The stage is set. Upon a backdrop most famed for its stunning scenery, the semi-arid Karoo region,⁽²⁾ South Africa, is the “grand coliseum” in which disgruntled residents will do battle with prospective energy behemoths.⁽³⁾ Since a reversal of the government’s environmental moratorium on fracking in 2012,⁽⁴⁾ interest in exploitation of the predicted 370 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas is steadily mounting from domestic and international actors alike.⁽⁵⁾ At stake: a number of endemic flora species ⁽⁶⁾ and the livelihoods of some 300 000 residents.⁽⁷⁾

This CAI paper explores the potential socio-economic benefits that fracking could bring to both residents of the Karoo district and the wider South African economy.⁽⁸⁾ This is then contrasted with the highly debated environmental concerns shrouding hydraulic fracturing.

Energy revolution?

The Karoo basin may be pivotal to a fracking revolution à la the United States’ contested “success” in near energy independence.⁽⁹⁾ Hopes rest on shale gas as an alternative to the privileged position that coal-derived energy holds — 72% of total South African energy consumption.⁽¹⁰⁾ In fact, during electricity production shale gas emits less CO2 per mega-watt-hour than coal does.⁽¹¹⁾ Despite all the hopes pinned on the successful extraction of the accessible shale gas, the true quantitative total remains speculative at best. Variations occur largely due to a lack of sufficient research ⁽¹²⁾ and the complex geological makeup of the Karoo basin.⁽¹³⁾

South Africa’s reliance on coal shows no sign of diminishing, falling a mere 0.05% between 2011 and 2012.⁽¹⁴⁾ The majority of the country’s carbon emissions derive from coal-fuelled electricity and heat generation, contributing 38% of Africa’s total fuel combustion emissions.⁽¹⁵⁾ Plans are also in place for modernised coal-fired power stations from 2020 onwards, whilst a “big gas scenario” has been drawn, encompassing the hopes for an influx of shale gas.⁽¹⁶⁾ Alternatives such as nuclear have been dismissed over cost issues, whilst hydropower may become increasingly prominent.⁽¹⁷⁾ This dramatic rethinking of South African energy supply is largely due to the top-down institutional pressure from both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol and the 2009 Copenhagen Accord spurring CO2 emission reduction targets and demand for cleaner energy.⁽¹⁸⁾

Potential socio-economic benefits

In addition to emission reduction targets, increasing domestic energy security and generating new jobs appear high on the South African government’s agenda, with aspirations for five million new jobs between 2010 and 2020.⁽¹⁹⁾ The question is whether a growth in the fracking industry could facilitate at least a portion of this desired widening employment market.

It would be imprudent to expect the relatively successful fracking experiences of the US in creating a strong industry that has contributed significantly to the nation’s fuel security to transpose directly to South Africa. Multiple social, economic, political and geographic variations exist, yet job creation is a likely direct or indirect outcome of the shale gas exploration. For instance, substantial energy cost savings and a predicted one million new manufacturing jobs may be created by 2025 in the US as spin-off effects of fracking, especially in the chemical and metal industries.⁽²⁰⁾ If similar outcomes could be replicated in the Karoo, there is the potential for nationwide benefits, from the manufacturing chain to local communities.⁽²¹⁾

One caveat to this optimism, however, is the sparse academic research that has been undertaken on the projected economic gains from fracking, rather limiting this argument. The few studies that have been conducted, however, show that significant shale gas extraction would likely generate substantial economic gains.⁽²²⁾ This is of course only if the environmental implications of the process are reduced as far as possible, through efficient monitoring, regulation and stakeholder responsibility.⁽²³⁾ To meet increasing energy demands and to foster further economic growth, diversification of the country’s energy resources is critical; a gap fracking does have the potential to fill.⁽²⁴⁾

Environmental considerations

Drilling for shale gas is a physically intrusive endeavour. A proximity correlation exists: the closer a drill site lies to an ecosystem, the greater the disruption.⁽²⁵⁾ In the case of the Karoo, multiple survey drill sites are in operation, suggesting a homogenous destructive practice.

The Karoo basin is considered a “vulnerable” ecoregion,⁽²⁶⁾ with conservation efforts reaching less than 1% of the total land mass.⁽²⁷⁾ Concerns over water pollution, combined with the low annual rainfall — between 100mm and 500mm ⁽²⁸⁾ — are at the crux of the matter, with drought implications not fully understood.⁽²⁹⁾ Thus, due to vast hydro-demands of fracking operations, if using the US experience as a model,⁽³⁰⁾ there are clearly concerns over water security, with water competition between humans, flora and fauna increasingly fierce. Conversely, petrochemical firm Sasol, one of the major stakeholders in the Karoo fracking scheme, claims that it can frack in an “environmentally friendly fashion,” due to past experiences in British Colombia.⁽³¹⁾ Oxymoronic alarm bells sound upon hearing such a bold statement, with evidence too inconstant to deem fracking an operation harmonious with nature.

