According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, the petrol price may be lowered in the first week of May. Diesel users may still face a hike, though.

With more than a week to go before fuel prices are fixed, the current data show that 95 octane petrol is set to be lowered by around 34c a litre, and 93 octane by 32c. According to current estimates, diesel will rise by between 75c and 81c, and illuminating paraffin by 68c/l.

Local fuel prices are determined by international oil prices, as well as the dollar-rand value, as South Africa buys oil in dollars. Movements in the oil and rand prices before month-end will still impact the final prices for May.

Petrol and diesel prices have surged by more than a third over the past year.

This was mostly due to soaring oil prices, especially amid the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of crude oil, and it has been locked out of western markets, triggering rallying oil prices.

But after Brent oil was pushed close to $140 a barrel last month, it has now fallen back to below $110. The rand is currently under pressure, though. After reaching R14.45/$ earlier this month, the fallout of load shedding, the economic impact of the KwaZulu-Natal floods and other factors pushed it to R15.21 by Thursday morning.

Next month’s fuel prices will continue to benefit from a temporary cut of R1.50 in the general fuel levy for April and May. This helped to limit the petrol price hike to around 36c last month, and to R1.53 for diesel.