Four weeks ahead of the twenty-first Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in Paris, Environmental Affairs Minister Edna Molewa has come out against what she describes as a reluctance by developed nations to agree to ambitious measures aimed at limiting average global temperature increases to the targeted 2 °C.

This followed the submission of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) by parties to the UNFCCC Secretariat by October 1, which outlined respective domestic preparations towards achieving the intended temperature cap.

However, Molewa told a climate change breakfast organised by the Department of Environmental Affairs, in Centurion, on Monday, that a recent Civil Society Equity Review of INDCs had concluded that the emission reduction ambitions of all major developed countries fell short of their “fair share” in both domestic emission reduction and international finance.

Further to this, though the majority of developing countries had made mitigation pledges that exceeded or broadly met their fair share, they also had mitigation potentials that exceeded their pledges.

Moreover, she noted that a synthesis by the UNFCCC Secretariat of all INDCs submitted thus far had concluded that the sum of all emission reduction pledges was likely to put the world on track to an average 3 °C temperature increase – exceeding the targeted global threshold.

In the African context, this implied a 4 °C to 6 °C temperature rise in many countries.

“We are willing to do more, but developed countries must show the necessary leadership. They too must take ambitious mitigation commitments and, most importantly, comply with their Convention obligations on Adaptation, Finance and Technology.

“We will continue to negotiate in good faith and do everything in our power to reach a deal that results in a strengthened and durable international climate change regime. A deal that ensures the full, effective and sustained implementation of the convention, through an agreement that is applicable to all,” she asserted.

POLITICAL HOTBED
Molewa further called on parties to urgently ratify the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol to enable it to come into force, arguing for countries to honour existing obligations and enhance current action.

She further a described a “complex political context” informing the upcoming global climate change negotiations.

“Though there can be little doubt [that] significant political will exists to reach an agreement in Paris, there are, nevertheless, four major areas of political divergence that need to be solved in the 14-day negotiating period,” said the Minister.

The first of these, Molewa advanced, was the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities, which developed countries had made clear they would not endorse if the current divide between developed countries, developing countries and donor countries were maintained.

On the other hand, developing countries insisted that the Paris Agreement was not about rewriting the convention by creating categories that previously did not exist.

“Our position is that changing this distinction effectively and unfairly transfers climate responsibility to developing countries,” she said.

Commenting on climate change finance, Molewa held that a key issue in this discussion was the demand from developing countries that a clear pathway be outlined for reaching the Cancun commitment from developed countries to mobilise $100-billion a year by 2020.

In addition, developed countries must clearly outline and quantify a post-2020 commitment to scale up the mobilisation of finance beyond $100-billion.

“This is part of the confidence-building and mutual reassurance that developing countries require for them to take major steps forward in the Paris Agreement.

Developed countries, on the other hand, assert that it is difficult for them to quantify long-term financial commitments when their Parliamentary budget appropriation processes operate on an yearly basis.

“They also assert that the pool of climate finance contributors must be widened to include so-called emerging economies, such as China, and that recipients of climate aid must be reduced to only the vulnerable and low-income countries,” she commented.

On the legal front, the US, along with several other developed and developing States, had made it clear they would not be party to a Paris Agreement that inscribed the INDCs as legally binding requirements.

However, this issue could resolve itself once a solution to differentiated responsibilities was found.

“Finally, on the ambition gap, it is now clear that, collectively, the INDCs will not reach the level of ambition that science indicates is required to keep the world below 2 °C.

“The Paris Agreement must, therefore, find a way to address this ambition gap. This is a survival issue for many African countries and small island developing States. Currently, there is great divergence on how to do this,” the Minister maintained.

ADAPTATION FOCUS
Meanwhile, a key position of the UNFCCC Africa grouping was that adaptation remained a global responsibility, with the adaptation burden on developing countries growing heavier.

“A global goal for adaptation must, therefore, be part of the Paris Agreement. The deal must have adaptation at its core and there must be an ambitious outcome on finance, technology and capacity building to support the adaptation and mitigation efforts of developing countries,” she said.

Demonstrating the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures were required, the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change revealed that greenhouse-gas emissions rose more rapidly between 2000 and 2010 than in the previous three decades, growing by roughly one-billion tons a year.

In addition, the UN Environmental Emissions Gap Report revealed that global emissions in 2030 would, most likely, be 14-billion tons above the level that would be consistent with the 2 °C target.

It further concluded that, by 2050, Africa’s adaptation costs could rise to $50-billion a year, if global warming were to remain below 2 °C, and up to $100-billion a year for a temperature increase of 4 °C.

“We know we shoulder an immense responsibility to deal with climate change and its impacts. That said, we do indeed have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future for our country,” commented Molewa.