In a November 2012 report, the World Bank (WB) postulates that the global temperature is likely to increase by as much as 4 degrees Celsius (°C) by 2060.⁽²⁾ This is double the 2°C aim that the world’s states agreed to in 2010. According to the same report, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) level in the atmosphere is now 391 parts per million (ppm) compared to the preindustrial level of 278 ppm.⁽³⁾ The WB report is yet another alarming indication to politicians, corporations and individuals to take the climate threat seriously, and to work toward a less climate-constrained future.

While the augmented temperatures and carbon dioxide levels pose serious threats to people and to wildlife, there are other contributors to environmental degradation and the so-called ‘ecological crisis’ that gained notoriety in the 1960s.⁽⁴⁾ One often overlooked aspect of this crisis is peak phosphorus – the point at which the maximum phosphorus output is reached – after which production will start to decline. This CAI paper underscores and analyses the use of phosphorus in relation to future food prices and food security, and suggests possible ways to decrease our dependence on this non-renewable resource.

Phosphorus – an essential chemical element

Phosphorus is a non-metallic chemical element. It is chemically bound in both deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and ribonucleic acid (RNA), and it is therefore essential for all living cells. In people, phosphorus comprises approximately 1% of a person’s total body weight, and fulfils numerous functions:

The main function of phosphorus is in the formation of bones and teeth. It plays an important role in the body's utilization of carbohydrates and fats and in the synthesis of protein for the growth, maintenance, and repair of cells and tissues. It is also crucial for the production of Adenosine triphosphate (ATP), a molecule the body uses to store energy. Phosphorus works with the B vitamins. It also assists in the contraction of muscles, in the functioning of kidneys, in maintaining the regularity of the heartbeat, and in nerve conduction.⁽⁵⁾

Phosphorus is equally important to plants, humans and animals, as it is crucial for not only photosynthesis, but also for passing on the genetic code from one generation to the next.⁽⁶⁾ In addition, insufficient phosphorus slows down the carbohydrate production in plants.⁽⁷⁾ Due to the vital role that phosphorus plays in the development of plants, the chemical element is, in combination with nitrogen and potassium, developed into synthetic fertilisers, and as much as 90% of phosphorus is used for exactly that purpose.⁽⁸⁾

Phosphorus as a poorly managed mineral

Phosphorus is an abundant mineral; the earth’s crust consists of approximately 0.13% phosphorus,⁽⁹⁾ which, even though it may not sound like much, is surpassed by only 10 other chemical elements.⁽¹⁰⁾ Therefore, the term ‘peak phosphorus’, at first, gives the impression of being an unlikely notion. However, peak phosphorus is an impending reality: an overwhelming majority of the phosphorus on the planet either exists in concentrations too low to be practically and economically viable for mining, is not accessible, or is contaminated by other elements.⁽¹¹⁾ Moreover, our heavy usage of phosphorus, especially in fertilisers, rapidly depletes those easily accessible depots that exist. For example, phosphorus used in fertilisers is mined from phosphate rock. One ton of phosphate rock can generate approximately 130 tons of grain, and at the current rate of food production, agriculture requires circa 170 million tons of phosphate rock per year.⁽¹²⁾

At present, the largest phosphate mine is located in Florida, United States (US).⁽¹³⁾ The US is also the second largest phosphorus producer, surpassed only by China.⁽¹⁴⁾ However, the US has reached its peak production and is now importing around 10% of its total needs from Morocco,⁽¹⁵⁾ while China is only producing phosphorus for its domestic market.⁽¹⁶⁾ Morocco⁽¹⁷⁾ is the world’s third largest phosphate producer and accounts for more than one third of the world’s total export.⁽¹⁸⁾ This makes the North African country, which boasts larger reserves of the precious mineral than the rest of the world combined, by far the largest exporter of phosphorus.⁽¹⁹⁾

