The Western Cape's Covid-19 cases will need to halve before the province leaves the third wave, but modelling suggests that this could be in the next two weeks.

For the province to exit the third wave, cases need to have reduced by around 15% from those recorded at the peak of the third wave – which would be at around 530 daily cases, on average, said Western Cape Health MEC Nomafrench Mbombo.

According to the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium, there is a 94% probability that the third wave will have ended by 27 September.

Only Gauteng and Limpopo have exited the third wave so far.

The Western Cape currently has, on average, 1 000 new cases daily. At the peak of the third wave, there were 3 500 daily new infections on average, said the Western Cape health department chief operating officer Saadiq Kariem in a digital briefing on Thursday.

Hospital admissions and deaths have also shown a decrease, with an average of 170 new admissions and 52 deaths respectively each day.

Based on the seven-day moving average, the number of cases in the province decreased by 36%, Kariem said.

"Actual cases were slightly higher than predicted for the past week, but overall [we] continue to expect declining case numbers," he said.

According to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), the Western Cape had recorded 1 179 new cases as of Wednesday. The total number of cases is 503 652. The Western Cape has the majority of new cases (25%) in the country.

"We have now passed the peak of the third wave, with signs of continues decline, but we urged everyone to adhere strictly to protective behaviours to contain it over the coming weeks," said Kariem.