Depending on the view one subscribes to, the number of states in Africa can either be 53 or 54. The reason for this state of confusion stems from Morocco's withdrawal from the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) in 1984, due to the organisation's recognition of Western Sahara. Morocco claimed, and still claims, that Western Sahara is part of its territory. In the light of this, 53 states, excluding Morocco, are referred to as member states of the African Union (AU). However, if one were to adopt a territorial or geographic definition of Africa, Morocco, despite its earlier renunciation of OAU membership, remains an African state.

That being said, the result of the referendum in Southern Sudan in January 2011, may present Africa with its 55th state, and the AU with its 54th member state. While automatic statehood is based on the willingness of the majority of the citizens of Southern Sudan to vote in favour of secession, there are, however, a number of issues that would have to be addressed. Chief of these include the demarcation of boundaries (especially the oil-rich Abyei area), the citizenship of southerners living in the north, and the sharing of the River Nile waters.(2) These sticking points, like the resolution of the civil war, would require the involvement of regional powers and the international community. The settlement of these points will go a long way in determining whether or not Sudan will revert to civil war.

It is against this background that this discussion paper engages in a discourse of some of the factors that are capable of shaping, for good or bad, the future of a likely sovereign state of Southern Sudan. While the prevention of another civil war is critical, it is also pertinent to discuss other factors that will give impetus to the viability and the development of the future state.

The future Southern Sudan - Variables that would impact on development

Before discussing how the prevalent configuration of regional and continental politics will impact on the progressive development of Southern Sudan, it is important to outline the context within which the variables discussed below would operate.

• Firstly, Southern Sudan is a highly impoverished and an underdeveloped area.
• Secondly, Southern Sudan is eligible, due to its location, to apply for the membership of the relatively successful East African Community (EAC), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the AU. The Kenyan foreign minister, Moses Wetangula, has already indicated that the EAC has received a written notification from southern Sudan in this regard.(3) In addition, Southern Sudan can also join the United Nations (UN).
• Thirdly, Southern Sudan is bordered by areas that are conflict-ridden.
• Fourthly, Southern Sudan has a considerable quantity of crude oil reserves.
• Fifthly, the democratisation process on the continent is, to put it mildly, extremely challenging.

The aforementioned factors are important to the extent that they provide the current geo-political and economic realities, which in turn point to the indicators that would impact, positively or negatively, on the development of Southern Sudan. In this sense, it is important to briefly dissect how these variables will, individually and/or collectively, ensure that Southern Sudan would either become a viable state or just another addition to the long list of impoverished and landlocked African states. In this regard, the discussion below will consider four broad variables: crude oil, stability, regional cooperation and democracy.

The oil factor

The presence of crude oil within the territory of southern Sudan is a factor that requires serious attention. The experience of other African oil-rich nations, especially with regard to the mismanagement of oil revenues, should provide an ideal lesson for the future Government of Southern Sudan.(4) The key lesson here is that substantial oil revenue does not necessarily translate into economic development, unless it is accompanied by strict compliance with good governance standards.

It is therefore imperative that if the Government of Southern Sudan is to remove its citizens from the throes of endemic poverty and underdevelopment, it has to put in place measures that promote transparency and accountability in the management of oil revenue. Such a framework should include input from technical partners - from both regional and international agencies.

The framework should contain the modus for citizens' participation in the management of resources, environmental impact assessments (EIA), the publication of oil revenue expenditure and the formula for expending oil revenues on developmental projects and human development. If well managed, oil revenues have the potential of transforming the fortunes of southern Sudan. Thus, it is crucial that proper consideration is given to mechanisms that accentuate effective management.

