The war in the Middle East represents a historic shock to commodity markets, resulting in the largest oil supply loss on record. Assuming the most acute phase of commodity trade disruptions ends shortly and shipping volumes gradually return to near prewar levels by October, average commodity prices are projected to rise by 16 percent in 2026 – the first annual increase since 2022.

With both oil and natural gas prices having soared amid supply shortfalls, average energy prices are forecast to increase by 24 percent in 2026. The Brent oil price is expected to average $86 per barrel, an upward revision of $26 since January. However, the supply shocks brought about by the war are broad-based. Prices for fertilisers are projected to soar, and prices of food commodities and base metals are also projected to increase.

Average base metals and precious metals prices are both projected to reach all-time highs. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted firmly toward higher prices. If disruptions in the Middle East prove more protracted or severe than assumed, the Brent oil price in 2026 could average $95 to $115 per barrel. The Special Focus in this edition quantifies the effects of geopolitical oil supply shocks, as distinct from other sources of oil supply variation.

It estimates that during times of surging geopolitical risk, a 1 percent reduction in oil production generates a peak oil price increase, on average, of more than 11 percent, nearly twice the increase reported in previous studies for oil supply shocks in general.

Report by the World Bank Group