Ukraine, engaged in a brutal war against invading Russian forces, has worked hard for months to open a new front in its counter-offensive against Moscow – a diplomatic blitz in Africa.

The physical war has been bogged down by entrenched Russian positions on the frontline in eastern Ukraine, with both sides sustaining heavy losses in battles resulting in small territorial gains – leading to questions in the US over continued military equipment support.

Off the battlefield, Kyiv has acknowledged that over the past three decades, it has neglected diplomatic relations in Africa and focused on internal struggles with revolution and war, leaving room for Russia to maintain and grow its historic Soviet Union ties on the continent unchallenged.

But now, there is an active effort to fix this and to counter Russia's influence on the continent, in what some of Kyiv’s top officials call Ukraine’s "African renaissance". 

The aim is to present Ukraine as a more attractive suitor than Moscow with a simple message: Ukraine won’t exploit resources or dominate its partners.

It has not gone unnoticed in the Kremlin. Very soon after Ukraine sent letters to several African countries,  Russia – through formal and informal diplomatic channels – urged some countries not to allow it, according to Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba.

"This is the undercover, behind-the-curtain things happening with these nations; there are few, not many, who are still hesitating to provide their agreement to host Ukrainian embassies … because Russia blackmails these nations and forces them to disagree, because the Russian embassies are aware when Ukrainian embassies emerge, it will be very difficult to disseminate their lies, it would be much more difficult," he said.

"That’s the diplomatic reality in which we must work. We will definitely win because ... we want to build relations based on mutual respect and partnership, not dominance, not fear, not keeping political hostages, but based on mutual respect," Kuleba said during an interview on Wednesday.

He was speaking to a delegation of African journalists, including News24, who visited Kyiv and Odesa last week. It was the first delegation of its kind the ministry organised.

One of the journalists in the group said that shortly after returning to his country, a Russian diplomatic official dropped off several books on Ukraine, including one that claimed to contain proof of widespread Nazism in Ukraine. No author was noted on its cover.

No similar approach was made to News24.

Kuleba has embarked on a diplomatic blitz on the African continent, visiting 12 countries since October 2022, something he says he doubts any other foreign minister can claim.

African leaders visited Kyiv in June as part of the African Peace Initiative, and plans to open 10 Ukrainian embassies in various African countries are well underway. The delegation of journalists met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and first lady Olena Zelenska, Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal, and the Speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, in addition to Kuleba, other officials and civil society organisations.

On a rainy November afternoon last week, these journalists made their way through a series of checkpoints manned by military, police and presidential guards in the side streets and alleys around Bankova Street in Kyiv to Zelensky's office.

It was here in the president's office that the idea of expanding relations with Africa and Latin America was conceived. When Zelenksy became president of Ukraine in 2019, he identified the need to rejuvenate "neglected" relations around the world.

The war and Russia’s invasion in February last year made this work all the more urgent.

Kyiv’s charm offensive is spearheaded by Kuleba and his impressive machinery at the foreign affairs building in St Michael’s Square in the capital. It started well before Russia’s invasion in February 2022, and Kuleba has presented his country as a reliable partner on the global stage.

In Africa, the messaging is simple – Ukraine is fighting the same fights you once fought against colonial powers, and we want to work with you again like we once did.

From the president, prime minister and ministers down, the messaging has been carefully designed to reflect the reality of Ukraine’s war for independence and freedom and the history of exploitation in Africa.

"We do not have neither wish, nor desire, nor the will to exploit anyone. Every nation that I have visited, I talked about three basic principles that we suggest building our relations: joint interest, mutual respect, and mutual benefit," Kuleba said.

"The reality is that Russia led by President [Vladimir] Putin tries to maintain its geographical periphery, or its neighbours, in its influence … this ongoing war launched by President Putin has only one purpose; he realised that the only way to stop Ukraine in its aspirations to have a real independence, and the answer was only by the war," Kuleba said.

"As an African, you know it’s your land, your country. You have the right to decide how you are going to run your life, what language you use. You decide who is your friend and who is an enemy. But [imagine] there was still capital that says no, no, no, we will decide that instead of you,” Kuleba added. “Or your language is not good enough, not beautiful enough and complicated, because you never had your statehood, and you are unable to manage the state. So, because your independence poses a threat to me, and just because I make money out of you, and if I lose you, I will make less money, when I say that – and that’s the way that Russia behaved towards Ukraine – you can probably hear some similarities."