Morocco’s dominant position as a source and producer of phosphorus is a cause for concern. This concern stems from the fact that there exists potential for Morocco to single-handedly bring about a hyperinflation of the price of this mineral, similar to the oil situation of 1973. The oil crisis in 1973 came about after an embargo by the Organisation of Arab Oil Producing Countries (OAPEC), which resulted in a 400% oil price increase.⁽²⁰⁾ What would happen to the global phosphorus trade if Morocco were subject to a revolution, or if war was to be sparked between Western Sahara and the Moroccan imperial power, or if the country for other reasons would restrict its phosphorus export? The OAPEC’s actions caused fuel prices to skyrocket in the 1970s, and there is no reason not to expect that the Moroccan King, Mohammed VI, could, in a similar fashion, influence phosphorus prices. In fact, there is evidence that the strategy of the Moroccan king is to drive up the price of the commodity,⁽²¹⁾ which in turn will affect fertiliser prices and food prices as a result of the main uses of this mineral. Apart from these concerns regarding the price of the mineral, Moroccan phosphorus production carries an ethical dilemma as well. Most of Morocco’s phosphorus resources are located in the occupied Western Sahara. The consequence therefore is that companies and consumers are, knowingly or unknowingly, supporting an occupation that has been deemed illegal by the United Nations (UN).⁽²²⁾

The exact year when phosphorus production is forecasted to peak and start declining is a matter of debate. According to some scientists, the process of peaking and declining can take place as early as 2035.⁽²³⁾ Other researchers argue that peak phosphorus is not going to take place for another 300 to 400 years,⁽²⁴⁾ while yet another group has claimed that peak phosphorus occurred already back in 1989.⁽²⁵⁾ While it is true that the production reached a “mini peak” in that year, this peak was mostly due to a decreased demand in the states that formerly made up the Soviet Union, as well as new policies in Western Europe and North America that premiered a more efficient use of fertilisers.⁽²⁶⁾ The total mining of phosphate rock has, in recent years, surpassed the level that was attained in 1989.⁽²⁷⁾ Despite not knowing exactly when it is set to happen, peak phosphorus is a looming problem for the future, and if nothing is done about it, the consequences are likely to be dire.

Phosphorus, food security and eutrophication

The global population currently stands at roughly 7 billion people. One reason for why the planet can sustain and feed such a large number of people can be attributed to the Green Revolution,⁽²⁸⁾ which took place from the 1940s through the 1970s. A major aspect of the Green Revolution was the high yielding crop varieties that were developed during that time.⁽²⁹⁾ The higher yielding crops were in need of more nutriments, which led to the development of synthetic fertilisers. In fact, the crop varieties that were developed during this time were designed to respond to fertilisers and cannot grow sufficiently without them.⁽³⁰⁾ At present, commercial fertilisers account for between 40% and 60% of the world’s food production.⁽³¹⁾

According to UN estimations, the world population will be around 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100.⁽³²⁾ The demand for phosphorus follows the size of the population and is thus predicted to increase at the same pace as the global population.⁽³³⁾ Phosphorus is a prerequisite for a food secure world, in the sense that phosphorus is used in fertilisers to enhance food production, and even though phosphorus in the form of easily accessible phosphate rock is at least a few decades away from running out, the mineral can still affect food prices and thus also food security.

With the phosphate output set to peak, prices will, much like the prices of crude oil, become increasingly unpredictable, and spikes in fertiliser prices may occur as a result.⁽³⁴⁾ In 2008, China imposed a 135% export tariff on phosphorus in order to secure its own domestic food production.⁽³⁵⁾ This effectively halted export of the mineral from the world’s leading producer and, as a result, fertiliser prices increased by as much as 800% that year.⁽³⁶⁾ Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the poorest and most food insecure region in the world, and farmers in landlocked African countries especially are already facing higher fertiliser prices than other developing countries.⁽³⁷⁾ Volatility on the fertiliser market will thus disproportionately affect Africa.

A side effect of the current use of phosphorus-based fertilisers is eutrophication;⁽³⁸⁾ virtually none of the phosphorus that is used in agriculture is recovered. Instead, almost all of this valuable material spills out into the environment where “it mostly flows down sewers and agricultural drains into rivers and lakes, where it feeds the growth of toxic cyanobacteria and consumes oxygen, creating eutrophication and ‘dead zones’.”⁽³⁹⁾

The world is currently dependent on the mining of phosphate rock in order to produce enough food to sustain the growing population. Similar to fossil fuels, such a dependency on a finite resource is unsustainable. In order to secure sufficient nutrition for the world’s population, presently and also in the future when phosphate becomes increasingly scarce, more sustainable approaches must be developed. Examples of such approaches are explored in the next section.

Breaking our dependence on non-renewable phosphate rock

As stated in the beginning of this paper, phosphorus is essential to all life on the planet, and, as opposed to fossil fuels for example, we cannot adapt to a phosphorus-free society since there simply are no alternatives to phosphorus. Moreover, in order to sustain the earth’s growing population, phosphorus-based fertilisers will be needed in increasing amounts. The finite phosphorus resources must thus be used more sensibly.

