“We are much better than to be called terrorists, better than to be branded as pirates, better than having the largest refugee camps in the world and better than being known as the most failed state in the world” - Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.⁽²⁾

In a speech, delivered on 29 November 2012, the newly appointed president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, expressed his hopeful vision for Somalia’s future, a nation long seen to epitomise the ‘failed state’ due to decades of civil war, corruption and widespread famine. The president’s inauguration on 16 September 2012 has been described as an important junction in Somali history, marking a “shift in gear” in Somalia’s journey towards becoming a functioning and democratic state.⁽³⁾  Although symbolically important, there are many challenges which face the president’s term in office, leading to critics arguing that his election will effect little change in the state of the nation.⁽⁴⁾ Whether one is optimistic or pessimistic regarding Mohamud’s ability to improve Somalia’s future, it is clear that the choices he makes in 2013 will be crucial in shaping Somalia’s political future. This paper assesses the efficacy of Mohamud’s rule so far, and predicts tangible changes that are likely to be effected within 2013. Key challenges that President Mohamud is likely to face, namely fostering unity, securing the nation’s energy future and eradicating the threat of al-Shabaab, are also presented.

Promoting unity in a divided nation – the challenge of government

President Mohamud’s electoral victory has been described as “an unequivocal vote for change,”⁽⁵⁾  marking the first democratic elections held in Somalia for 40 years.⁽⁶⁾ Specialising in conflict management, Mohamud is a respected and influential figure in academic and non-governmental organisation (NGO) circles, responsible for co-founding the Somali Institute of Management and Administrative Development.⁽⁷⁾ His political manifesto has, however, been criticised for lacking political depth and an understanding of the key challenges facing his presidency. Concerns have arisen surrounding a lack of clarity in Mohamud’s “six pillar policy” outlined in his manifesto, which focuses on the areas of stability, economic recovery, peacebuilding, service delivery, international relations and unity.⁽⁸⁾

This five-page document calls for a centralised approach, with power stemming from the federal government in Mogadishu. This approach has been described as reductionist, as it applies a generalised approach to all parts of Somalia, and in doing so “provides no vision for a national political system that has matured and benefited from the wise counsel of the bitter lessons of Somalia’s troubled past.”⁽⁹⁾

A key challenge is whether President Mohamud can effectively address the regional complexities that exist within his nation, such as the possible secession of Somaliland and the on-going establishment of the Jubaland State. For state building to be effective, Mohamud needs to appreciate the importance of clans and elders. As Augustine Mahiga, the United Nations representative in Somalia, points out “It will be difficult to move the country from the grip of elders to professionalise governance …The problem is the environment – a lack of a recognisable authority, a lack of safeguards ... It's a real challenge to state building.”⁽¹⁰⁾

Somalia’s energy future - tackling ‘resource opportunism’

As a consequence of its increasing stability, Somalia has experienced a “flurry in activity and interest” from foreign oil and gas investors.⁽¹¹⁾ Although the exact figure of oil and gas reserves will not be known until further exploration has been conducted, Somalia is regarded to be situated within an “oil window” that contains “significant amounts” of oil and gas reserves.⁽¹²⁾ Due to its strategic proximity to the trading waters of the Horn of Africa, it is believed that Somalia could become a major trading hub and an attractive centre of investment. This interest will prove a new challenge for President Mohamud’s leadership in 2013, in establishing a regulatory framework so that Somalia may benefit from its natural resources.

In an attempt to profit from the recent proliferation of oil and gas finds in the East African region, the Somali Government has offered re-entry, for exploration purposes, to oil companies such as BP, Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell, which had exploration licenses that were valid prior to the outbreak of civil war in 1991.⁽¹³⁾ In addition to this move, the Somali Government is planning to release a new wave of licensing contracts in early 2013, inviting exploration of both onshore and offshore blocks.

Tackling incidences of ‘resource opportunism’ is central to ensuring that the Somali Government can profit from the natural resources present in the country. This importance has been highlighted by past incidents where increased foreign interest in Somalia’s natural resources, combined with a lack of definitive oil and gas regulatory laws, have led to a situation in which interested individuals have illegally sold oil blocks at vastly reduced prices.  A well known example of this corruption occurred in 2005 when the Puntland Government signed an oil contract with Range Resources, which sold the Australian company all the mineral rights in Puntland, spanning an area of 212,000 square kilometres. This controversial deal was the first time any government had sold all of its oil rights to a single company. The fact that Range Resources is a mining company further highlights the opportunistic nature of this deal, with the small amount the signatories received as a signing bonus described as a “slap in the face” compared with what these companies usually pay.⁽¹⁴⁾

