This piece explores the complexities of the relationship between Russia and South Africa, and how they must respond to international pressures, economic challenges and shifting global dynamics.

In mid-2023, South Africa was confronted with a significant diplomatic challenge. As host of the BRICS summit, the country faced the possibility of having to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin due to an International Criminal Court warrant and South Africa being a member of the ICC if he attended. This incident vividly illustrates the complexities of the current relationship between Russia and South Africa. While their ties are deeply rooted in historical solidarity, they have to respond to international pressures, economic challenges and shifting global dynamics.

Last week, a significant event in Pretoria sought to unpack these complexities. The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) organised a behind-closed-doors dialogue between Russian and South African experts on bilateral relations. The roundtable touched on several topics urgently needing an exchange of views, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Sahel region and the expansion of the BRICS. In an era of academic boycotts and heightened tensions, such frank discussions are of immense importance. They provide a platform for direct engagement, ensuring that both countries’ foreign policy decisions are informed by first-hand insights rather than potentially misaligned third-party assessments.

The dialogue revealed a relationship that is difficult to define. Historic ties stemming from Soviet support for the anti-apartheid struggle continue to influence perceptions, particularly among older generations. However, this legacy is fading as a new cohort of policymakers emerges without those personal, political and often emotional connections. As a result, while Russia attempts to regain Soviet-era influence in Africa, Russia can no longer rely solely on anti-colonial rhetoric. Instead, it must find new avenues for engagement that resonate with Africa’s contemporary development agenda.

South Africa’s policy of non-alignment has come under intense scrutiny, particularly regarding its stance on the Ukraine conflict. The government has attempted to walk a tightrope, calling for dialogue and peaceful resolution while refusing to publicly condemn Russia and abstaining from Western-led sanctions because it only implements UN Security Council-endorsed measures. This ‘strategic ambiguity’ has drawn domestic and international criticism but reflects South Africa’s desire to maintain autonomy in its foreign relations.

Interestingly, Moscow’s reception of this stance has been lukewarm. While Russia accepted South Africa’s predicament regarding Putin’s potential arrest, it had expected stronger support from its BRICS partner. Putin’s subsequent visit to Mongolia, also an ICC member that did not arrest the Russian president, served as a reminder that perhaps more could have been done. However, from South Africa’s perspective, Putin’s presence would have overshadowed a crucial summit that saw the expansion of the BRICS and decisions to enhance intra-BRICS trade. More importantly, it would have sparked a domestic legal crisis. This is because the Supreme Court of Appeal issued a ruling clarifying the country’s legal obligations after South Africa refused to arrest President Al-Bashir during his 2015 visit to an African Union summit in Johannesburg.

The relationship between Russia and South Africa is characterised by geographical distance and limited economic ties, making it relatively shallow despite critical historical connections. Over the years, trade volumes have always been relatively low compared to political goodwill and sanctions have created new barriers. In 2023, South Africa exported $282-million (mainly citrus fruits) to Russia and imported $522-million (primarily fertilisers and oil). Neither country ranks among the other’s top trading partners. However, Russia’s removal from the SWIFT payment system, the country’s limited capacity to engage in trade and the risk of secondary sanctions present significant challenges to Russia-South Africa’s economic relations. This reality has generated anxiety about choosing between major global powers in many Global South capitals.

This dynamic demonstrates that bilateral relations are not simply based on emotional or tangible indicators. Instead, the government’s calculations, even when seemingly confusing or contradictory, are part of a broader assessment of its position in a world increasingly defined by competition between major countries, particularly the United States and China.

Since the launch of the Joe Biden Administration’s Sub-Saharan Africa Strategy in 2022, the United States has taken a more active approach to the continent. This is evident in initiatives such as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s recent visits to Angola, Djibouti and Kenya as part of the US push to implement the Lobito Corridor project. The Lobito Corridor aims to improve regional trade and infrastructure by connecting Angola’s Lobito port to neighbouring countries like Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, enhancing regional economic integration. However, US engagement in Africa often seems driven by a zero-sum mindset with China as the key competitor. As South Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner, China’s influence significantly affects the government’s long-term strategic decisions. The rising tensions between the US and China weigh heavily on South Africa’s foreign policy. At the same time, despite its presence, Russia tends to serve more as a symbolic counterbalance than a serious economic player.

Following the group’s expansion, South Africa navigates an evolving landscape within BRICS. The addition of Egypt and Ethiopia alters African dynamics within the bloc, potentially diluting South Africa’s role as the continent’s primary voice. However, it also creates opportunities for greater regional cooperation and advancing African interests on the global stage.

Looking ahead, several factors will shape the trajectory of Russia-South Africa relations. First, the tension between values and interests is likely to be a critical aspect. South Africa’s commitment to human rights and a rules-based international order often conflicts with Russia’s realpolitik approach. Bridging this ideological gap while maintaining pragmatic cooperation and balancing its relations with the West will remain a significant challenge for South Africa.

Second, socio-economic imperatives will increasingly influence South Africa’s foreign policy under its Government of National Unity. Domestic issues such as unemployment, poverty and inequality are likely to play a more prominent role in shaping its international engagements. These challenges should be key drivers in South Africa’s dealings with Russia and other global powers.

Third, Russia must recognise and respect Africa’s ability to make its own decisions and shape its future. Instead of relying on outdated Cold War approaches, Russia should engage with key continental initiatives, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and Africa’s long-term development plan, Agenda 2063. By avoiding tactics that seek to divide African countries through exclusive bilateral agreements, Russia can foster stronger and more meaningful collaboration with the continent as a whole, particularly through the African Union.

Finally, global power dynamics, particularly the relationships between major actors like the US and China, will continue to shape the context of Russia-South Africa relations. South Africa should seek to prevent itself and the continent from being used as pawns in these larger geopolitical tensions.

Russia should articulate how its engagement supports African-led development initiatives rather than pursuing narrow interests. South Africa, in turn, should more clearly define its strategic objectives and national interests vis-à-vis Russia within its broader foreign policy. To strengthen economic diplomacy, it should aim to revive and develop more traditional areas for cooperation beyond the military sphere, such as agriculture and energy resources.

As global power dynamics shift, understanding the nuances of relationships between Russia and South Africa becomes increasingly crucial. Policymakers can navigate the complexities of the emerging international order by directly engaging and nuancedly analysing them, balancing historical ties, current realities and future aspirations. A sustainable engagement will ultimately require moving beyond historical ties to build cooperation based on shared interests in transitioning world order.

Research by Gustavo de Carvalho, Xiang Chen

The views expressed in this publication/article are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the South African Institute of International Affairs