Kuleba said when many African nations were fighting for freedom from colonial powers, Ukraine – as then part of the Soviet Union – supported countries through training freedom fighters.

"Ukrainian people are offended when someone says you are no one; you’re just being exploited or utilised, not only because it does not reflect the historical truth, but simply because we fight and struggle for our independence. We never invaded Russia, we never attacked Russia, and even assuming the argument that Ukraine is used by the West [as a ploy to destroy Russia], if it was a real fact, Russia would easily avoid that situation entirely – just don’t attack Ukraine."

What Ukraine has is a strong moral argument. Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians, the destruction of monuments and the targeting of museums helped provide evidence of what many in the country consider a genocide against not only the people of Ukraine, but also the very fabric of its heritage.

In occupied Russian areas, people are being forced to change their surnames and speak Russian.

Putin has attempted to justify his invasion by pointing out that Ukraine as a country does not actually exist, that it is, in fact, some extension of Russia that has been severed from its homeland.

Ukraine gained independence in 1991 and has for more than 30 years worked toward reestablishing its identity from being just another extension of the Soviet empire. Putin has lamented the fall of the Soviet Union as the greatest calamity in Russia’s modern history.

Ukrainian leaders view what is going on in their country as genocide against the Ukrainian language, culture, and, of course, people. By some estimations, the worst of Russia’s apparent war crimes is yet to be revealed, with more than 120 000 potential cases registered for investigation so far just from de-occupied territories. Fighting in the east of the country rages on, having already displaced as many as 7-million Ukrainians internally, with 5-million still abroad, having fled in the early days of the war.

The cost of diplomacy

The cost of Kyiv’s endeavours to make new partnerships in Africa can be quantified financially in one sense – the 10 new embassies in Mozambique, Sudan, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, and Tanzania, as well as Botswana and Mauritania, will come in at an estimated $25-million dollars (about R450-million).

The intangible political cost, however, is hard to calculate. Even Zelensky acknowledged it was a gamble as the road was long, and Russia's influence must be contended with.

The return on investment, however, could be significant.

"This is a challenging step politically and financially, but we have taken this step. We are not as powerful in your information space as Russia is, it’s a fact. But we do not try to brainwash your citizens with disinformation the way that the Russian Federation is doing that," Zelensky said. 

"I think that relations should be based on truth, not lies. That’s very important, and that’s exactly how we think these relations will be built," he said.

The reasons why Ukraine needs to cultivate as many friends as possible are obvious. Russia is a much larger country and can generate more arms and soldiers to pour into the war, despite Western sanctions.

For many in Ukraine, Putin’s motivations in 2014 were clear, and 16 February 2014 marks the real start of the war with Russia. Indeed, fighting in the Donbas, the eastern part of Ukraine that is mostly under Russian occupation, has continued. Russia has been part of more than 200 discussions around peace in the region and, according to Ukraine, broke more than 20 ceasefire agreements.

Negotiation with Russia is only an option after it withdraws all forces from Ukrainian territory, Zelensky said.

Many nations provide money, arms and political support. More than 140 countries supported Zelensky’s 10-point Peace Formula. Ukraine has outperformed expectations so far by not only holding Russia off but also gaining back swathes of territory. Fighting in the east of Ukraine continues, and it is fierce and deadly for both sides. By most estimates, more so for Russia.

But it is in Africa where, despite importing millions of tons of grain from Ukraine every year, work is needed if Kyiv wishes to draw more partners to support them. In some African countries, however, broad support for Russia exists.

"The history of relations between Ukraine and Africa isn’t that long – the history of the African continent and Soviet Union is much longer, but in Soviet times, all of us, the Baltic states, Russia, Kazakhstan, you name them, were part of a union. Now we are all independent states. There are many things toward which Ukraine contributed – structural projects, education – but nobody knew about that because Russia monopolised its relations with the African nations," Zelensky said, emphasising his desire for stronger bilateral deals.

Ukraine is one of the most digitalised societies in the world and is eager to help local governments streamline their processes. Ukraine’s biggest export is grain and other agricultural products. Envisaged bilateral deals are not only about increasing imports to new countries, but also ensuring food security and removing the supply chain risks from aggressive nations such as Russia, including grain hubs that could ensure security of supply year-round.

Political elites

Kyiv’s desire to become closer with African nations will have to cross a major hurdle. Russia maintains a strong foothold in many parts of the continent.

