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Fact-checked: South African president Cyril Ramaphosa’s 6th state of the nation address


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Fact-checked: South African president Cyril Ramaphosa’s 6th state of the nation address

Africa Check logo

16th February 2022

By: Africa Check

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South Africa’s 2022 state of the nation address (Sona) was different, with president Cyril Ramaphosa forced to deliver it from the Cape Town city hall after a fire gutted the national assembly.

Ramaphosa said the fire was symbolic of the devastation caused by Covid-19, rising unemployment, deepening poverty and riots in the country in July 2021.

But a fire can also lead to renewal, as Ramaphosa spoke of rebuilding the country's democracy, reforming the economy and targeting corruption.

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In his speech the president made a number of claims about unemployment, vaccination, electricity, cannabis and social grants.

We checked if he was right. (Note: We will be adding more claims to this report as we complete assessing them.)

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Claim: “Over the past two years [the Covid-19 pandemic] has … put 2-million people out of work.”

Verdict: Correct

Ramaphosa made a similar claim on 8 January 2022, when he gave a speech to commemorate the 110th anniversary of the founding of the ruling African National Congress. In the speech he put the number of job losses at “around 1.5-million”, which we rated incorrect because it was based on unemployment data that wasn’t the most recent.

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), the country's national data agency, collects data on unemployment which it publishes in its quarterly labour force survey (QLFS).

The agency’s latest release estimated that there were 14 282 000 people employed during July to September 2021. During January to March 2020, when the pandemic began, there were an estimated 16 383 000 people employed.

This is 2 101 000 fewer people employed. Ramaphosa is (now) correct. – Keegan Leech

Claim:  “So far we have as a nation administered some 30 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines …”

Verdict: Correct

South Africa’s Covid-19 vaccination programme includes the Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer-BioNtech vaccines as of February 2022.

Statistics on the vaccination rollout include data recorded on the Electronic Vaccination Data System (EVDS) but exclude vaccination data captured on paper. The EVDS is an online portal where people can register for vaccines.

According to the government’s Covid-19 news portal, totals will be adjusted as paper-based records are captured.

At time of publication, approximately 30.7-million doses had been administered in total. Of these doses, 7.54-million were Johnson & Johnson and 23.16-million were Pfizer.

Ramaphosa’s claim is correct. – Naledi Mashishi

Claim: “Nearly 42% of all adults and 60% of everyone over 50 years of age is fully vaccinated. And this is a real achievement that many countries on our continent have not been able to reach.”

Verdict: Understated

According to EVDS records on 10 February, 47.08% of the adult population has been vaccinated. The age group with the highest vaccination rate is those above 60 in which 69.33% of men and 66.26% of women are vaccinated.

In the 50-59 years cohort, 63.54% of men and 63.42% of women are vaccinated. Ramaphosa therefore understated the country’s current vaccination numbers.

The president is correct, however, when it comes to South Africa’s vaccination coverage compared to the rest of the continent.

According to the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 28.36% of South Africa’s total population is fully vaccinated.

This places South Africa behind other countries on the continent such as Seychelles (78.60%), Morocco (62.65%), Rwanda (55.72%), Botswana (46.76%) and Cape Verde (44.67%).

But South Africa is still ahead of most African countries. In total, only 11.69% of Africans on the continent have been vaccinated. And countries such as Uganda, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, and Somalia have yet to vaccinate more than 10% of their total population.

Eritrea is the only country on the continent that has not yet started a Covid-19 vaccination program. – Naledi Mashishi

Claim: “Last year our unemployment rate reached its highest recorded level.”

Verdict:  Correct

Statistics South Africa’s quarterly labour force survey (QLFS) only began in 2008. Dr Thabi Leoka, an economist and chief executive of Naha Investments, previously explained to Africa Check that recent unemployment data cannot be accurately compared to data gathered prior to 2008.

“When we say the highest recorded, we mean since 2008,” Leoka said.

The most recent QLFS indicates that the unemployment rate of 34,9% was – by any measure – higher in the period July to September 2021 than it has been since the survey began.

