A new report has outlined three scenarios for South Africa’s most populous province by 2035.

The 'Finding Our Rhythm: Pathways and Futures for the Gauteng City Region' report, published on Wednesday, aims to deepen understanding of potential futures for the Gauteng City Region and to chart pathways towards positive developmental outcomes.

Authored by Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra), in partnership with the Gauteng City Region Observatory (GCRO), which commissioned the project, and the Gauteng provincial government (GPG), the scenario-planning exercise intends to generate strategic insight for the GPG’s seventh administration, particularly in the development of its 2024 to 2029 Medium-Term Development Plan (MTDP).

Specifically, the project sought to adapt and refine the national Indlulamithi Scenarios 2035 to the distinctive economic, social and governance context of the Gauteng City Region.

During a webinar-based launch of the report, Mistra director of operations Dr Yacoob Abba Omar unpacked the 25 variables identified through a series of consultations, which led to three key driving forces (KDFs) aligned with the MTDP.

The variables identified in the report included digital infrastructure for government and economy; the impact of crime; the rise of populism and extremism; the role of the creative sector; spatial planning and relationships; the growth and regulation of the financial sector; the future of the mining sector and mining services; and local businesses reinvesting in the country with a shared economic vision.

Further variables were the long-term impact of implementing the National Health Insurance (NHI); social indicators, such as education and health, and their impact; climate change’s socioeconomic and health hazards; South Africa’s business hub moving away from Gauteng; the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement; decaying infrastructure and limited land resources; electricity challenges; capacity and funding of civil society; leadership across public sector and civil society; and Gauteng’s manufacturing sector.

“[The report] gives you a sense of what people regarded as the most important variables,” he said, noting that while all the variables were deemed important, some of them would have a higher impact – and the highest uncertainty – on the future of Gauteng.

Among the variables described as high impact and high uncertainty included the shifting electoral dynamics in democracy; new economic growth path; building sustainable and resilient human settlements, including smart cities; the impact of immigration, migration and urbanisation in Africa; effective, cooperative and collaborative governance; the dynamics of inequality, unemployment and poverty and its impact on social solidarity; and the supply of good quality water to all Gauteng residents.

From the variables, three key drivers were derived, namely ‘the Gauteng economy – dynamism or depression?’, which is aligned with MTDP Priority 1 of inclusive economic growth and job creation; ‘Living conditions, health and wellbeing – better or worse quality of life?’, aligned with MTDP Priority 2 of improved living conditions and enhanced health and wellbeing; and ‘Governance – chaos or consensus building?’, aligned with MTDP Priority 3 of a capable, ethical and developmental State.

KDF 1, the Gauteng Economy, was an essential precondition for solving other problems in the province. There was a need to reduce inequality, unemployment, poverty and social discord, Omar said.

A big determinant will be Gauteng’s ability to develop a new economic growth path, with the decline of its traditional economic pillars, such as mining and manufacturing. This needs to balance traditional and emerging sectors, with potential growth areas identified as the financial sector, education, technology, logistics, the creative sector and tourism.

“Getting Gauteng right is so important for the rest of the country,” he continued, noting, however, that there were many factors external to the province itself, but impacting very directly on it. These include the impact of AI and the AfCFTA Agreement, as well as the implementation success of the NHI.

“Other external factors that will influence this KDF include the possibility of geopolitical conflicts, pandemics, responses to climate change challenges and the possibility of national-level political instability,” the report outlined.

Under the second key driver, ‘Urban Spaces and Infrastructure’, Omar said that, given the density of Gauteng, which was unique compared with other provinces, urban space and infrastructure became even more of a challenge.

He questioned if the province was on a path of development or decay, pointing to persistent challenges like electricity and water.

“We also have criminal elements, like the rest of the country, which also add to costs and exacerbate infrastructure problems. We need to realise that this also impacts hugely on our province.”

Delving deeper, he said that urban development was complicated by infrastructure decay, limited land availability and informal occupation of buildings.

“Given the density, we need to have policies that revitalise inner cities and central business districts, and [promoting the] development of efficient transportation networks could help to harness the benefits of densification,” he said, adding that these policies should also improve access to economic opportunities and ensure greater access to affordable housing.

Expanded access to digital infrastructure could also help improve the provincial economy, education and government services.

The third KDF, covering governance, is critical for both economic growth and infrastructure development.

“Governance is a critical factor that will shape Gauteng's future. Capable, ethical and developmental governance is likely to be an essential requirement for both economic growth and infrastructure development in the province.”

The quality of leadership across public and private sectors is vital, however, the quality of current leadership continues to be a matter of public concern.

Civil society also plays a crucial role in governance and enhancing democratic accountability, but these organisations face threats to their capacity and funding.

Mistra senior researcher Na'eem Jeenah outlined three “colourful” scenarios for Gauteng in 2035, namely ‘It’s about time’, ‘Homeless’ and ‘Paradise Road’, talking from the position of already being in 2035.

“In the ‘It’s about time’ scenario, Gauteng is no longer South Africa's political, economic and cultural epicentre. It has been eclipsed, not only by other places in South Africa, but also other centres in the Southern Africa region.”

The province is characterised by increasingly unstable government, with political leaders more focused on keeping power than on serving the residents of the city region, and we have experienced mild economic growth [from 2025 to 2030] before plateauing]. The little growth that we have had [by 2035] has benefited only the minority and the elites in the province,” he explained.

While there has been a roll out of new Internet infrastructure in the region by 2035 that has played an important role, it yet again serves only a few communities.

Water shedding has become a fact of life in Gauteng since around 2028, partly owing to aging water and sanitation infrastructure and a lack of maintenance, and electricity supply has been decent, however, prices are very high.