This trend of foreign wildcats operating in Somalia continues today, as “there are plenty of foreign buyers who are willing to swallow up a risky buy.”⁽¹⁵⁾ Recently, the East African Energy Forum (EAEF) clamped down on these illegal activities, filing law suits against four individuals wishing to profit from the illegal selling of oil blocks.⁽¹⁶⁾ This move highlights Somalia’s heightened efforts to profit from its natural resource wealth, even if it damages strategic regional relations. Abdillahi Mohamud, Managing Director of the EAEF, is adamant that “Somalia is no longer that place to conduct a quick, shadowy deal and go unnoticed or unchallenged by its people.”⁽¹⁷⁾

To this end, the management of international interest in exploiting Somalia’s natural resources poses a key challenge for President Mohamud in 2013. It is clear that a regulatory framework should be put in place so that foreign companies are unable to exploit Somalia’s natural resources. Abdillahi  Mohamud recommends that no foreign oil exploration should take place for four years, instead taking place “in-house” through the federal energy ministry.⁽¹⁸⁾ Rather than denying the local population wealth, this, he argues, provides time for the Somali Government to develop environmental regulations, a national oil law and regional revenue sharing agreements, so that the local population can benefit from oil and gas regulations. Adopting a measured and pragmatic approach, Mohamud argues, “will be the difference between either a situation like that of Nigeria or that of Norway.”⁽¹⁹⁾

The future of al-Shabaab

The Islamist group al-Shabaab posed an immediate challenge at the time of the president’s inauguration in September 2012. This threat was symbolically marked through an assassination attempt on the president that took place on 12 September in a Mogadishu hotel.⁽²⁰⁾ Al Shabaab claimed responsibility for this attack, which resulted in the deaths of an estimated eight people. Speaking soon after the explosions, President Mohamud put security concerns at the top of his agenda, stating that “Priority number one is security, and priority number two, and priority number three.”⁽²¹⁾

On 13 December 2012, President Mohamud claimed that he had effectively “destroyed” the threat posed by al-Shabaab, following a string of military defeats by the African Union-backed Somali troops in Kismayo and Jowhar. However, despite their military defeat, the ideology of al-Shabaab, and therefore the culture of fear and uncertainty that they have created, remains. The continued threat posed by al-Shabaab is exemplified by a grenade attack which took place on 19 November 2012 in the predominately Somali Eastleigh district located in Nairobi, Kenya. Kenyans have also blamed al-Shabaab for another attack that killed seven people. A more recent attack, which took place on 16 December 2012, left at least one person injured. Continued attacks could strain Somali-Kenya relations in 2013.

The role of the international community

The method of involvement of international allies is crucial in determining the future of Somalia. Due to Somalia’s troubled history, international players such as the United States, United Kingdom, United Nations and Ethiopia, have long been pursuing a solution to the “Somali problem,” a term used to describe the amalgamation of drought, famine, piracy, violence, corruption and Islamist extremism experienced within Somali borders.⁽²²⁾ To this end, members of the international community have been accused of “micromanaging” Somali affairs, “often in pursuit of wrongheaded policies.”⁽²³⁾

Some countries, however, have taken a more inclusive approach. President Mohamud has recently praised Japan’s direct involvement in Somalia, stating that the success of their partnership is due to Japan’s decision to be directly involved with the Somali Government, rather than through organisations. The president has urged other members of the international community to follow Japan’s example of its “committed decision” in strengthening bilateral relations between the two nations.⁽²⁴⁾

Similarly, on a recent trip to Turkey, made on 4 December 2012, President Mohamud expressed his gratitude to the Turkish Government for its continued economic and humanitarian support. The Turkish Government’s approach to Somalia has focussed on training and capacity building, made clear in its recent scholarship programmes. Mohamud described these programmes, which have enabled hundreds of Somali students to receive an education in Turkey, as “an investment in human resources at the right time.”⁽²⁵⁾ Mohamud made clear that the relationship also holds symbolic importance, displaying the message to the rest of the world that Somali’s have “brothers and sisters” in other countries.⁽²⁶⁾ Speaking at the meeting, the president stated that “The Turkish Republic’s Prime Minister and his family came and visited Somalia when it was a country that no one wanted to go to. This was an important act because it gave us energy, confidence and hope.”⁽²⁷⁾

It has been argued that the prolonged involvement of foreign powers in Somali affairs has led to a situation in which foreign powers feel like they partially “own” Somalia’s new president, and try to direct its future.⁽²⁸⁾ International agents will play an important role in improving Somalia’s prospects in 2013, through working directly with the Somali Government on capacity building and training, rather than relying on transferring aid through external organisations. Japan and Turkey’s efforts serve as current examples of this necessary, inclusive approach.

