Over the last several decades, there have been many electoral successes and failures as African states strive towards democracy, putting different African nations on different political, social and economic development trajectories. In 2015, at least 20 African countries go to the polls. As in previous elections, the 2015 elections present Africa with the opportunity to move one step closer to democratic consolidation which rests on principles of political participation, competition and accountability.

Free and fair elections — those in which the electoral management body and all stakeholders follow the established rules and procedures — form a fundamental foundation upon which democracy, and hence social and economic development, thrive. Free and fair elections in and of themselves are not a panacea for political, economic and social woes — after all even military juntas hold elections to try to legitimise their hold on power rather than fostering development. But as a key success factor of the democratisation process, free and fair elections with credible outcomes should lead the way to broader political, economic and social development. Not only do free and fair elections with credible outcomes help avoid the outbreaks of violence that often accompany disputed elections, which leads to further instability and a decline in investment, but government legitimacy fostered by free and fair elections enhances governments’ ability to implement necessary but often painful social and economic reforms that may be difficult for citizens to accept immediately. It is thus necessary for the countries going to the polls in 2015 to conduct free and fair elections as a failure to do so may have far-reaching effects on their political stability, security situation and economy.

High stakes elections undermine the democratic process

Elections in many African countries going to the polls in 2015 take place in a high-stakes environment, that is, one in which winning an election is tantamount to capturing the state and monopolising its resources. It is a zero-sum-game in which the “winner” takes all and “losers” are left with little power and barely any resources, reminiscent of a life and death struggle.⁽²⁾ With such high stakes, winning control of power and resources often comes at the cost of those conditions necessary for free and fair elections: an environment devoid of tension and violence, hate speech, intimidation, and corruption, and one in which citizens freely exercise their civil and political rights. Retention or acquisition of power at almost any cost may play a significant role in the electoral environment in many of the African countries going to the polls in 2015, and as the cases of Togo and Burkina Faso show, holding free and fair elections is difficult when such bitter power struggles ensue.

In Togo, political violence is likely to mar election preparations as voters protest like they did in 2014 against Faure Gnassingbé’s bid to run for a third presidential term. Election related violence between government and opposition supporters is more likely given that a bid by the opposition to bar the incumbent from seeking re-election was rejected in June 2014 by a parliament dominated by the president’s ruling Rally for the Togolese People. Gnassingbé has been in power since the 2005 death of his father, General Gnassingbé Eyadema, who ruled with an iron fist for 38 years. While the opposition is calling for a return to the 1992 constitution, which places limits on presidential terms, it is also questioning the independence and legitimacy of the Independent National Electoral Commission, the Constitutional Court and the High Authority for Broadcasting and Communication. This lack of consensus, when analysed in the prism of the balance of power, seems to favour the ruling Union for the Republic party.⁽³⁾ By implication, the elections may not be legitimate, let alone their outcome incontestable.

In Burkina Faso, a country with one of the lowest GDPs in the world and surrounded by countries with serious security issues (Mali and Nigeria), the political situation is tense after President Blaise Compaoré resigned and fled the country in October 2014 in the face of mass protests against his attempt to change the constitution and extend his 27-year rule. An interim administration was put in place in late 2014 to institute reforms and prepare the country for new polls in October 2015. The political situation remains tense, exacerbated by issues of funding of political processes, how to depoliticise the electoral commission, concerns related to deep reforms of the governance process, improvement in living conditions and the administration of justice.

Burkina Faso has largely been under military rule since gaining independence from France in 1960, and the transitional government is now tasked with leading the country to democratic civilian rule when, for decades, state institutions have been eroded.⁽⁴⁾ Already there are rising tensions between the civilian transitional authorities and the presidential guard, the Régiment de Sécurité Présidentielle (RSP). Hundreds of protestors also took to the streets in February 2015 to call for the RSP’s dissolution. A civilian, Michel Kafando, was sworn in as transitional president of Burkina Faso on 18 November 2014, but the military took several key portfolios in the 26-seat cabinet, including the interior, mining and communications, while Lieutenant Colonel Issac Zida of the RSP became Prime Minister. While none of the members of the transitional government can run for office in the 2015 elections, the continuing show of power by the military remains a concern.

Elections without credible outcomes are bad for business

Countries like Togo and Burkina Faso in which high-stakes elections may lead to conditions in which free and fair elections with credible outcomes cannot be held, may not only face conflict and violence around their elections but will likely also suffer significant economic consequences. In Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea, and Nigeria, for example, the need to foster political stability and security will be vital to stimulate investment in the sectors that drive their economic growth.