There is no single approach to a sustainable phosphorus cycle. Instead, phosphorus must be used more efficiently from the mine to the fork.⁽⁴⁰⁾ Phosphorus goes through many different steps from mining of the rock to the finished fertiliser and then to the plants that we finally consume. From these steps, there are substantial losses in phosphorus amounts. For example, “it has been estimated that 33% of the P [phosphorus] is lost through mining, processing, and other metallurgical operations. An additional 10% is lost in transportation and handling. The overall mining efficiency in China, for example, was only 49% in 2000.”⁽⁴¹⁾ These major spills of a vital resource are less than ideal, but it is unclear exactly what the industry can do to improve efficiency.⁽⁴²⁾ Improving efficiency and reducing spills should therefore be an area for further research.

Perhaps the most important aspect for reducing our dependence on mined phosphate rock includes recycling and reusing organic waste. While animal manure is used as a fertiliser in most parts of the world, phosphorus can be recuperated from “mixed wastewater streams, or from separate organic waste fractions, including urine, faeces, greywater … animal carcasses and slaughterhouse waste, food waste, detergents (laundry, dishwashing), other industrial wastes, [and] crop residues.”⁽⁴³⁾ A urine-separating toilet has been developed for the purpose of reusing phosphorus in human urine,⁽⁴⁴⁾ and in Pakistan and other parts of Asia, vegetables are fertilised with wastewater in some urban areas.⁽⁴⁵⁾ Nonetheless, potentiation, as well as development and implementation of new technologies, are dependent on economic incentives, and so far, mining of phosphate rock is so cheap that these measures do not pay off under all conditions.⁽⁴⁶⁾ Tax reliefs and subsidies could therefore be valuable policy changes in order to make the phosphorus industry sustainable in the long term.

Finally, a meat-based diet requires between two to three times more phosphorus than a vegetarian diet.⁽⁴⁷⁾ Reducing meat consumption is therefore an efficient way to decrease the consumption of phosphorus.

Concluding remarks

As shown in this paper, peak phosphorus is a problem area for the future. Phosphorus is used in synthetic fertilisers and the mineral is needed to assure food security for a growing global population. Despite the importance of the material, there is significant disagreement between researchers as to when peak phosphorus will occur. While some argue that it will take place around 2035, others claim that there is enough phosphate rock to last another 300 to 400 years. In stark contrast, some researchers even claim that peak phosphorus already occurred in 1989. From this disagreement it is clear that more research is needed in order to better understand the urgency of the issue. Regardless of when it will occur, be it in 30 or 300 years, better resource management is crucial since peak phosphorus is a future reality.

Although alternatives to the current mining methods do exist, due to the low prices of phosphate rock, potentiation and different recovery technologies lack the necessary economic incentives to be properly implemented. Economic instruments such as tax reductions and subsidies of these new technologies could be vital for a phosphorus-secure future. Furthermore, the uneven distribution of the resource around the globe is another source for concern; the vast majority of the world’s phosphate rock is located in Morocco and Western Sahara. This gives the North African country the potential to influence the prices of the commodity not unlike the way OAPEC affected the world’s oil prices in 1973. An additional concern is Morocco’s political situation. For instance, what would happen to the global phosphorus trade if uprisings like the Arab Spring of 2011 were to subjugate the country?

By and large, despite its importance, phosphorus-security is an issue that is often overlooked. This paper has accentuated the importance of phosphorus for living beings and for a food secure future; and it is important that the academic community, politicians and corporations take the appropriate action to timeously address this challenge. Fertilisers account for some 40% to 60% of the world’s food production, and if the mineral were to run out, starvation on a massive scale is very likely.

Written by Oskar Holst ⁽¹⁾

NOTES:

