A new quarterly investment insights indicator has ranked South Africa last of selected sub-Saharan African countries in an evaluation of overall business, macroeconomic, consumer and retail prospects.

Global measurement company Nielsen’s inaugural African Prospects Indicator (APi) ranked South Africa ninth, while Nigeria secured the top spot, with its sustained success cemented on the “efficient navigation” of the complex routes to market.

The APi measured detailed business, retail and consumer, as well as the more commonly used macroeconomic, information sets of nine countries collectively accounting for 71% of sub-Saharan Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 50% of the continent’s population, in an effort to understand a country’s relative potential and the source of said potential, Nielsen content and marketing director Ailsa Wingfield said on Wednesday.

Speaking at the launch of the quarterly report, in Sandton, she explained that South Africa, Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Cameroon, Uganda and Ghana, for which the relevant common data sets were available, were subsequently ranked in the four elements to provide a more concrete look at the growth potential of a country incorporating consumers and retail.

“GDP size and growth, the most commonly used indicators of prospects in Africa, indicate speculative opportunity in large and small economies, with much of the growth, to date, coming from countries with the larger economies or populations,” Wingfield noted.

“Moving forward, many less apparent countries are likely to climb the prospects list as they afford sizeable populations, easier trading conditions and are home to consumers with an increasing ability and willingness to spend,” she added.

This was evident in the “unexpected” placing of Côte d’Ivoire as second in the overall rankings, securing high positions on most of the metrics of the APi, followed by Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Cameroon, Uganda and Ghana.

Within the business prospects element, which was factored on businesses’ views of their own growth opportunities, companies’ ability to execute on the ground and tap into consumer spending and their country’s economic growth potential, Kenya ranked the strongest, followed by Côte d’Ivoire and Zambia, while South Africa ranked eighth.

In terms of the business and retail prospects, Nigeria slipped to sixth and fifth place respectively.

South Africa’s retail ranking reached eight, with Côte d’Ivoire in the top spot, was followed by Uganda and Cameroon.

“Retailers are not only valuable brand recommenders but are often closest to consumers’ day to day lives and, therefore, have respected knowledge of shoppers,” Wingfield said.

Côte d’Ivoire also led the macroeconomic indicator ranking, followed closely by Nigeria and Tanzania in second and third place respectively. Once again, South Africa ranked eighth.

“For macroeconomic potential and business sentiment to translate into actual growth, companies need to balance their outlook with consumer and retail realities.”

Consumer rankings, which were generated through the survey of over 12 000 respondents factoring consumer spend and willingness to try new products, rated Nigeria number one, followed by Zambia and Uganda. South Africa was sixth.

Despite South Africa’s low rankings, the country should not be overlooked, the report said, pointing out that its economy accounted for the largest base of consumer spend on the continent and was home to more than 50-million people with various coping strategies for overcoming tough times.

The next APi would be released in November.