Writing in the 1950s and 1960s, the French political sociologist, Maurice Duverger, identified a correlation in the electoral systems of European democracies. This theory, now popularly known in political science as Duverger’s Law, holds that those countries with a ‘first past the post’ or plurality system become essentially two-party states.⁽²⁾ In essence, due to the challenges presented by fielding strong candidates in single-member constituencies scattered across a country, power and resources become consolidated in the two parties that are most likely to secure a simple majority in the legislature. Over time, this consolidation leads to smaller niche parties becoming increasingly marginalised or dissolving entirely. At the same time, Duverger’s Law contends that proportional representation leads to multi-partism. Given the nature of this electoral system, with multi-member constituencies and electoral thresholds for representation in the legislature, the country’s political landscape can be more diverse. Multiple parties prosper and no single party can dominate for long without either re-inventing itself or finding ways to cooperate with other parties to reach compromises and successfully adopt legislation.

The identification of these trends in Europe and North America by Duverger has been of tremendous benefit, allowing analysts to more closely examine the nexus between a democracy’s party and electoral systems. But, in the intervening years, countries across Africa have attained independence from colonial rule and forged democratic institutions. This paper discusses the extent to which Duverger’s Law is able to explain electoral trends in Africa, exploring to what extent African elections confirm or challenge this theory.

Focus on West Africa

Due to the diversity of the Economic Community of West African States’ (ECOWAS) electoral systems, the focus of this paper will be on the member states of this region for the purpose of testing Duverger’s Law. As a result of varying external influences and internal factors, West African countries have adopted a range of voting methods (and of determining precisely who has won an election). For example, many countries make use of plurality-based electoral systems, such as in Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone; whereas other countries have adopted proportional representation, including Benin, Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire and Niger. Still others, for example, Mali, use a blend of the two systems. The 15 ECOWAS member states, therefore, present an excellent sample of democratic and electoral trends in Africa.

Accordingly, West Africa offers a wealth of case studies whereby one can apply this analysis, whereas other regions on the African continent are either characterised by relatively homogenous electoral systems or do not have adequately developed democratic institutions to examine through the lens of Duverger’s Law. Broadening the scope to the entire continent would confront any analyst with problematic cases, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which has held only four parliamentary elections in the past 32 years (many of which have been characterised by violence). As far as concrete data is concerned, West Africa has much to offer.

Two-party states

A brief survey of recent election results indicates that there is indeed a strong correlation between two-party systems and plurality voting. In Ghana, recent elections have been dominated by the National Democratic Coalition (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP). In the 2012 general election, the NDC took 148 of the national legislature’s 275 seats, while the NPP took 123. Aside from these two parties, the Convention People’s Party (CPP) and the People’s National Convention (PNC) took one seat each; with the remaining three seats won by independent candidates. In short, Ghana is a classic two-party system, with no credible challenger to the dominance of the NDC and NPP.⁽³⁾

Nigeria has historically adhered to Duverger’s Law but this may be changing. Since 1999, the country’s elections were largely dominated by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP). But the 2011 general election saw a slight decline in the ANPP’s fortunes and the rise of two other opposition parties. In the Senate, the PDP secured 45 of 109 seats, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) took 13, while the ANPP obtained 7 and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) took 5.⁽⁴⁾ In the House of Representatives, the PDP maintained power by laying claim to 123 of the 360 seats, while the ACN took 47 seats in comparison with the ANPP’s 25 and the CPC’s 30 seats respectively. Clearly, Nigeria is experiencing a political shift as the ANPP enters a period of decline and the ACN and CPC rise in prominence. Whether the country’s politics will again consolidate into a two-party system, as the PDP and ACN or the PDP and CPC dominate future elections, remains to be seen. If future elections are three-way contests, this would certainly make Nigeria an exception to Duverger’s Law.

After years of civil war, Sierra Leone has rapidly consolidated into a two-party system. The All People’s Congress (APC) and Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) now hold all the seats in the country’s unicameral legislature, with 12 seats reserved for elected tribal chiefs.⁽⁵⁾ In 2002 and 2007, a third party was able to obtain representation in the legislature, albeit significantly smaller than that secured by the APC and SLPP. For example, the People’s Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC) won 10 of 124 seats in 2007, while the Peace and Liberation Party (PLP) won 2 in 2002. With the loss of the PMDC’s representation in 2012, Sierra Leone confirms Duverger’s Law.

