African central banks from South Africa to Egypt are poised to keep their interest rates high for longer, seeking to shield their economies from shocks such as surging energy prices caused by the Iran war and to support their currencies.

Of the 11 central banks due to deliver their interest-rate decisions over the next two weeks, seven are expected to hold, three hike and one is set to cut.

“Africa’s monetary-policy cycle is becoming increasingly uneven,” Angelika Goliger, EY Africa chief economist, said. “While earlier disinflation has created room for rate cuts in some economies, renewed energy and food-price pressures mean central banks are likely to remain cautious.”

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has restricted global oil, diesel and fertiliser supplies causing prices to spike. Brent crude broke through $100 a barrel almost two weeks ago, compared with an average price of around $85 a barrel when most African central banks last deliberated on interest rates, and a super El Niño event is expected to devastate harvests, fuelling inflation. Food accounts for as much as 50% in some African countries’ consumer price indexes.

The US is also presenting an external risk to African economies.

“With US monetary policy still relatively restrictive following September’s first rate increase since 2023, African policymakers will be alert to exchange-rate weakness, capital outflows and imported inflation,” Goliger said. “Even where domestic inflation is easing, these pressures are likely to limit the pace of rate cuts.”

Policymakers will also want to maintain a sizeable spread between the benchmark rate and annual inflation, which are among the world’s widest, as a defence against current and future shocks.

“Africa’s been very resilient in part because interest rates started quite high,” said Charlie Robertson, chief economic adviser at Equity Group Holdings Plc. “We’ve not had the cuts” in countries such as in Egypt, Nigeria or Kenya that the market was expecting, he said. “Instead high nominal rates have become a buffer.”

The upcoming interest-rate decisions will start with Nigeria and Morocco on Tuesday, followed by South Africa on Wednesday and Egypt, Ghana, Lesotho and Eswatini on Thursday, before Tanzania rounds out the cycle on October 8.

Nigeria’s monetary policy committee has room to ease but it is expected to remain cautious and retain its policy rate at 26.5% for a third straight meeting as recent fuel-price increases could reverse the downtrend in inflation.

With price pressures building in Morocco as the effects of a good harvest fade and hefty fuel-price increases feed through, Bank Al-Maghrib will probably keep its policy rate at 2.25% for the next three meetings to monitor price dynamics, François Conradie, lead political economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note.

“Egypt’s still-high inflation and exposure to regional and energy shocks will also argue for patience rather than immediate easing,” Goliger said. It could hold rates at 19% through the rest of 2026, with cuts becoming more likely next year, she said.

External spillovers from the Iran war could also see Ghana, Mozambique, Kenya and Tanzania stand pat to further assess the risks to their forecasts.

South Africa and its neighbours Eswatini and Lesotho, whose currencies are pegged to the rand, may raise their interest rates by a quarter point to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.

South Africa’s central bank, in particular, has seen risks to its inflation forecast materialise. Rising energy prices, exchange-rate volatility and higher US interest rates could generate second-round inflation effects, said Goliger. To reinforce policy credibility, the MPC could increase the interest rate to 7.25%.

Zambia will likely break from the pack and cut interest rates due to disinflation.