The next 14 days will determine the fate of South African food prices over the next 12 months as the summer grains, namely maize, sunflower and soya beans, are in a “critical stage”, Grain SA CEO Jannie de Villiers advised on Thursday.

“At this stage rain in the next week can, at best, get us to a break even situation, but the odds are against us. Very little rain is predicted for the period ahead,” commented Grain SA.

This statement followed an aerial survey of the north-west Free State and the North West province early on Thursday morning by a group of executives and Grain SA staff members.

The extreme heat and dry conditions being experienced in these areas had caused the crop to deteriorate much faster than had been expected, with De Villiers reporting that damage in large areas was already irreversible.

The probability of a surplus maize crop was less than 10%, based on what Grain SA had seen and reports from its members.

Therefore, South Africa’s import infrastructure would need to prepare to be placed under “tremendous” pressure, as the country had not imported substantial quantities of late.

The organisation believed that white maize production in the west would be more significantly affected by the crisis, highlighting that many farmers in the western parts could not secure crop insurance as foreign underwriters regarded the area as too risky.

In the eastern production areas of Mpumalanga and the Free State, where the majority of the yellow maize was produced, follow up rain was in desperate need.

“Some areas were still promising, but it is scattered,” noted Grain SA.

Irrigated maize, however, was also suffering as a result of being cut off for silage, “probably owing to load shedding”, which was expected to have a negative impact on the stable production in the irrigation areas.

With regard to sunflower plants, the organisation reported many hectares dying in the heat before forming flowers.

“It is not just this year that will be affected, [as] the input finance and moisture base for next year will be adversely affected,” Grain SA emphasised.