Ground water pollution as a result of fracking is a well-cited concern; however, one that is yet to be fully proven. On the other hand, instances have emerged of methane intrusion into water supplies, presumably from the rock fracturing, yet not of the fracking chemicals themselves.⁽³²⁾ Such scares, whilst not substantially grounded in evidence, call for the South African government to implement the anti-pollution regulations already published,⁽³³⁾ and to ensure regular monitoring and enforcement.

“Don’t frack with our Karoo”

Fracking may impact on Karoo communities in less tangible ways, severing the cultural-environmental nexus. Local traditional songs, spiritually linked to the “flow” of the Karoo’s water, are still sung today.⁽³⁴⁾ Shale exploration is feared to sever this bond, destabilising the natural hydrological balance. Communities residing in the Karoo are far from apathetic over the impending threat. The self-funding of the resistance movement Treasure the Karoo Action Group (TKAG) illustrates the tenacity, passion and personal sacrifice individuals are willing to exhibit in defence of the region,⁽³⁵⁾ with the lingering prospect of legal action.⁽³⁶⁾ Concerns primarily arise from the perceived invasion of property rights and the economic effects of drought on farmers, predicted as a “call to arms.”⁽³⁷⁾ The aforementioned proposition of job creation holds little gravity for such disgruntled residents. What is clear is that the major energy proprietors have made feeble attempts to consult residents;⁽³⁸⁾ perhaps liaisons could have appeased locals even slightly.

Anguished community voices are perpetuated through international media and backing from environmentalist groups, strengthening the anti-fracking campaign. It is hard, however, to support the TKAG’s cause fully, when no rational alternative development plan is given. The group shows great optimism for solar power. Considerations for “cleaner” energy are great on face value, yet thoughts for nuclear, hydroelectric and natural gas are distinctly absent.⁽³⁹⁾ Furthermore, it would be unwise to think that South Africa could simply replace its coal infrastructure. For job diversification, perhaps increasing environmental tourism by piggybacking on the tourist supply from the UNESCO World Heritage status could be explored further.⁽⁴⁰⁾

Concluding remarks

This discussion paper highlights the human and environmental implications that fracking may cause in the Karoo basin. A number of academic and journalistic pieces cite the risk of water pollution, yet considerations for the less tangible cultural and spiritual connections that fracking threatens are less documented. It can be deduced that fracking processes will have a significant obtrusive impact on the fragile and largely unprotected Karoo. Efforts can be taken to limit these effects, but are entirely dependent on strict monitoring and enforcement by the South African government. Continuous stakeholder liaison is a necessity, especially given the potential human rights concerns and the rhetoric of violent mobilisation.

Before fracking considerations progress any further, substantial scientific and academic analysis, independent of government or industry agencies must be undertaken, so that a real ecological cost/benefit analysis can be charted. If opposition movements are to gain greater political ground, perhaps efforts should be directed towards conservation of the Karoo. Although radical, greater conservation declarations bestowed upon the Karoo would be an effective buffer to industry. Whether the government would support such moves given the need for alternative energy, is another matter.

Written by Andrew Munro ⁽¹⁾

NOTES:

(1) Andrew Munro is a Research Associate with CAI, with an interest in the human impacts and security implications of climate change. Contact Andrew through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Enviro Africa unit ( enviro.africa@consultancyafrica.com). Edited by Liezl Stretton. Research Manager: Angela Kariuki.
(2) Pitock, T., ‘In arid South African lands, fracking controversy emerges’, Yale Environment 360, August 2011, http://www.Yale360.edu.
(3) Stoddard, E., ‘Update 1 - Sasol keen for piece of S. Africa shale gas action’, Reuters, 10 March 2014, http://www.reuters.com.
(4) ‘South Africa analysis brief’, U.S Energy Information Administration, February 2014, http://www.eia.gov.
(5) ‘World shale gas and shale oil resource assessment’, US Energy Information Administration, June 2013, http://www.eia.gov.
(6) Gibbs Russel, G.E., 1987. Preliminary floristic analysis of the major biomes in Southern Africa. Bothalia, 17, pp. 213-227.
(7) Pitock, T., ‘In arid South African lands, fracking controversy emerges’, Yale Environment 360, August 2011, http://www.Yale360.edu.
(8) For an explanation of fracking, see Shukman, D., ‘What is fracking and why is it controversial?’, BBC News UK, 27 June 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(9) Yergin, D., ‘Congratulations America. You’re (almost) energy independent’, Politico, November 2013, http://www.politico.com; Ahmed, Y., ‘Write-down of two-thirds of US shale oil explodes fracking myth’, Guardian, 22 May 2014, http://www.theguardian.com.
(10) ‘South Africa analysis brief’, U.S Energy Information Administration, February 2014, http://www.eia.gov.
(11) Cohen, B. and Winkler, H., 2014. Greenhouse gas emissions from shale gas and coal for electricity generation in South Africa. South African Journal of Science, 110(3/4), pp. 1-5.
(12) ‘Investigation of hydraulic fracturing in the Karoo Basin of South Africa’, Republic of South Africa Department of Mineral Resources, September 2012, http://www.dmr.gov.
(13) ‘World shale gas and shale oil resource assessment’, US Energy Information Administration, June 2013, http://www.eia.gov.
(14) ‘BP statistical review of world energy’, BP, June 2014, http://www.bp.com.
(15) ‘CO2 emissions from fuel combustion highlights’, International Energy Agency, 2013, http://www.iea.org.
(16) ‘Integrated resource plan for electricity’, Republic of South Africa Department of Energy, November 2013, http://www.doe-irp.co.za.
(17) Ibid.
(18) Republic of South Africa Department of Energy website, http://www.energy.gov.za; ‘Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change’, United Nations, 1998, http://www.unfccc.com.
(19) ‘Framework of the New Economic Growth Plan’, South African Government, October 2014, http://www.gov.za.
(20) ‘Shale gas: A renaissance in US manufacturing?’, PwC, December 2011, http://www.pwc.com.
(21) ‘Investigation of hydraulic fracturing in the Karoo Basin of South Africa’, Republic of South Africa Department of Mineral Resources, September 2012, http://www.dmr.gov.
(22) ‘Karoo shale gas report’, Econometrix, January 2012, http://www.cer.org.za.
(23) Wait, R. and Rossouw, R., 2014. A comparative assessment of the economic benefits from shale gas extraction in the Karoo, South Africa. Southern African Business Review, 18(2), pp. 1-34.
(24) ‘Karoo shale gas report’, Econometrix, January 2012, http://www.cer.org.za.
(25) Burton, G., et al., 2014. Hydraulic “Fracking”: Are surface water impacts an ecological concern? Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 33(8), pp. 1679-1689.
(26) World Wildlife Fund website, http://www.worldwildlife.org.
(27) Barnard, P., et al., 1998. Extending the Namibian protected area network to safeguard hotspots of endemism and diversity. Biodiversity and
Conservation, 7, pp. 531-547.
(28) Desmet, P.G. and Cowling, R.M., 1999. “The climate of the Karoo – A functional approach”, in Dean, W.R.J. and Milton, S.J. (eds.). The Karoo: Ecological patterns and processes. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
(29) Hoffman, M.T., et al., 2009. Drought, climate change and vegetation response in the succulent Karoo, South Africa. South African Journal of Science, 1, pp. 54-60.
(30) FrackFocus 2013 Chemical Database, http://www.frack.skytruth.org.
(31) Stoddard, E., ‘Update 1 - Sasol keen for piece of S. Africa shale gas action’, Reuters, 10 March 2014, http://www.reuters.com.
(32) Holzman, D.C., 2011. Natural resources: Methane found in well water near fracking sites. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119(7), p. 289.
(33) ‘Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act 38, 2002’, South African Department of Mineral Resources, http://www.dmr.gov.za.
(34) Jorritsma, M., 2012. “Don’t frack with our Karoo”: Water, landscape, and congregational song in Kroonvale, South Africa. Safundi: The Journal of South African and American Studies, 13(3-4), pp. 373-391.
(35) Treasure the Karoo Action Group website, http://www.treasurethekaroo.co.za.
(36) Cropley, E., ‘Update 1- S. African anti-fracking group threatens legal challenge’, Reuters, 22 July 2014, http://www.reuters.com.
(37) Pitock, T., ‘In arid South African lands, fracking controversy emerges’, Yale Environment 360, August 2011, http://www.Yale360.edu.
(38) Ibid.
(39) ‘Alternative energy’, Treasure the Karoo Action Group, http://www.treasurethekaroo.co.za.
(40) ‘Succulent Karoo protected areas’, UNESCO World Heritage Convention, http://www.unesco.org.