SADC remains silent as electoral fraud, post-election violence and the murder of opposition figures undermine democracy.

On 9 October, Mozambique held its seventh general election since 1994, cementing its status as an electoral democracy. Multiparty polls have taken place over 30 consecutive years without fail, but unless they are free and fair, elections won’t reverse the democratic backsliding in the Southern African nation.

The final outcome of the presidential, legislative and provincial elections will be announced by 24 October. But preliminary results show yet another landslide victory for the ruling party – the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO) – and its new presidential candidate Daniel Chapo.

A FRELIMO victory would extend the party’s reign beyond 50 years, having been in power since independence from Portugal in 1975.

More than 11 000 election observers were accredited at over 25 000 polling stations across the country, in which over 17-million people were registered to vote. As in previous polls, allegations of fraud have been rife, with domestic and international observer missions reporting evidence of fraud, including ballot box stuffing.

In its preliminary statement, the European Union Election Observation Mission Mozambique (EU EOM) noted the ‘tainted credibility of the electoral process.’ It said its ‘observers reported stacks of folded ballot papers in [10] counting processes that were followed, indicating possible ballot stuffing, and in one-third of the counting process observed, the figures in the protocols did not reconcile.’

Domestic observers had earlier warned of the existence of ghost voters, which artificially inflated votes in FRELIMO strongholds in favour of the party and its candidates.

‘There was a notable lack of confidence in the reliability of the electoral register, given that in several provinces it reflected a higher number of voters than the overall voting age population derived from the national census,’ the EU EOM said.

The election happened on an uneven political playing field that favoured FRELIMO, with the country’s mainstream media giving ruling party candidates more airtime. Such issues hinder free and fair elections and violate Mozambique’s Constitution, electoral laws and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections (2021). 

But SADC is unlikely to have an informed opinion on the election, considering its superficial observation mission. The regional bloc’s 53 observers from 10 member states observed only voting and results counting, covering just 288 of 25 000 polling stations (just over 1%).

By comparison, the EU EOM observed the entire electoral process, from voter registration to campaigning, voting and counting. It visited 729 polling stations on election day – about three times as many as the SADC mission.

The SADC electoral observation mission’s preliminary declaration highlights no major problems, raising questions about its credibility. It also doesn’t assess whether Mozambique adhered to SADC’s election guidelines and principles. The local press questioned the mission’s integrity – especially its leadership by Amani Abeid Karume, Zanzibar’s former president. Karume’s past is marred by allegations of electoral fraud and violence in his own country.

Based on fraud allegations, the mainstream opposition has rejected the results. Venâncio Mondlane, who officially received the second highest number of votes, has declared victory and threatened to mobilise the youth in a popular revolt if the electoral bodies declared victory for FRELIMO and its candidate.

Mondlane is a prominent former parliamentarian for the Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO), which fought against the FRELIMO-controlled government from 1975-92. He organised 40 days of protest marches in Maputo to contest electoral fraud in the October 2023 local elections. He had run for mayor of Maputo and lost to the FRELIMO candidate despite parallel counting data indicating that he won around 55% of the vote. 

Mondlane claimed that RENAMO’s president Ossufo Momade made secret deals with FRELIMO to accept electoral fraud in the 2023 polls. Having left RENAMO, Mondlane promises to go to any lengths to achieve his self-proclaimed victory. He is challenging this month’s results in electoral courts, but because the judiciary lacks independence, the opposition will also stage protests.

On Monday, Mondlane called his supporters to a general strike to contest the results and the murder of his lawyer and a party official on 19 October. The police responded with violence against the demonstrators. More clashes could break out in urban areas, where levels of poverty, inequality and youth unemployment are high, and government support is low.

On 15 October, the Attorney-General’s Office said it had instructed Mondlane to ‘refrain from practices that violate the Constitution, electoral legislation and other norms.’ These include his ‘pronouncements to divulge information about the election results that have not been confirmed by the electoral bodies, to proclaim himself president, claiming to have created a power transition commission and to incite the population to acts of violence and public disorder, with the allegation that power should be seized.’

The Attorney-General’s statement could fuel the fire rather than dampen spirits since there is a general perception that public institutions benefit FRELIMO in electoral disputes.

According to International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy Initiative, the absence of credible elections is one of the main causes of Mozambique’s decline in democracy. Likewise, due to election rigging, Mozambique has been classified as an authoritarian regime in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index since 2019. Afrobarometer surveys show declining levels of confidence in the election process and institutions.

While the final results of the 9 October polls are still uncertain, it’s clear that organising regular multiparty elections is not enough for Mozambique to become a liberal democracy. The manipulation of elections by electoral management bodies in favour of the ruling party is crippling democracy, eroding the credibility of institutions and generating post-election violence.

Although the African Union has condemned the violence, both that body and SADC should have acted earlier by properly observing Mozambique’s polls and urging the government to abide by the law and Constitution – and SADC’s election principles and guidelines on free and fair elections.

Written by Borges Nhamirre, Consultant, ISS Pretoria