Independent elections analyst and management consultant Dawie Scholtz expects the African National Congress (ANC) will again win the May 8 national election and secure an estimated 56% of votes.

Scholtz, who was speaking at a panel discussion hosted by Herbert Smith Freehills, in Sandton, on Wednesday, used a prediction model based on data from polling and the previous by-election, splitting potential voters into various sets of homogenous groups.

The panel, moderated by Herbert Smith Freehills partner Peter Leon, included political and economic analysts and explored the likely results and outcomes of the election, as well as the consequences thereof for business.

Scholtz expected the  Democratic Alliance (DA) to garner an estimated 22% of votes, which is on par with its performance in the previous election.

He emphasised that the DA’s performance in this year’s election is predicated on the turnout of minorities, with the DA generally gaining the majority of its votes from those in suburban areas.

University of the Witwatersrand senior lecturer and economist and political commentator Lumkile Mondi also noted that the black middle class could potentially significantly increase the votes for the DA.

He indicated that, with the rising cost of living, the ANC has proven that it is unable to resolve this. Therefore, many in the black middle class are becoming disillusioned and may defect from the ANC to the DA, if they believe the party offers a better option to mitigate the rising cost of living.

Another element that may result in decreasing support for the DA is disillusionment from conservative Afrikaans voters. While the DA’s position on land reform is not as bold as the ANC’s – the DA’s stance is that those entitled to land receive it through direct ownership – this could, nevertheless, result in pushback from this voter base.

Such voters could potentially defect from the DA to smaller, more right-wing parties. However, this will depend on their voting strategy – they could remain with the DA to bolster opposition against the ANC or defect to another party that better supports their interests.

The last of the three big parties, the EFF, is expected to secure an estimated 9% to 12% of votes. This is a considerable rise on the 6.6% received in the last election.

While the two opposition parties are not expected to usurp the ANC at a national level, they present a much bigger threat in terms of the provincial election.

Scholtz expects the ANC to get 48% of the votes in Gauteng; based on it having received 46% of votes in the 2016 municipal elections.

The biggest challenge faced by the ANC in Gauteng is perpetually declining support from black voters. If voter turnout remains consistently high in the province, the biggest question will be whether this voter base has declined even further, especially given recent load-shedding and corruption plaguing the ANC, and whether these voters will defect to either the DA or the EFF.

However, the ANC could benefit from President Cyril Ramaphosa’s high approval rating in the province.

At the national level, the DA’s holding on to the Western Cape is largely dependent on voter turnout and suburban participation.

Another factor to consider is the coloured voter base and the effect of Patricia de Lille having resigned from the DA and formed the Good political party, and whether this will result in a loss of votes to the DA.

Scholtz expects the DA to get between 53% and 55% of the votes in the province, allowing it to hold on to the province.

The ANC, meanwhile, is expected to perform well in Limpopo and the Eastern Cape.

Mondi highlighted the importance of these elections, especially given the current economic climate of the country, with low growth, and rising State debt and unemployment; and the current political climate, with corruption plaguing the ANC, which also seems to be more split than ever.