Conclusion

Despite the optimism that surrounded President Mohamud’s arrival into office, praise for the politician is currently muted. This can be explained by the high expectations placed on his arrival into power, coupled with the huge challenges due to be faced during his presidency. Abdi Aynte, a Somali-American journalist and researcher, argues that “the monumental challenges currently facing the country are simply too prohibitive for one leader to tackle. He must, however, demonstrate the will to usher in change.”⁽²⁹⁾

The fact that Mohamud is relatively new to the political scene discounts him from charges of past corruption. However, he may also lack the ability to understand political nuances that more seasoned politicians would be familiar with. Due to Somalia’s fragile democratic state and the security threats that it continues to face, Mohamud is heavily reliant on outside influences, and, as a result lacks the power to act alone on behalf of the Somali people. It is therefore the responsibility of outside powers to act in Somalia’s best interests, by putting support and capacity building at the forefront of their involvement.The year 2013 is a year of opportunity for Somalia in light of its recent gains against al-Shabaab, and the prospect of increased foreign investment in the nation. However, Mohamud must display the political acumen and diplomatic skills to deal with the powerful influences within his divided nation if Somalia is to profit from these changes.

Written by Katharine Dennys ⁽¹⁾

NOTES:

(1) Contact  Katharine Dennys through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Africa Watch Unit ( africa.watch@consultancyafrica.com).  This CAI discussion paper was developed with the assistance of Claire Furphy and was edited by Nicky Berg.
(2) Goth, B., ‘The Somali president has spoken, can anyone hear his agony?’, Godweynenews.com, 29 November 2012, http://oodweynenews.com.
(3) Ellis, J., ‘New hope for Somalia, says scholar MP’, CNN, 11 December 2012, http://edition.cnn.com.
(4) ‘Somalia: A smiling new president for a country in desperation’, Garoweonline.com, 2 December 2012, http://www.garoweonline.com.
(5) Aynte, A., ‘Appointment of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signals change and challenges’, African Arguments, 11 September 2012, http://africanarguments.org.
(6) Ibid.
(7) ‘Outsider Hassan Mohamud wins Somali presidential race’, Ahramonline, 11 September 2012, http://english.ahram.org.eg.
(8) ‘New Somali leaders, Institutions need ‘Urgent’ support as they seek to consolidate ‘remarkable’ achievements born of transition process, Security Council told’, United Nations Security Council Briefing SC/10792, 16 October 2012, http://www.un.org.
(9) ‘Somalia: A smiling new president for a country in desperation’, Garoweonline.com, 2 December 2012, http://www.garoweonline.com.
(10) ‘Somalia’s long road to institution building’, The Africa Report, 8 November 2012, http://www.theafricareport.com.
(11) Mohamud, A., ‘Somalia Oil & Gas, a blessing or a curse?’, Hiiraan Online, 15 April 2012, http://www.hiiraan.com.
(12) Assi, N.K., ‘Oil can be a boon for Somalia’, Gulfnews.com, 30 April 2012, http://gulfnews.com.
(13) ‘Somalia calls back BP, Shell, Chevron in hope of oil discoveries’, Ventures, 3 October 2012, http://www.ventures-africa.com.
(14) Mohamud, A., ‘Somalia Oil & Gas, a blessing or a curse?’, Hiiraan Online, 15 April 2012, http://www.hiiraan.com.
(15) Mohamud, A., ‘Somalia’s energy future: Getting it right’, African Executive, 13 October 2012, http://www.africanexecutive.com.
(16) Ibid.
(17) Ibid.
(18) Ibid.
(19) Ibid.
(20) ‘Al Shabaab claims attack on new Somali leader’, Aljazeera, 13 September 2012, http://www.aljazeera.com.
(21) Ibid.
(22) Harper, M., ‘Will President Mohamud be able to tame Somalia?’, BBC News, 11 September 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(23) Aynte, A., ‘Appointment of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signals change and challenges’, African Arguments, 11 September 2012, http://africanarguments.org.
(24) ‘President welcomes Japan’s direct involvement with Somalia’, Hiiraan Online, 9 December 2012, http://www.hiiraan.com.
(25) ‘Somali president hails Turkish efforts for better life in Somalia’, Today’s Zaman, 5 December 2012, http://www.todayszaman.com.
(26) Ibid.
(27) Ibid.
(28) Harper, M., ‘Will President Mohamud be able to tame Somalia?’, BBC News, 11 September 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(29) Aynte, A., ‘Appointment of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signals change and challenges’, African Arguments, 11 September 2012, http://africanarguments.org.