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Rates remain unchanged

SARB governor Gill Marcus
Photo by Reuters
SARB governor Gill Marcus

22nd May 2014

By: Sapa

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The repo rate will remain unchanged at 5.5%, the South Africa Reserve Bank's monetary policy committee decided on Thursday.

"The committee continues to hold the view that we are in a rising interest rate cycle, and interest rates will have to be normalised in due course," SARB governor Gill Marcus said.

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"At this stage the pace and timing of normalisation in the advanced economies appears to have been pushed out further and may be more moderate than previously believed."

The decision meant the prime interest rate would remain steady at nine%.

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Announcing the monetary policy committee's (MPC's) decision in Pretoria, Marcus said the MPC was aware it might change quickly.

In January, the committee increased the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. In March the repo rate remained unchanged.

She said the rand was expected to remain vulnerable and the recent appreciation was more a reflection of changing global risk perceptions.

"The exchange rate is likely to remain sensitive to domestic factors, including developments in the current account of the balance of payments and perceptions of its sustainability," she said.

"In particular, the ongoing strike in the platinum sector is expected to begin to have a significant negative impact on exports... and a further extension of the strike could impede the required current account adjustment process."

She said the cumulative loss of wages was estimated to have exceeded R8-billion.

Members of the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union at Lonmin, Impala Platinum, and Anglo American Platinum went on strike on January 23 demanding a basic salary of R12 500 per month. They rejected the companies' offer that would bring their cash remuneration to R12 500 by July 2017.

She said the domestic economic growth outlook had "deteriorated markedly".

"There is still no end in sight to the protracted strike in the platinum sector, and the economic and social costs are escalating and are potentially devastating," said Marcus.

"Against this backdrop, monetary policy faces an increasingly challenging scenario."

Marcus said further action by the MPC would depend on data and be determined by developments in inflation expectations.

"Inflation is currently at uncomfortable levels and a marked deterioration in the outlook may require action that we will not hesitate to take," Marcus said.

"The MPC reiterates that a rising interest rate cycle does not mean that rates will be raised at each meeting, or by the same amount each time."

Marcus said the bank's economic growth forecast for 2014 had been revised down to 2.1% from 2.6%. The first quarter growth outcome was anticipated to be the lowest quarterly growth rate since the 2009 recession.

Growth in the second quarter was expected to improve, but the risks to the 2014 growth forecast were strongly on the downside with developments in the mining sector an "ongoing cause for concern", said Marcus.

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