The replacement of a second Finance Minister in South Africa within five days has not enhanced confidence in government effectiveness and leaves questions over the direction of economic policy, Fitch Ratings cautioned in a statement on Tuesday.
In this context, the agency held that February's budget would be an important event in assessing the government's commitment to prudent management of the public finances.
This came as newly reappointed Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan on Monday described government's expenditure ceiling as “sacrosanct”, adding government would “unreservedly continue our fiscal consolidation process and we will stabilise our debt in the medium term”.
Fitch viewed the nominal noninterest ceiling, which the government had met since 2012, as an important pillar of fiscal discipline.
“Nevertheless, the reappointment of Gordhan does not remove all the uncertainty over government effectiveness and the coherence and credibility of economic policy generated during a turbulent week.
“The market reaction to the [surprise appointment of David van Rooyen] and President Jacob Zuma's subsequent [change of heart] may strengthen the hand of Gordhan and those in the cabinet arguing for prudent fiscal policy, at least in the near-term.
“However, the earlier appointment of van Rooyen in place of Nene still raises questions over Zuma's motivation for the change and what it reveals about his economic policy preferences,” Fitch noted.
It added that change in leadership at the National Treasury would be relevant to its sovereign rating assessment if it led to a loosening of fiscal policy or weakening in the transparency and financial management of State-owned companies, which represented a contingent liability to the sovereign.
Clarity over government policy regarding the proposed nuclear power building programme and procurement plans by South Africa Airways would also be instructive in the wake of this week's events.
Fitch identified looser fiscal policy, which resulted in a failure to stabilise the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product as a rating sensitivity when it downgraded South African to 'BBB-' Stable on December 4.
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