The stability factor

Another important point to consider is how Southern Sudan's membership of the AU, EAC, and IGAD will impact on regional security. In this respect, the existing security frameworks of these institutions will be crucial not only in ensuring peace between Southern and Northern Sudan, but will also determine the relationship between Southern Sudan and its neighbours. The involvement of Southern Sudan in peace talks between the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) rebels and the Government of Uganda, the cordial relationship between the Southern People's Liberation Movement (SPLM/A) and Uganda, and the (positive) disposition of regional powers such as Kenya, Ethiopia and Egypt provide some indication that there will be proactive efforts to ensure peace and stability.(5)

The maintenance of peace and stability, or more appropriately the prevention of the eruption of civil war, requires an intensification of diplomatic engagements and the coordination of efforts amongst the AU, EAC and IGAD and the UN. Such involvement should be bolstered by an active early warning system or mechanism and a readily available mediation team. Regional stability is crucial for providing Southern Sudan with the requisite milieu for development. In the same vein, insecurity within southern Sudan can pose a serious threat to regional stability.

The regional cooperation factor

Closely related to ensure regional security and development is the importance of integrating Southern Sudan into regional structures. Of particular importance is how Southern Sudan's membership of the relatively successful EAC will impact on its development. With a combined population of 133.5 million and a total GDP of US$ 74.5 billion, the membership of the EAC will provide Southern Sudan with a viable platform for unlocking its potential for development.(6) In addition to this, individual member states and/or the EAC can play a strategic role in helping Southern Sudan develop both its infrastructure and institutions.(7) As discussed above, the membership of regional organisations such as IGAD and the AU is also significant for the ensuring security.

The democracy factor

On ensuring that Southern Sudan adheres to democratic standards, the reality on the ground does not encourage much enthusiasm. A cursory look at the membership of continental and regional institutions reveals that most members are either quasi-democratic or outright autocratic states.(8) In this vein, such member states lack the moral authority and legitimacy to ensure that the Government of Southern Sudan follow a democratic path. What this implies is that the onus rests on the regime in Southern Sudan to recognise that its people deserve a Government built on the ethos of transparency, accountability and justice.

The consequence(s) of the rampant disregard of good governance standards and democratic ethos across the continent should serve as an instructive lesson for southern Sudan. The decimation of critical national institutions, corruption, the intimidation of opposition, and the muzzling of the media have all ensured the stunted development in some African states. Avoiding these pitfalls should thus be the primary task of the future Government of Southern Sudan.

Conclusion

This paper examines how regional and continental politics may play a major role in ensuring that Southern Sudan becomes a viable entity. Southern Sudan's road to eventual statehood will by no means be an easy process. While the primary duty to succeed rests on Southern Sudan, the imperatives of global realpolitik provide that regional and international powers play an active role in guiding the nascent nation (if it eventually votes in favour of self-determination).

There is an obligation on African states to ensure that Southern Sudan does not end up as another addition to the corpus of Africa's chequered history. It is thus incumbent on African states not only to be actively involved in ensuring the stability of Southern Sudan, but also lead by example in the areas of good governance and democratic development. Be it as an independent state or an autonomous unit within Sudan, Southern Sudan needs all the support it can get to engender development.

Written by: Babatunde Fagbayibo(1)

NOTES:

(1) Contact Babatunde Fagbayibo through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Africa Watch Unit (africa.watch@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) Peter Martell, ‘The waiting game'. BBC Focus on Africa, April - June 2010, pp. 13-19.
(3) Keto Segwai, ‘East Africans vow to mop up Somali terrorists'. The African.org, Issue 8, 2010, p.29.
(4) Olomola Akanni, ‘Oil wealth and economic growth in oil exporting African countries'. AERC Research Paper 170 2008. http://www.aercafrica.org.
(5) International Crisis Group (ICG), ‘Regional perspectives on the prospect of southern independence'. African Report No 159, 2010. http://www.crisisgroup.org.
(6) EAC Website, http://www.eac.int.
(7) International Crisis Group (ICG), ‘Regional perspectives on the prospect of southern independence'. African Report No 159, 2010. http://www.crisisgroup.org.
(8) Freedom House Website, http://www.freedomhouse.org.