We begin this theme by discussing the critical role of energy in human development  and provide a brief history  of energy production and demand. We then provide a concise overview of the current energy landscape, globally and for Africa. 

Next, we analyse the likely energy supply and demand forecast to 2050 and sometimes 2063. We differentiate between six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewables. This analysis is grounded in the Current Path forecast, which assumes continuity in Africa's current developmental trajectory without major shocks.

Energy production across these categories is quantified in barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) and millions or billions of barrels of oil equivalent (MBOE or BBOE), facilitating a direct comparison among them. These initial sections project the future evolution of energy trends up to 2050, aligning with global goals like ‘achieving net zero by 2050’, and extend our outlook to 2063 to coincide with the African Union's Agenda 2063 vision.

Moving beyond the Current Path, we address the necessity of establishing fossil energy production limits to align with the 1.5°C global warming target set by the Paris Agreement amidst a growing scientific consensus that anticipates a 2°C warming scenario.

We examine a suite of policies for Africa to reduce fossil fuel use, ramp up other types of energy production and reduce carbon emissions. This involves reviewing the effects of strategies proposed by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and other entities to significantly cut coal use and reduce oil and gas production worldwide.

The subsequent Africa Energy Policy scenario examines the ramifications of diminishing coal and oil production without limiting gas. Our analysis indicates that constraints on gas production would create an unmanageable energy production shortfall for a continent still with very low levels of energy availability.

The scenario includes various mitigation efforts and the expansion in renewables, hydro, and nuclear power needed to bridge the remaining energy demand gap. The scenario also incorporates carbon sequestration and enhanced energy efficiency measures to gauge their impact on carbon emissions.

We then apply the Africa Energy Policy scenario to the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, where Africa realises its socio-economic and governance potential and achieves rapid growth. This Sustainable Africa scenario represents an ambitious vision for Africa’s sustainable development and energy transition, aiming for a more prosperous and less carbon-intensive future.

A summarising conclusion includes key recommendations for decision-making. It will not be possible to close the 5.9 BBOE production gap that will be left with the ending of coal production by 2040 and a drastic reduction in oil and gas by 2050 as recommended by UNEP. Instead, Africa would need to be provided with room to exploit its gas endowment with due consideration of the challenge of stranded assets. We list the African coal and oil producing countries that will be most affected with the recommended production reductions. We point to the need for a differentiated global carbon tax, and the support that Africa would need from multilateral funding institutions, private sector partners in the West, development agencies and bilateral support from high-income countries for the realisation of a viable carbon emissions pathway, including for selected exploration and production of gas. In addition to debt relief and suspension, multilateral development banks need to implement the Climate Resilient Debt Clauses (CRDCs) developed in response to the Sustainable Debt Coalition created at COP27 in Egypt and the use of debt-for-nature or debt-for-climate swaps to strengthen recipient countries. Much more attention must also be paid to repurposing solid waste and efforts towards the circular economy. Finally, knowledge transfer and domestic investment in exchange for the export of beneficiated raw materials should be front and centre in an African strategy to leverage the associated opportunities.

Report by the Institute for Security Studies