(1) Contact Oskar Holst through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Enviro Africa Unit (enviro.africa@consultancyafrica.com). This CAI discussion paper was developed with the assistance of Angela Kariuki and was edited by Liezl Stretton.
(2) ‘Turn down the heat: Why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided’, Executive summary, A report for The World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, November 2012, http://climatechange.worldbank.org.
(3) Ibid.
(4) Barry, J., 2007. Environment and social theory (2nd edition). Routledge: Abingdon.
(5) ‘Phosphorus in diet’, Medline Plus, http://www.nlm.nih.gov.
(6) Anon., 1999. Functions of phosphorus in plants. Better crops, 83(1), pp. 6-8, http://www.ipni.net.
(7) Ibid.
(8) Lifton, J., ‘Feeding the world’s hunger for phosphorus’, Resource Investor, 3 June 2011, http://www.resourceinvestor.com.
(9) ‘List of periodic table elements sorted by abundance in Earth’s crust’, Israel Science and Technology homepage, http://www.science.co.il.
(10) Ibid.
(11) Schröder, J.J., et al.,  ‘Sustainable use of phosphorus’, Plant Research International, DLO Foundation, Report 357, October 2010, http://ec.europa.eu.
(12) Pearce, F., ‘Phosphate: A critical resource misused and now running low’, Yale Environment 360, 7 July 2011, http://e360.yale.edu.
(13) Ibid.
(14) Lifton, J., ‘Feeding the world’s hunger for phosphorus’, Resource Investor, 3 June 2011, http://www.resourceinvestor.com.
(15) McCutcheon, S., ‘Phosphorus and Morocco – the future’, Morocco News Board, 4 November 2010, http://www.moroccoboard.com. 
(16) Lifton, J., ‘Feeding the world’s hunger for phosphorus’, Resource Investor, 3 June 2011, http://www.resourceinvestor.com.
(17) Including Western Sahara.
(18) Lifton, J., ‘Feeding the world’s hunger for phosphorus’, Resource Investor, 3 June 2011, http://www.resourceinvestor.com.
(19) Ibid.
(20) ‘1973 – 74 oil crisis’, The Bancroft Library, University of California, Berkeley, 7 March 2011, http://bancroft.berkeley.edu. 
(21) ‘Phosphate: Morocco’s white gold’, Bloomberg Business Week Magazine, 4 November 2010, http://www.businessweek.com.
(22) Schröder, J.J., et al., ’Sustainable use of phosphorus’, Plant Research International, DLO Foundation, Report 357, October 2010, http://ec.europa.eu.
(23) ‘Peak phosphorus’, ABC, 17 March 2011, http://www.abc.net.au. 
(24) Ibid.
(25) Schröder, J.J., et al.,  ‘Sustainable use of phosphorus’, Plant Research International, DLO Foundation, Report 357, October 2010, http://ec.europa.eu.
(26) Ibid.
(27) Ibid.
(28) The Green Revolution was a measure to increase agricultural production in foremost Latin America and Asia by for example new technology, new crop varieties and a more widespread use of fertilisers and pesticides.
(29) Briney, A., ‘History and overview of the Green Revolution’, About Geography, 23 October 2008, http://geography.about.com.
(30) Ibid.
(31) Roberts, T.L., 2009, The role of fertilizer in growing the world’s food. Better Crops, 93, pp. 12-15, http://www.ipni.net/ppiweb/bcrops.nsf.
(32) ’World population prospects: The 2010 revision, Volume I: Comprehensive tables’, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2011, http://esa.un.org. 
(33) Lifton, J., ‘Feeding the world’s hunger for phosphorus’, Resource Investor, 3 June 2011, http://www.resourceinvestor.com.
(34) Pearce, F., ‘Phosphate: A critical resource misused and now running low’, Yale Environment, 360, 7 July 2011, http://e360.yale.edu.
(35) Schröder, J.J., et al., ‘Sustainable use of phosphorus’, Plant Research International, DLO Foundation, Report 357, October 2010, http://ec.europa.eu.
(36) Ibid.
(37) ‘Africa can feed Africa: Removing barriers to regional trade in food staples’, The World Bank, Poverty reduction and economic management, Africa region, October 2012, http://siteresources.worldbank.org.
(38) Eutrophication occurs when a body of water receives excessive amounts of nutrients. This leads to increased growth of algae and, in the long run, depletion of the available oxygen in the water.
(39) Pearce, F., ‘Phosphate: A critical resource misused and now running low’, Yale Environment 360, 7 July 2011, http://e360.yale.edu.
(40) Schröder, J.J., et al., ‘Sustainable use of phosphorus’, Plant Research International, DLO Foundation, Report 357, October 2010, http://ec.europa.eu.
(41) Ibid.
(42) Ibid.
(43) Ibid.
(44) ‘Peak phosphorus’, ABC, 17 March 2011, http://www.abc.net.au.
(45) Clabby, C., ‘Does peak phosphorus loom?’, American Scientist, July-August 2010, http://www.americanscientist.org. 
(46) Schröder, J.J., et al., ‘Sustainable use of phosphorus’, Plant Research International, DLO Foundation, Report 357, October 2010, http://ec.europa.eu.
(47) ‘Peak phosphorus’, ABC, 17 March 2011, http://www.abc.net.au.