Ghana and Sierra Leone seem to demonstrate that Duverger’s Law may be applicable to the West African context. But there are some peculiar exceptions when it comes to two-party states in the region. Benin, Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau all utilise proportional representation despite the fact that they have consolidated into two-party systems. In Benin, though there was historically a diverse range of parties represented in the legislature prior to 2003, two electoral alliances have emerged as the dominant forces in Beninese politics: the Cowry Forces for an Emerging Benin, and the Union Makes the Nation (UN).⁽⁶⁾ In Cape Verde, the system is even more strongly consolidated, with two parties dominating the legislature: the African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde (PAICV), and the Movement for Democracy (MDP).⁽⁷⁾ Only one other party obtained representation in that country’s 2011 parliamentary election – the Democratic and Independent Cape Verdean Union – winning 2 of 72 seats. Though Guinea-Bissau has been plagued by coup d’états and the repeated postponement of elections, the country’s political scene has also been largely dominated by two parties: the African Independence Party of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), and the Party for Social Renewal (PSR).⁽⁸⁾

These countries - Benin, Cape Verde, and Guinea-Bissau - seem to challenge Duverger’s Law by possessing two-party systems despite also embracing proportional representation. However, this anomaly may be, in part, due to a lack of party development in other areas. Plurality voting tends to result in two-party systems because it gives only the winner in each constituency a seat; a party which consistently comes in second or third in every constituency across the country will not gain any representation in the legislature, even if this translates into a significant nation-wide share of the vote. Be that as it may, proportional representation can potentially lead to a two-party system where individual parties are weak and have not developed a solid internal structure. Under such circumstances, weak parties will experience a ‘fusion’, merging into increasingly cohesive electoral coalitions that more or less behave as political parties would in a strong democracy.⁽⁹⁾ This is most clearly apparent in the case of Benin, where the opposition UN party is in fact an alliance of nine smaller parties.
 

Multi-partism

Among the West African states to have adopted proportional representation, there are a number that enjoy multi-partism and a diverse political environment. For example, Niger has generally enjoyed a three party system, with the Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism (NPDS), the National Movement for the Development of Society (NMDS), and the Nigerian Democratic Movement for an African Federation (NDMAF) all fairly evenly matched. In 2009, the NMDS briefly held an overwhelming majority in the unicameral legislature, to the tune of 76 of the body’s 113 seats. Following a brief period of instability, Niger returned to a three party system after an early parliamentary election in 2011.⁽¹⁰⁾

For the most part, however, West Africa’s countries with proportional representation either have become two-party systems (as in the aforementioned case of Benin, Cape Verde, and Guinea-Bissau), or are one-party states. In The Gambia, the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC) has ruled since the party’s founders came to power through a coup d’état in 1994. In Burkina Faso, the Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) has maintained exclusive control over the executive and legislative branches of the Burkinabé Government since the party’s inception in 1996.⁽¹¹⁾ Prior to that, the CDP’s predecessor, the Organisation for Popular Democracy – Labour Movement (OPD-LM), similarly held uncontested power in Burkina Faso. Togo, Senegal and Guinea are all essentially one-party states as well.

Côte d'Ivoire might be considered to be part of the same category as Benin, Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau. Despite its system of proportional representation, the 2011 parliamentary election was largely dominated by two parties in particular: Rally of the Republicans (RDR) and the Democratic Party of Ivory Coast – African Democratic Rally (DPIC-ADR). However, the most recent parliamentary election held in that country took place in 2000-2001. The 2011 election was boycotted by the previously ruling Ivorian Popular Front.⁽¹²⁾ Considering these factors, it is too early to say with certainty what shape Ivorian democracy might take in the coming years or whether the dominance of the RDR and DPIC-ADR is sustainable.

The Liberian exception

There is a surprising champion for multi-partism in West Africa, and it is not a country with an electoral system based on proportional representation. That exception to the rule is Liberia. Liberia has a long democratic tradition, having held its first general election in 1847. But that tradition was upended when a military coup d’état interrupted Liberia’s regular cycle of elections in 1980. The 1985 general election, which cemented Samuel Doe’s power in the country, was marred by allegations of widespread fraud and vote rigging. Civil war and another marred election in 1997 only further damaged Liberia’s commitment to democracy.

Liberia is however making impressive progress in reviving its democracy. Though Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has secured significant majorities in the presidential votes of the 2005 and 2011 general elections, the results for the legislative branch have been much more evenly distributed across multiple parties. In 2011, the Unity Party secured 24 of 73 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) gained 11, the Liberty Party took 7, and the National Union for Democratic Progress (NUDP) took 6. In all, 73 seats were distributed between 11 political parties and 9 independent candidates. The situation was similar in the Senate. Of that chamber’s 30 seats, 10 were obtained by the Unity Party, 6 by the National Patriotic Party (which obtained only 3 in the House of Representatives in the same election), 3 by the CDC, and 2 by the NUDP. The Senate has seats held by nine political parties in total, as well as three independent candidates.⁽¹³⁾

The situation was similar in 2005. In that election, the CDC received the most seats, with 15 in the House of Representatives. The Unity Party, meanwhile, obtained only eight seats. The Liberty Party won nine seats, while the now defunct Coalition for the Transformation of Liberia (COTOL) matched the Unity Party with eight seats.⁽¹⁴⁾ Despite its long history of plurality voting, it is apparent from the 2005 and 2011 election results that no one party is close to achieving dominance in Liberia. Though Sirleaf has been successful in both presidential bids since the country’s return to peace, and though she is associated with the Unity Party, the continued power of the Unity Party in Liberia is far from guaranteed. The CDC could return to power in a future general election. Alternatively, a number of other parties are positioned to ascend in a similar manner to the Unity Party, such as the Liberty Party, the NUDC, or even the National Patriotic Party.

