Herman Mashaba's new political party Action SA is headed towards Johannesburg's civic centre in Braamfontein, with the recently formed party delivering some significant body blows to the African National Congress (ANC) in Soweto.

The party, which was formed shortly after Mashaba's acrimonious departure from the Democratic Alliance (DA) in 2019, has taken a number of wards from the ANC in Soweto, which is considered the governing party's traditional struggle home.

"Johannesburg is going to be the story of the day. Data is showing that the ANC's support in townships around the city could hit historical lows. At this stage it looks as if it could settle at 55%, down from 70%, which is dramatic. It is a massive shift. And it's the Action SA impact," says Dawie Scholtz, News24's elections analyst.

News24's Elections Forecaster shows that Action SA is consistently performing in the 15% to 20% range in Soweto and surrounds. Not enough data is available yet to make a projection for either Soweto or Johannesburg but results that have come in overnight show sizeable support for Mashaba and his party.

"The differential between suburban voter turnout and township voter turnout remains large, with a larger chunk of people voting in the former than people going to vote in the latter. This will make a difference when the final tallies are calculated," Scholtz says.

The ANC's decline in Soweto and the strong performance by Action SA is underscored by two wards in Soweto.

At Protea Glen Primary School, the ANC secured 58% of the vote in the 2019 general elections but this has decreased to 32%, according to information from sources in Soweto. Action SA did not exist in 2019, but will seemingly now be the majority party, with 34% of support. And at Seana Marena High School, the ANC seems to have crashed from 70% of support in 2019 to 47% in 2021, and Action SA has secured 29% of support in its first outing.

"The theme in Soweto seems to be ANC decline, a strong performance by Action SA, the Economic Freedom Fighters remaining consistent and marginal DA decline. But it really is about Action SA taking votes from the ANC," Scholtz says.