This policy paper provides an overview of a longer monograph that provides long-term forecasts of fragility in Africa. Using the International Futures system (IFs) data-analysis and forecasting tool, the paper provides a long-term forecast of 26 fragile African countries. They are chosen on the basis of comparative lists of fragile countries based on indicators that reflect the fragility syndrome. In conducting the forecast, the authors argue that fragility should be understood as a syndrome, or set of related conditions, that operates in a system that is mutually reinforcing.

Written by Dr Jakkie Cilliers, executive director at the Institute for Security Studies; and Professor Tim Sisk, professor of international and comparative politics at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver.

Project funding thanks to the Open Society Foundation for South Africa (OSF-SA). The ISS is also grateful for the support of the following core partners: the governments of Norway, Sweden, Australia and Denmark.