In the coming years, Liberia could well affirm the principles of Duverger’s Law, consolidating into a two-party system based on the success to date of the Unity Party and the Congress for Democratic Change. But even the Coalition for the Transformation of Liberia’s strong showing in 2005 did not prevent that party’s dissolution. As it stands now, Liberia’s democracy is a vibrant multiparty system, where an array of political parties have the potential to influence outcomes. This provides the Liberian voter ample choice in elections, whereas plurality voting is generally assumed to offer voters essentially two options, such as the Ghanaian’s choice between the National Democratic Congress or the New Patriotic Party.

Conclusion

ECOWAS truly has a diverse membership. As has been described here, West Africa is home to a range of electoral systems, making it an excellent sample for studying democratic trends. Though Duverger’s Law was originally conceived for a different time in a different part of the world, the theory largely seems to be affirmed by recent West African elections. Ghana and Sierra Leone have consolidated into two-party systems, in part due to plurality voting. Benin, Togo, Cape Verde and others also adhere to Duverger’s Law despite utilising proportional representation, developing two-party systems simply due to weak political parties and the rise in prevalence of electoral coalitions.

However, some noteworthy exceptions have been identified here. A shift in the political landscape of Nigeria is occurring and the 2011 general election saw a shift in the balance of power from two parties to three. Whether this trend will continue through future election cycles is difficult to ascertain, but it would certainly have interesting implications for politics in Nigeria and the surrounding region. The success of a third party in Nigeria could embolden opposition politicians in other countries previously dominated by a two-party system, such as Ghana. Another fascinating challenge to Duverger’s Law comes from Liberia, where multiple parties vie for votes and each has a reasonably decent chance of winning. Once again, whether multi-partism will prevail in a post-Sirleaf era remains to be seen.

For the most part, as far as the West African context is concerned, Duverger’s Law remains relevant in 2014. But the most radical exceptions to the rule – Nigeria and Liberia – will merit close study from analysts in the future. When Liberia next holds its general election in 2017, President Sirleaf will not be eligible to run for another term. It is unclear whether another standard-bearer for the Unity Party will emerge in time, and whether such a figure could lead the Unity Party to another election victory. The departure of Sirleaf from the presidency could pave the way for yet another major change in the makeup of that country’s House of Representatives and the Senate, not to mention the presidency. Similarly, Nigeria’s next general election in 2015 could see the further entrenchment of multi-partism or a return to two-party rule. Whatever the outcome of these elections and others, West Africa is on course to remain an intriguing region for political study.

Written by: Paul Pryce

NOTES:

(1)Paul Pryce is a Consultant with CAI and a British freelance researcher focusing on international relations and electoral issues. Contact Paul through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Election & Democracy Unit (election.democracy@consultancyafrica.com). Edited by Liezl Stretton.
(2) Duverger, M., 1972. “Factors in a Two-Party and Multiparty System”, in Duverger, M. (ed.). Party politics and pressure groups. Thomas Y. Crowell: New York.
(3) Pryce, P. and Oidtmann, R., 2013. The 2012 general election in Ghana. Electoral Studies, 32(1), pp. 173-181.
(4) ‘Nigeria ruling party loses political ground’, Al-Jazeera, 10 April 2011, http://www.aljazeera.com.
(5) Akam, S., ‘Sierra Leone’s Koroma promises growth in new term’, Reuters, 23 November 2012, http://www.trust.org.
(6) Vidjingninou, F., ‘Benin votes in parliamentary election’, AFP, 30 April 2011, http://www.rnw.nl.
(7) Andrade, A., ‘Cape Verde opposition concedes defeat’, Reuters, 7 February 2011, http://www.reuters.com.
(8) ‘Guinea-Bissau holds high stakes election’, France24, 18 March 2012, http://www.france24.com.
(9) Schlesinger, J. and Schlesinger, M., 2006. Maurice Duverger and the study of political parties. French Politics, 4(58), pp. 58-68.
(10) ‘Niger holds peaceful election designed to restore civilian rule’, Voice of America, 31 January 2011, http://www.voanews.com.
(11) Pryce, P. and Nascimento, I., 2013. The 2012 parliamentary election in Burkina Faso. Electoral Studies, 32(1), pp. 182-190.
(12) Peyron, J., ‘Boycott by Gbagbo party clouds Ivory Coast polls’, France24, 9 January 2012, http://www.france24.com.
(13) ‘Liberia’s election: Winner takes all’, The Economist, 19 November 2011, http://www.economist.com.
(14) Harris, D., 2006. Liberia 2005: An unusual African post-conflict election. Journal of Modern African Studies, 44(3), pp. 375-395.