Ramaphosa is correct. – Keegan Leech

Claim: “Our country has a shortfall of around 4 000 megawatts of electricity.”

Verdict: Understated

“Due to our ageing power stations, poor maintenance, policy missteps and the ruinous effects of state capture, our country has a shortfall of around 4 000 megawatts of electricity,” Ramaphosa said.

In his 2021 state of the nation speech Ramaphosa said electricity public utility Eskom had estimated an electricity supply shortfall of “between 4 000 and 6 000 megawatts over the next five years”.

Africa Check spoke to Anton Eberhard, director of the Power Futures Lab at the University of Cape Town’s business school, who said it was difficult to put a precise number to the shortfall in South Africa.

“It depends in part on the availability of Eskom power stations and what reserve margin is considered prudent,” he said.

Eberhard said that Eskom had “very little spare available generation capacity” and that its plant performance was unpredictable.

“Most assessments are that we need an additional 4 000 to 6 000 megawatts of available capacity for a secure system.”

Chris Yelland, an energy analyst at consultancy firm EE Business Intelligence, said the president’s claim was understated. He thought the shortfall was closer to 6 000 megawatts.

Eberhard said “the shortfall will increase as old coal power stations, which have reached their end of lives, are decommissioned”.

Experts advised that the shortfall amount, although difficult to pinpoint, was higher than Ramaphosa said. We rate this claim as understated. – Taryn Khourie

Claim: “Our immediate neighbour Lesotho has gone ahead in the industrialisation of cannabis in leaps and bounds.”

Verdict: Correct

Cannabis is a plant containing a host of chemicals which have various physical and psychological effects when consumed. The use of the plant, and many of its derivatives, has historically been widely prohibited, though in the 21st century its legal status has begun to change in many countries.

The plant has been used ceremonially and medicinally in Lesotho, South Africa’s landlocked neighbour, for centuries. A number of social, environmental, economic and political forces have made cannabis cultivation a popular income source in the country. `

In 2008, Lesotho introduced a drugs of abuse act that was largely consistent with previous prohibitionist policies, except for permitting the cultivation of medical cannabis. But the regulations to go along with this reportedly did not come into place until interest from international companies in the late 2010s.

As of 2019, various licences had been granted to international companies for a starting period of 10 years. Even so, mystery still surrounds cannabis licensing in Lesotho. It has been reported that there was even uncertainty in the government about how many licences had been granted.

In early 2021, a Lesotho-based firm became the first in Africa licensed to export medical cannabis to the European Union. Later that year, Highland Investments, an international licensed cannabis cultivator, announced a shipment of some 8.5 tonnes of cannabis to Europe. It was touted as one of the largest legal shipments of medical cannabis to date.

Though cultivation licences were initially given out without a fee, growers now have to pay large sums to gain entry into the medical market. They also bear the high cost of specialised equipment needed to adhere to international growing standards.

This is generally unaffordable to small-scale growers and often has the effect of keeping them in the black market while larger international companies operate formally. – Kirsten Cosser

Claim: “The social relief of distress grant has provided support to more than 10 million unemployed people…”

Verdict: Correct

The social relief of distress (SRD) grant was introduced in May 2020 as temporary relief for low and no income households who experienced financial hardship because of the lockdown measures to curb the spread of Covid-19.

It has now been expanded to include South Africans who are in such “dire material need that they are unable to meet their families’ most basic needs”. This can include being a victim of a crisis or disaster, being unable to work and the death or imprisonment of the family breadwinner.

Applicants must be older than 18, unemployed, not receiving any income and not receiving any social grant.

It pays R350 a month and has been extended until March 2022.

Paseka Letsatsi is the spokesperson for the South African Social Security Agency. He told Africa Check that as of 8 February, the agency had received, “a total of 15,187,899 applications for the Covid relief grant, of which 10,451,360 have been approved for payment”. – Naledi Mashishi

This report was written by Africa Check., a non-partisan fact-checking organisation. View the original piece on their website.

 

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