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Is South Africa still on course for a 2030 future of low economic growth and social unrest, exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic? Or could the next decade still see a shift towards economic expansion, underpinned by a renewed spirit of constitutionalism?

These are the questions the Indlulamithi South Africa Scenarios 2030 Project (Indlulamithi) seeks to answer at its third annual Indlulamithi Day. On 19 June 2020, Indlulamithi will unveil the latest results from its National Barometer, which provides the nation with a perspective on how South Africa is performing given the social, economic and political issues it faces. 

Additionally, this year’s event will launch new Provincial Indlulamithi Barometers. These tools will determine how the Indlulamithi scenarios are unfolding across each of the nine provinces, to inspire social compacting at a local level as a mechanism to address the country’s challenges.

Two years ago, Indlulamithi set out to understand what a socially cohesive South Africa would look like, and to what degree social cohesion is attainable by 2030. Following a structured development iSbhujwa, and Nayi le Walk - and these were launched by President Cyril Ramaphosa on 21 June 2018. Each scenario imagines different levels of cohesion and the resulting socio-economic impact, inspiring people to ask: Where do we want to go? And how do we get there? 

“Last year, our National Barometer showed South Africa was trending towards the Gwara Gwara scenario, which imagines our country as a demoralised land of disorder and decay,” says project leader Dr Somadoda Fikeni . “However, these results did not anticipate a Black Swan event like COVID-19. This year, our review will consider the impact of the pandemic on existing crises, inequality, and socio-economic vulnerability, in an effort to understand the country’s underlying fundamentals. As the country – and world – seeks out a new normal, scenarios are more relevant than ever to mobilise the nation to look above the trees, and shift from short-term emergency planning to long-term, strategic thinking.”

The Indlulamithi Barometers were launched by Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng on 21 June 2019. The tool combines storytelling components capturing how people feel about the state of the nation, with data-driven components capturing the facts, to help detect early-warning signals for shifts between the Indlulamithi scenario trajectories. It is designed to look beyond the ups and downs of daily news cycles and focus on how these events feed into broader trends that show the consequences of today’s decisions on the country’s future.

“COVID-19 has brought statistics, measurement, modelling, predictive analytics and planning as a science to the fore,” says Pali Lehohla, former Statistician-General of South Africa. “We look forward to using Indlulamithi Day to present the pre, in, and post-COVID scenarios at national, provincial, district and municipal level by different sectors of the economy.”

Due to the global pandemic and its requirements for social distancing, Indlulamithi Day 2020 will be held virtually. The virtual event on 19 June is available for anyone to attend. Those interested in joining and accessing the latest barometer results can register at https://sascenarios2030.co.za/indlulamithi-day-rsvp/.

Issued by Indlulamithi