The swift collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria threatens a key Russian airbase in the country that Moscow has depended on to project influence throughout Africa.

Russia uses the Khmeimim air base to send personnel and military supplies to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — all of which have experienced recent coups and cut ties with the West while moving closer to Moscow. That air bridge has enabled it to rebuild some of its Cold War-era clout on the continent, particularly in places like the Central African Republic and Sudan.

Together, Khmeimim and Tartous navy base, which accepts Russian fuel and supplies via ship, have allowed Russia to carry out a cheap, effective expansion of its military, political and economic influence in Africa. Now the network that sustains Russia’s operations on the continent — which fill a vacuum left by departing Western forces — may need a complete overhaul.

“Without a reliable air bridge, Russia’s ability to project power in Africa collapses,” said Anas el-Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute, a think tank based in Libya. “Russia’s entire operational strategy in the Mediterranean and Africa is hanging by a thread.”

While Russia, which has supported authorities in eastern Libya, has operational capacities at four Libyan airbases — Al-Khadim, Al-Jufra, Ghardabiya and Brak Al-Shati — they would all be too far to use in a revamped bridge from Moscow because of airspace restrictions in Europe, el-Gomati said.

The Syrian airbase would be a “substantial loss” for African operations, said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a defense think tank. “All supplies went via Khmeimim - this is especially important for a country without a port such as the Central African Republic.”

Rebuilding influence

Moscow’s effort to rebuild influence in Africa effectively began in 2018, when mercenaries from the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group deployed to the landlocked CAR to defend its embattled president against a rebel assault. In 2019, the fighters played a key role in an attempt by eastern Libyan leader Khalifa Haftar to seize the capital, Tripoli.

It has since sent fighters to Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, along with weapons, growing its greatest global footprint outside the former Soviet bloc. That support is in jeopardy — but people close to those governments argue that Russia will find a way to continue to aid them.

Russia “would have a plan B” so its supply routes to Africa remain intact whether by using Libya as a more robust staging post or accessing CAR through ports in Cameroon or Congo-Brazzaville, said Fidele Gouandjika, an adviser to the president of the CAR. “There will be no repercussions for the Central African Republic,” he said.

Gouandjika added that CAR was ready to help the Kremlin in sending supplies and soldiers from Russia to governments in the Sahel if needed.

Ibrahim Hamidou, head of communications for Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine, who was appointed by Niger’s military junta in 2023, echoed the sentiment. “The fall of Assad won’t change our relations,” he said. “Russia can find other ways, through Turkey for example, to support Niger.”

While Turkey, a NATO member, has allowed some Russian cargo flights to Libya to fly through its airspace, there’s no immediate suggestion it would act as a replacement for Moscow’s Syrian air bridge, particularly given the pair’s interests in Africa often diverge.

Monique Yeli Kam, a politician in Burkina Faso who supports the military junta and its strengthened ties with Russia, also suggested Libya as an option to help Moscow “maintain its influence on the continent.”

Russia has also played a key role in Sudan’s 20-month-long civil war, recently throwing its weight behind the national army in its fight against the Rapid Support Forces militia. It’s continuing to push for a base on the country’s Red Sea coast, a long-standing dream that would in theory broaden its logistics network.

Still, retaining Russia’s sprawling web of influence in Africa will not be easy, according to Ulf Laessing, Sahel program director at the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, a German think tank.

“Assad’s fall will massively hamper Russia’s Africa military operations,” he said. “All flights to supply mercenaries, rotate troops, bring in fresh ammunition and weapons were routed through Syria. It’s too far to fly with a fully loaded transport plane from Russia to Africa.”

“Russia will have to scale back its Africa engagement and it will be much more costly,” Laessing said.