Much has been written in recent weeks about the geopolitical factors now driving the energy transition.

Particular attention has been given to how the attack on Iran by the US and Israel, which precipitated yet another energy crisis when the Strait of Hormuz was inevitably choked, is amplifying the benefits of the ongoing shift to renewables-led electrification.

The big picture presented in most of these articles is that China is dominating the energy transition and the shift towards electrification.

That this has helped to buffer China’s economy from the price shocks associated with the conflict.

That despite the immediate windfall for fossil fuel companies, and some acceleration in fossil exploration and development, the shift towards renewable energy and electric mobility has been further galvanised.

That the transition has the potential to reshape the global world order, and determine artificial intelligence (AI) dominance, owing to the inextricable linked between low-cost electricity and the infrastructure required to support AI.

And that the electro-state is rising, led by China, with major implications for petro-states and the eventual influence of the petrodollar, as well as for countries that will increasingly rely on Chinese panels, turbines and batteries for their own energy security.

Some of the small pictures feeding into this big picture are equally intriguing and worth noting.

One such snapshot is provided in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) latest report on electric vehicles (EVs).

It relates to the performance and outlook for electric trucks, sales of which grew for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, exceeding 400 000 for the first time and doubling compared to the previous year.

Globally, electric trucks reached 9% of all truck sales in 2025, surpassing the EV sales share for buses and light commercial vehicles.

Even more interestingly, the reports states that, while electric trucks remain two to three times more expensive to purchase than diesel trucks, the total cost of ownership (TCO) is already competitive in China, where one in four trucks sold in 2025 was electric.

The TCO of electric trucks is falling broadly and is expected to reach parity with that of diesel trucks in some other markets by 2030.

Given the high upfront costs, the IEA says that electric trucks still require multiple enabling conditions to scale up, including access to financing and reliable charging infrastructure. But it argues that when these elements align, adoption could accelerate suddenly, and potentially more rapidly than electric cars.

The report’s outlook for electric cars was also bullish, with a forecast that global electric car sales will rise again in 2026, reaching 23-million and accounting for close to 30% of all cars sold worldwide.

At this stage, South Africa is largely an observer of these developments.

Nevertheless, given its ambition to sustain a domestic automotive sector and develop new green industries, including those able to produce renewables components and batteries, it would be unwise to ignore these market developments. The focus, instead, should be on enabling and tapping into them.