Boom Shaka’s song, ‘It’s about time’, becomes an anthem of a frustrated population.

“In 2035, people in their 40s and 50s, the ‘Boom Shaka’ generation, have decided that they want to repeat that generation's fearless pioneering spirit to confront the status quo that is messing up the province, but like the Gauteng province as a whole, the spirit is there, but the physical energy, not so much.”

The report’s second scenario, ‘Homeless’, describes a province’s decline that started with the weakening of South Africa's political centre.

“Leading up to 2029, Gauteng political landscape has been characterised by unstable coalitions, personal fiefdoms and largely patronage politics. Provincial and local political parties from around 2029 have been operating autonomously of their national structures. [The] 2029 [elections] was won by a populist coalition, and since then, democratic norms have been slowly eroded.”

By 2035, Gauteng is described as a province of economic decline and infrastructural decay and collapse, with businesses unable to cope with the costs of utilities like electricity and water.

In this scenario, public utilities entered a “final death spiral” amid theft, sabotage and unfunded maintenance, besides others, while water and electricity shortages have become routine.

The healthcare system struggles, with a health crisis exacerbated by climate change, and education is increasingly privatised and inaccessible to most people.

Rising unemployment strains social services in the province, and while the informal economy expanded, it serves as a survival strategy that creates very few sustainable jobs.

“We have a frayed social fabric in the province,” said Jeenah, further pointing to an increase in violent crime, deeply entrenched criminal syndicates, an increase in cybercrime, and xenophobia emerging as a defining characteristic of Gauteng.

“Gauteng has become quite isolated within the Southern African Development Community and even within the country. In some ways, other provinces in South Africa have challenged Gauteng’s economic dominance and its inability to maintain its infrastructure prevented it from capitalising on the AfCFTA.”

The ‘Paradise road’ scenario paints a rosier picture of life in Gauteng, having become the gateway to Africa and attracting the best talent in the country and in the continent.

“We have improved public transportation, Internet connectivity and an important shift in residential patterns, public education and health systems, besides others, offers better services.”

The province is clean, safe, and women-, disabled- and child-friendly, welcoming migrants and integrating everyone, while a universal basic income grant (BIG) was implemented and has multiplier effects. Townships have been transformed into self-contained labour markets with productive economic activity.

The Gauteng Development Plan 2035 balances traditional sectors with the digital economy, biotech and personal services, with an economy that has grown from R2.2-trillion in 2024 to R3-trillion in 2035, with its contribution to South Africa’s GDP rising from 33% to almost 38%.

Gauteng’s unemployment rate declines from 34% in 2024 to 6% in 2035, with a median monthly wage of R10 000; its criminal justice system is better staffed and boasts enhanced technology; and the informal economy becomes mainstream while small businesses increase from 40% to 60% of GDP.

“We have also been able to take advantage of the global demand for critical minerals and have a strategy in place to leverage that. Gauteng remains an agglomeration of human capital.”

This comes about largely as a result of investment within the province by governments and by the private sector.

By 2035, all three spheres of government are dominated by centrist coalitions and there has been a shift towards issue-based voting rather than party loyalty, particularly among younger voters.

State capacity has been enhanced, which translates to enhanced service delivery.

“This good governance has, of course, meant better service delivery, more effective management in terms of water, energy, transportation, economic development and reducing spatial inequality.”

Omar commented that the report provides a sense of the different futures Gauteng could move toward, however, key to directing its path is the resolution of poverty, inequality and unemployment.

While these are main developmental challenges that are unlikely to be resolved by 2035, the province could start efforts to tackle them through a developmental path based on – and aligned with – the National Development Plan, national and Gauteng MTDPs and the 'Finding our rhythm' report scenarios.

He outlined three strategic goals, the first of which was increased economic growth and employment.

“The objectives we have identified are an increase in economic growth, a drastic reduction in unemployment rate to 6%; the elimination of food poverty and near elimination of lower-bound poverty; and a decrease in income inequality to a Gini coefficient of 0.6.”

This will require the province to leverage the AfCFTA for the Gauteng City Region to become a key node and the economic gateway to the rest of the continent, as well as leverage mining and industrial experience to attract investment and strengthen industries.

This also calls for the province to establish itself into a single, integrated special economic zone, besides other actions.

Under strategic goal 2: resilient and enhanced social protection system, the report outlined the introduction of a universal BIG, the multiplier effects of which need to be tracked; ensuring schools have sustainable water supplies and school feeding schemes; the implementation of sustainable water management practices and the rapid upgrading of water infrastructure; and the improvement of public health management across Gauteng, targeting investment to infrastructure and management of tertiary health services with a special focus on primary healthcare.

Also critical is the implementation of a robust information and communications technology (ICT) ecosystem to support government services such as education, health, electricity, water and the Department of Home Affairs, as is public WiFi to reduce cost of accessing services.

“We need to develop a plan to improve housing, hostels and services in informal settlements very rapidly,” Omar continued.

Strategic goal 3: a capable, ethical and developmental province, calls for the establishment of forums for consultation and communication among representatives of government, business, civil society, trade unions and labour, besides others.

The goal also requires the building of safer communities; making the criminal justice system more efficient; improving staff training and technology use; and clamping down on corruption, with special task forces to deal with construction and water mafias and other organised crime.

“We need to continue being vigilant and continue our work to improve government services, internal capacity, oversight and intergovernmental coordination and strengthening ICTs,” Omar said.

Also required is the strengthening of relations and coordination with the rest of the Southern African region and wider Africa to entrench Gauteng City Region's role as an African economic hub and gateway.