Both Côte d'Ivoire and Guinea, which go to the polls in October and November 2015 respectively, are rich in resources upon which their economies depend. Free and fair elections in both these countries are necessary for attracting investment in their primary economic sectors, but also to diversify their economies to maintain growth. Côte d'Ivoire’s economy desperately needs investment in its all-important cocoa industry which has been hit hard by decreased production. The world’s leading cocoa producer can ill-afford to put off investors who will be seeking a stable political environment to invest in. Indeed, investors will undoubtedly be watching the elections in Côte d'Ivoire unfold with memories of the 32-year high the cocoa price hit in 2011 amid fears of disruption to supplies following the attempted coup still fresh in their minds.

While Guinea’s mining sector does attract some international investment, according to the African Economic Outlook, Guinea’s GDP declined from 3.9% in 2012 to 2.0% in 2013 partly due to a decrease in investment in the mining sector.⁽⁵⁾ While many factors influence investment in mining in the country, according to KPMG’s Global Mining Institute, “despite Guinea’s high-quality mineral resources numerous international firms have taken a wait-and-see approach due to the uncertain business and political environment in the country.”⁽⁶⁾ The political turmoil ahead of the October 2013 parliamentary elections, for example, caused international mining firms to exercise caution and delay investment, which caused net FDI inflows to fall.⁽⁷⁾ Along with investment cuts from BHP Billiton, Vale and RUSAL, Rio Tinto slowed progress of its multi-billion dollar investment in Guinea’s Simandou iron ore deposit in March 2013, driven partly by the political crisis which saw repeated delays in the parliamentary poll.⁽⁸⁾ The world’s second largest bauxite producer, which also has large iron ore, gold and diamond reserves, needs to attract foreign investment to its minerals industry, which is currently under-exploited because of political instability and lack of investor confidence.⁽⁹⁾ Increased investment will require that Guinea restores investor confidence and ensures government legitimacy to aid stability and to speed up much-needed reforms. Free and fair elections in November 2015 will help to improve political stability and ensure government legitimacy, but in Guinea, as in Côte d'Ivoire, such elections may remain elusive.

The outcome of Guinea’s last presidential election in 2010 was contested by the opposition citing many irregularities. Now, the credible outcome of the 2015 election is being jeopardised by political and ethnic tensions and the perception that the current government does not have the capacity to conduct free and fair elections (as shown by lack of consensus at the June 2014 dialogue). In Côte d'Ivoire, disagreements regarding the electoral framework, the citizenship question, government impunity, youth unemployment, peaceful co-existence and political parties’ infighting are likely to affect the election preparation and its outcome. The “power of incumbency”⁽¹⁰⁾ is also playing an important role in the electoral environment in the country. Just like in the 2011 elections, the opposition is raising concerns about bias by the electoral commission for the incumbent, intimidation of its supporters by the army and the banning of a pro-opposition newspaper, Notre Voie. The power of incumbency can have a significant effect on elections and their outcomes, as demonstrated in Sudan. Opposition parties have alleged monopoly use of public resources by the ruling party. As a result, some opposition parties are refusing to participate in the April 2015 general elections, as they allege that the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) holds absolute control over power and refuses to make any compromise to end the civil war and protect civil liberties.

As the biggest economy in Africa with promises of fabled hyper-profits for investors, it is not surprising that foreign investors eagerly follow the goings-on in Nigerian politics. However, Nigeria’s politics are more contested than ever before and have fallen victim to the power of the incumbency. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) enjoys massive powers of patronage from the state’s control of oil and gas industries. The PDP also controls key institutions like the police, the army and the anti-corruption agencies which the government uses from time to time to harass political opponents. In light of intense political rivalries,⁽¹¹⁾ exacerbated by ethnic and religious cleavages, the postponement of elections in Nigeria by six weeks from the initial 14 February date was met with mixed reactions: the government believes it is necessary in order to deal with the insurgency in the north, while the opposition views it as an attempt to subvert Nigeria’s democratic process. Amidst ongoing sparring among rival political parties, as well as the Boko Haram insurgency and the current technical deficiencies, polling data shows that there is little public confidence that the March 2015 elections will be free and fair.⁽¹²⁾ Furthermore, given the post-election violence in 2011, and the Boko Haram insurgency in the north, many fear that a similar outcome in the March 2015 election could deepen the political instability and affect the legitimacy of the new government.

