Zimbabwe’s decade-long economic and political crisis from 1998 to 2009 will go down as one of the worst periods in the country’s history. However, the unity government of 2009 to 2013 between the Zimbabwe African Union Patriotic Front (ZANU PF) and the two Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) formations brought economic stability to a nation that had almost collapsed. This coalition government ushered in a new constitution to replace the over-patched Lancaster House constitution, leading to the July 2013 elections, which ZANU PF won, giving it the mandate to rule the Southern African nation for another five years. Since ZANU PF emerged victorious in these elections it has been struggling to revive the declining economy as intensifying succession battles within the party have seen it concentrating on its internal politics at the expense of Zimbabwe’s economic recovery.

This CAI paper discusses the prevailing economic and political narrative in Zimbabwe and its impact on the country’s future after years of political and economic turmoil.

Rhetoric vs. reality

Even though President Mugabe succeeded in out-manoeuvring his most prominent rival in the recent elections, he has had less success with the economy, which continues to shrink. This is coupled with a dilapidated infrastructure, uncertainty of how and where to get money to pay civil servants who are already underpaid, frequent erratic power cuts in most parts of the country and massive deindustrialisation which has seen many companies shutting down and thousands of workers being retrenched.⁽²⁾ The government immediately requires significant foreign direct investment to revitalise aging infrastructure and the flagging agriculture industry and to boost production and exports. Poverty is endemic and unemployment is still staggeringly high. ZANU PF may have promised 1.2 million jobs ahead of the 2013 elections, but the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) reports that more than 1,800 workers lost their jobs in the first quarter of 2014.⁽³⁾ For economic recovery there is need for the implementation of economic policies that promote investment and encourage growth.

Against the backdrop of the creation of brilliant economic policies that were soon shelved before they were implemented,⁽⁴⁾ the ZANU PF-led government has introduced an economic blueprint which they say will catapult Zimbabwe back to its status as the breadbasket of Southern Africa and a regional leader. The Zimbabwe Agenda for Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation (Zim Asset 2013-2018) economic policy was drafted from the ZANU PF election manifesto and aims to “achieve sustainable development and social equity anchored on indigenisation, empowerment and employment creation which will be largely propelled by the judicious exploitation of the country’s abundant human and natural resources.”⁽⁵⁾

The five year plan is, however, packed with political rhetoric, ideological contradictions and shortcomings that bring into question both the soundness of its foundations and its feasibility. For example, as Charles Mangongera points out in a Zimbabwe Independent opinion piece, “on one hand the document espouses the idea of using ‘its own local resources, which are in abundance and readily available for full exploitation and utilisation’, while on the other, it proposes engaging bilateral and multilateral funding partners for support.”⁽⁶⁾ The need for this contradiction within the policy is clear when one considers that despite the country having abundant resources, it needs foreign direct investment of capital and technology to exploit them. Furthermore, the government will require at least US$ 27 billion to fund projects under Zim Asset but is faced with an estimated US$ 10.7 billion in external debt which it has been struggling to pay for years.

Without investment it is likely that Zim Asset is doomed, just like its predecessors, to remain only political rhetoric unlikely to achieve its stated goals, and the economy will continue to shrink leading to economic woes reminiscent of the pre-unity government period. The BRICS countries are identified in the document as potential funders, but Brazil and China have already made it clear that they are reluctant to fund these projects, citing policy inconsistency. Indeed, many potential investors are shunning the country because of inconsistent policies as well as its history of lack of respect for property rights associated with Zimbabwe’s economic indigenisation programme.⁽⁷⁾ Adding another unclear, inconsistent policy will do little to attract the investment Zimbabwe so desperately needs.

Nasty succession battles

Along with the drafting of inconsistent polices that will do little to attract investment, Zimbabwe’s economic woes are being exacerbated further by internal politics. Even as 90-year-old Robert Mugabe’s mortality becomes a reality to everyone, he has not yet “anointed” his successor. As a result, ZANU PF has been plagued by intense succession battles which have pitted two factions led by the current Vice President, Joice Mujuru, and the Justice Minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa, against each other for party dominance in the event of the demise of the president of the party in the absence of a named successor and ahead of the party’s elective congresses in December 2014. The intensifying warring ­̶ demonstrated by the recent ZANU PF Youth and Women’s League conferences being marred by allegations of kidnapping, intimidation and open vote-buying; Mugabe apologising for the “embarrassing” conduct of some of the party’s politburo members; and the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs’ attacking the party’s secretary of administration in a local newspaper⁽⁸⁾ ­̶ has remained the party’s top concern. This diversion from the important task of resuscitating the failing economy to internal politics continues to worsen the already dire economic situation.