Kuleba said he often heard on his travels in Africa that Russia had a strong influence in the country he was visiting, whether formal or informal.

"I say fine, let’s have a look where this influence comes from. Let’s have a look at the list of top 10 nations that invest in Africa. Is Russia among this list? No. Let’s look at the list of top ten nations providing Africa with technical assistance. Is Russia among this list? Negative," Kuleba said.

South Africa's exports to Russia in 2022 accounted for just 0,23% of all goods sold, roughly 0,07% of SA's gross domestic product, and imports were around 0,5% of all goods bought. Exports to the US and European Union (EU) countries were just over 30%.

"Where is Russia in top of a list? It’s in top on selling arms, from Soviet times, it’s in top on the number of African students taking training in Russia, or training abroad. Currently the main investment of Russia into Africa, is the Wagner Group – but that is an investment in instability and exploitation of resources," he continued.

Kuleba said that “absolutely every African nation” he spoke to told him that Russia is not influential or powerful because of arms trades or students Russia was training abroad. It was because of the perception of Russia as the only representative of the former Soviet Union.

"The biggest power of Russia is that the Soviet Union had helped Africa struggle against colonialism. And in this image of people’s mindset in the former colonial states in Africa, they say that they are with Ukraine, but the ex-Soviet Union is represented by Russia, so we have to stand with Russia," he said.  

Kuleba believed this narrative had generally not been spread among the society of African countries, but among the political elites running them.  He countered this by pointing out that many freedom fighters had been trained in Ukraine.

"Then my next question comes – wait a second, hold on, once back in the day, Soviet Union, of which Ukraine was a part, had helped your nations win your independence, not because they were really wishing you freedom, but there was a Cold War and they were fighting against the West. It's also the rationale of Russia to destroy its neighbouring state, is that the logic?

"Here in Ukraine, they were trained how to fight colonists. So, if you say we must respect Russia because they were helping us counter colonialism, then you have to value Ukraine because we also were a big part of this effort," he said.

On arms trading with Africa, Kuleba said wealthier Western nations needed to adjust their policies and increase military cooperation because there would also be the state-backed military outfit Wagner to deal with.

This, too, was an area Ukraine was keen to cooperate on and share information.

Prime Minister Shmyhal said his country had “some experience” pushing Wagner out of Ukraine, and would be happy to help others do the same.

"The majority of African nations have their attitude on Russia based on sympathy for the Soviet Union and secondly, based on the fear that because of their [Russia’s] agents or channels of influence in the security dimension, Russia can arrange a coup d’état or some political assassination and punish a politician for so-called anti-Russian positions," Kuleba said.  

"There are no other reasons for Russia to have such strong positions among many African nations."

"The truth is that for 30 years since the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia continued selling its history in Africa and now presents as a defender of oppressed people in Africa, Latin America and Asia, so we have to use facts to counter this disinformation. It’s very difficult to change the attitude of political elites, but we have to communicate to people and tell them a truthful history of the state and the relations of the state with Russia and contributing to the image of independent Ukraine in Africa," Kuleba said.

Has any of this effort paid off?

Kuleba said that the diplomatic answer would be that it was too early to draw any conclusions. In what he termed a non-diplomatic answer, he said Ukraine had invested a lot in relations with Africa and would continue to do so – but had yet to reap any benefits.

"Currently we have a very low return on investment in terms that, we definitely feel a positive attitude toward Ukraine, but it has not translated into any specific, concrete steps that would demonstrate some new common projects between Ukraine and African nations," he said.

"I don’t want you to write a headline that says everything is broken and nothing is working because diplomacy takes time. But I am absolutely sincere in saying that we are at the very early stages, and quite a significant political investment has been undertaken. We identified the subjects and the themes of the projects that can connect Ukraine and African nations closer. But launching any specific projects or solid feedback is still not there," Kuleba said.

Kyiv suffered the largest drone and missile attack in months on Friday, as Russia launched more than 70 drones and a missile at Ukraine’s capital. Iranian-made Shahed drones are now painted black to make them harder to spot by soldiers on the ground – a difficulty that shows the desperation of Russia to improvise.

The increase in attacks as colder winter temperatures set is expected by Ukraine. Russia will again target electricity and heating infrastructure, and while preparations are in place to prevent major disruptions to the power supply, the message from Russia is clear – the war will not end soon.

Kuleba was clear: diplomatic efforts would take time. And Ukraine was ready for this winter and many more winters to come.