Free and fair elections are crucial for Nigeria in order to achieve projected growth targets in 2015. The recent oil price slump has seen a drop in the value of the naira ⁽¹³⁾ and will have further consequences for GDP growth in a country whose impressive growth over the last few years has depended largely on high oil prices. It will thus be important to restore confidence in other sectors of the economy to maintain growth. Ifeanyi Okoye, President of the Enugu Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (ECCIMA) identified agriculture, manufacturing and the transport sectors as having great potential for growth and increased government revenue if the government creates an environment conducive to increased investment.⁽¹⁴⁾

The conflict in the northeast of the country has already seen investors revise their growth plans,⁽¹⁵⁾ demonstrating the impact that sectarian conflict could have on investment elsewhere in the country. Nigeria has experienced incidents of violence due to sectarian strife around election times. Free and fair elections with credible outcomes are crucial to build public confidence in the government and facilitate its efforts to diffuse the long-standing tensions between the north and the south which could have consequences for the security situation should violence erupt if the outcome of the election is disputed. A government seen as legitimate, elected in free and fair elections, will be more able to speed up progress on social inclusion, an important step toward preventing future outbreaks of sectarian violence.

African nations need to hold free and fair elections

In the high stakes “winner takes all” environment in which many African countries’ elections take place, acquiring or retaining power at almost any cost may undermine the holding of free and fair elections. An examination of countries like Togo and Burkina Faso, which have already seen protests against the extension of presidential terms and where election outcomes are likely to be disputed, shows that elections held under these high stakes conditions often lack legitimacy and credibility.

Elections that lack legitimacy and credulity are bad news for economies. Countries like Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea and Nigeria that rely largely on the production of one or two commodities will require investment to grow their primary economic sectors and to diversify their economies to maintain growth. To attract this investment they will need to hold free and fair elections in order to create the kind of stable political environment investors want to put their money in. While it is crucial that these countries hold free and fair elections, high stakes electoral environments in which intense political rivalries and the power of incumbency prevail, may compromise their ability to do so, with significant negative effects on their economies.

Written by Sheunesu Hove ⁽¹⁾

Notes:

([1) By Sheunesu Hove. Contact Sheunesu through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's South African office (officesa@consultancyafrica.com). This paper was developed with the assistance of Kyle Brown and Claire Furphy. Edited by Nicky Berg. Web Publications Manager: Claire Furphy.
(2) See how the ruling party raises elections money in Nigeria and the sums donated by those who benefit from the political system at Ogunlesi, T., 'Nigeria: The men behind the money', The Africa Report, 13 February 2015, http://www.theafricareport.com.
(3) Toupane, P.M., et al., ‘2015 elections in West Africa: turbulent times ahead’, Institute for Security Studies, 2 February 2015, http://www.issafrica.org.
(4) Mendy, J., ‘Your guide to Africa’s elections’, World Policy Blog, 24 February 2015, http://www.worldpolicy.org.
(5) Manlan, O., ‘Guinea’, African Economic Outlook, http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org.
(6) ‘Guinea mining guide’, KPMG International, 2014, http://www.kpmg.com.
(7) Ibid.
(8) Samb, S., ‘Guinea cuts mining taxes in overture to investors’, Business Day Live, 9 April 2014, http://www.bdlive.co.za.
(9) ‘Economy: Guinea’, CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov.
(10) Power of the incumbency in this case means to the use of office as a tool to get elected or re-elected, a privilege other participants do not have. Incumbent government officials are in a position to take advantage of their access to public resources and misuse them during elections.
(11) President Goodluck Jonathan is at war with his own People’s Democratic Party: five state governors have defected to the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), as have 37 members of parliament, depriving the PDP of a majority.
(12) ‘Nigeria’s postponed election: A powder keg’, The Economist, 8 February 2015, http://www.economist.com.
(13) Ibid.
(14) Iba, L., ‘Govt must take Nigeria’s economic diversification seriously – Okoye, ECCIMA boss’, The Sun News, 16 February 2015, http://sunnewsonline.com.
(15) Salgado, I., ‘Conflict in Nigeria and South Africa: Conflict in Africa’s two biggest economies’, Consultancy Africa Intelligence, 3 August 2014, http://www.consultancyafrica.com.