And the party’s problems may simply worsen come December. Confirmation at the party congress of Robert Mugabe's wife Grace as head of the ZANU PF Women's League could complicate the succession battle further. According to Rashweat Mukundu of the political think-tank Zimbabwe Democracy Institute, the appointment represents “a continuation of the power struggle within ZANU PF and will add to the confusion over Mugabe’s successor.”⁽⁹⁾ However, it seems he is not looking for a successor just yet. In her first address to the party, Grace Mugabe confirmed that her husband would seek re-election at the December congress, saying that ZANU PF would “collapse” without him at the helm.⁽¹⁰⁾ Grace also stated that her entry into politics is merely the start of her career, which lends some credence to rampant speculation that Robert Mugabe is setting in motion the installation of a Mugabe dynasty.

Concluding remarks

Zimbabwe needs investment fast, and as such needs to create an economic climate conducive to investment and doing business. Neither Zim Asset, a policy apparently founded on political rhetoric and ideological contradictions and born of an election manifesto which has seen little, if any, of its promises realised, nor the pervasive infighting within the ruling party will achieve this. The rhetoric and ambiguity rife within Zim Asset and its questionable feasibility point to the economic policy’s major objective as being winning sympathy and support for the ruling party. Due to its several flaws and shortcomings, it is very unlikely that this policy will address the current economic challenges facing the Southern Africa nation, and It may be more useful as a propaganda tool used to entrench ZANU PF’s political power by appealing to the poor, than as an economic policy that will revive an economy which already suffered dearly under ZANU PF rule. The government is thus unlikely to amend or scrap the policy, as this would result in loss of public support. Until more sound policies that are not self-serving to the ruling government are implemented and major structural reform is undertaken, Zimbabwe’s economic recovery will not be fully realised, and the current state of affairs renders any progress a pipedream.

It is doubtful the government will give the economy priority when its own house is not yet in order. The current infighting within the ruling party is very likely to continue unabated until the President and First Secretary of the ruling party anoints his successor. As the elective conference in December draws closer, the battles will intensify as factional leaders try to position themselves as likely successors to the old president who should now be close to retirement considering his advanced years. However, the electoral congress may not even see an end to ZANU PF’s focus on its internal disarray. Neither Robert’s re-election nor Grace’s apparent political ambition is likely to sit well with Mujuru or Mnangagwa, or anyone else vying for the top spot.

Written by Tendai A. Chikakayi ⁽¹⁾

NOTES:

(1) Tendai A Chikakayi is a Research Associate with CAI with a particular interest in regional integration, peace and security issues and socio-economic development in Africa. Contact Tendai through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Africa Watch unit ( africa.watch@consultancyafrica.com). Edited byÂÂÂ Nicky Berg.ÂÂÂ Research Manager: Claire Furphy.
(2) For statistical data, see Manneko Monyau, M. and Bandara, A., ‘Zimbabwe’, African Economic Outlook, http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org.
(3) Bandauko, E., ‘Factional politics in a fractured Zim’, Zimbabwe Independent, 12 September 2014, http://www.theindependent.co.zw.
(4) See Rukuni, C., ‘Zimbabwe: ZIMPREST launched: Will Zimbabwe get it right this time?’, AllAfrica, 20 April 1998, http://allafrica.com.
(5) ‘Zimbabwe Agenda for Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation (Zim Asset)’, 2013, Government of the Republic of Zimbabwe, http://www.herald.co.zw.
(6) Mangongera, C., ‘ZimAsset will not solve our problems’, Zimbabwe Independent, 6 December 2013, http://www.theindependent.co.zw.
(7) These policy issues, among other things, have contributed to Zimbabwe being ranked 158th out of 183 countries in the World Bank Doing Business Report and 133rd out of 134 countries in the World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness index over the past five years.
(8) Kuwaza, K., ‘Zanu PF infighting spells more doom’, Zimbabwe Independent, 22 August 2014, http://www.theindependent.co.zw.
(9) Jongwe, F., ‘Grace Mugabe joins fray over Zim succession’, Mail & Guardian, 31 July 2014, http://mg.co.za.
(10) Thornycroft P. and McElroy, D., ‘Grace Mugabe launches political career at rally’, The Telegraph, 2 October 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk.