JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) ­–  South Africa’s preparation for a brand new economic future is coinciding with the biggest-ever Electra Mining Africa show, which takes place in Johannesburg, from September 2 to 6.

Five interconnected industries – mining, electrical, automation, power and transport – with manufacturing at its core, will be showcased by 850 exhibitors in six halls, four outside exhibit areas, 39 000 m² exhibition space, and more than 30 000 expected visitors.

Interestingly, Efficient Group chief economist Dawie Roodt, who kicked off the media launch in the presence of teams of journalists, expressed the view that economic positives could potentially be well on the way in South Africa, including a possible lowering of interest rates.

“I think the South African Reserve Bank will be in a position to start cutting rates in six weeks’ time or so,” Roodt outlined at the media event hosted by Specialised Exhibitions MD Gary Corin and portfolio director Charlene Hefer, who shared key information on this year’s exhibition, which will be its largest of the event’s 52-year history.

Regarding South Africa’s new multi-party government, Roodt commented: “ I must say, so far, things are going better than expected.”

On the potential for faster economic growth, he said “I'm pretty sure that if we put the right policies in place, and we can get this economy to grow a little bit faster, it is very possible for the equity market to run another 20% or 30% which is huge.”

Financial markets did react positively to the emergence of the multi-party government. The rand appreciated, as did equity and bond markets.

His reading of the multi-party government is that greater efficiency is already happening.

But unless there is a positive policy change, Roodt’s expectation is for economic growth to be just below 1% or so next year, or with a bit of luck, maybe 1.5% or 2%.

Needed, though, is a growth rate of at least 2% just to keep pace with population growth and to bring down unemployment, economic growth of 4% to 5% is essential.

Meanwhile, Roodt’s expectation is that it will be India, rather than China, that will be driving the world economy, perhaps even for the next decade.

Roodt described the European economies as being dead in the water, and the American economy as currently shooting the lights out but with some indicating that a US economic recession may be on the way.