Health Minister Dr Joe Phaahla announced on Friday that by the end of February the country would have reached a Covid-19 positivity rate of below 5% which would signal stability, however, he warned that there was an expectation that the fifth wave would break out closer to winter.

Depending on variants of concern, Phaahla said the wave might even break out earlier, adding that only high vaccination coverage will reduce the emergence of more variants.

He said the last 14 days had given the health department a confusing picture.

“We have seen a less resilient decline in infections; the picture being that of a stalemate where there’s no serious decline and yet no worrying rise in infections. Instead of the curve flattening, it has taken the shape of a plateau,” he explained.

The percentage of new cases over the last seven days has decreased by only 0.3%.

The Department of Health’s epidemiologists believe that the stagnation in the slowing down of new infections can be linked to the opening of schools.

Phaahla said it was possible that increased movement after the December holidays, especially as schools reopen, were reasons for this.

“We therefore have reason to be optimistic that as schools settle down and there’s reduced movement of people there will be a faster and sustained reduction of infections,” he said.

Hospitalisation remained stable with just over 5 000 admissions as of Thursday, with over 85% in general wards.

He said at this stage it could be restated that the country’s health facilities were not under pressure from Covid-19.

Meanwhile, 16 districts in the country have shown increased rates of infections in the last seven days. Phaahla also revealed that there have been reports of sub-variants of the Omicron variant.

COVID-19 VACCINATION

South Africa passed 30-million doses administered on Wednesday night, which Phaahla said took longer than they had anticipated but was nonetheless a significant milestone.

People over 60 years continue to lead the vaccination pack at 67.25%, of people aged 50 years and over 63.15% have been vaccinated, the 35 to 49 years come in at 51% and the 18 to 34 cohort sits at 33%.

“We again appeal to all South Africans to seize the opportunity of protecting themselves and those around them now. While the fourth wave remains stable, even though we are not completely out of it, and while the rate remains above 10%, we know that the virus is still very far from being eliminated,” he said.