforts. Our Aviation Medicine experts, taking their cue from the Department of Health, were quick to act and to do what was required.

In fact, South Africa is one of the few countries that relaxed restrictions on travel within 3 months domestically and within seven months internationally; and opted to rely on the multi- layered COVID-19 prevention protocols that were adapted from the ICAO CART and WHO guidelines.

Not only that, but even at this very moment, the Civil Aviation Pandemic Preparedness Plan, called PHEIC in brief, has been revised by the Aviation Medicine experts of the SACAA, with the support of the Department of Transport.

The roles of the aviation authority regarding PHEIC are to ensure the availability, continuity and sustainability of critical air transport services. It is also to coordinate and facilitate the implementation of health and non-health measures.

As we look to the future, a coordinated and timely response as proposed by the PHEIC will ensure that the implementation of health measures is a multi-agency effort. Well-coordinated measures will avoid confusion, inconsistencies and the duplication of resources.

Rapid deployment and timely implementation of measures at the initial outbreak of a communicable disease are vital to protect the health and welfare of travellers, staff and the general public, as well as to minimise and mitigate the spread of communicable diseases through air travel.

It is indeed reassuring to know that the aviation industry is continuing to prepare itself in case of further significant incidents of communicable diseases in the future.

Ladies and gentlemen;

I am therefore very appreciative of the fact that South Africa was already preparing for such events, and training others, when the pandemic struck. South Africa has for years been part of the global discourse on pandemics through bodies such as CAPSCA, such discourse and collaboration remains essential.

A firm and tested response solution to unexpected communicable diseases means that we can look forward to a more sustainable aviation industry.

Aviation security, aviation safety and aviation growth in the future.

Programme Director;

The technology advancement has landed, and we need to develop capabilities and capacity to have, test and utilize such technological and innovative solutions.

In this regard, in terms of aviation security, it is interesting to note that biometrics will go further than scanning the face and iris of the eyes. Artificial intelligence will be able to read criminal intent, personality, and even guilt, by means of neural interfaces and neural technologies.

Artificial intelligence and high-definition intelligence will be used to replace polygraphs. Wi-Fi will be used to detect illness and mood, and to interpret the behaviour of passengers. Some of these may raise issues of privacy and data privacy.

On aviation safety, we have noted that artificial intelligence is being increasingly used to design new materials for aircrafts. It is indeed changing the way we power our aircrafts. We can already foresee how we will need to prepare ourselves to keep new developments within the boundaries of safety and security, while fully respecting the privacy of our clients.

What would these advances mean for aviation safety and security?

Ladies and gentlemen;

So, what would technological advances mean for the safety and security of air transport?

In recent years, with the Boeing 737 Max passenger jet crashes, we were once again reminded that safety systems should always come before convenience and profit. This is especially true in terms of technology such as software. The final report on the Lion Air crash by the Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee and the interim analysis of the Ethiopia's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau on the crash in Addis Ababa, both cite flaws with the application of the new software, as largely being the cause of these accidents.

This should alert us to the other side of the coin – the dangers of technology – and that we can never assume that automation will simply fix everything; but rather be cautious before we implement it.

Preparing as well as training pilots and maintenance engineers adequately on new aircraft systems and new technologies will remain our greatest priority. With that being said, the aviation industry still remains the safest form of transport around the world.

In fact, IATA reports that ‘In 2018, the fatal accident rate was 0.28 per one million flights, the equivalent of one fatal accident for every 4.2 million flights. I purposely mention year 2018 because aviation activity was at a high.

Conclusion                                                                                 

Ladies and gentlemen, we are entering ‘a brave new world’. It is a new era where we have learnt much and are still learning from the pandemic; but it is also an era where new ways of living will continue to surprise us; where we will be able to take air taxis without pilots, perhaps have our own flying cars, and when we will have a vast array of options for getting to our destinations faster.

Whatever the future may hold, we can be sure that we will always need the guardians of aviation safety and security. Automation can fail, and human beings are fallible. However, through checks and balances, safety and security systems and strategies, we will continue to be diligent in keeping our air transport safe and secure.

Da Vinci once said and I quote, “when once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return.” Close quote.
In closing, I say, let us rise above the earth, to the top of the atmosphere and beyond, for only then we will fully understand the world in which we live in.

I, thank you.