This week Wednesday is the deadline for President Jacob Zuma to present to Parliament his response to Public Protector Thuli Madonsela’s report on the expenditure of R260-million of public money on security and other upgrades to his private home at Nkandla, KwaZulu-Natal. Madonsela recommended that Zuma pay back to the state a part of that money and ordered him to respond to Parliament by April 2.

However, following a weekend meeting of the national executive committee (NEC) of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) at which Zuma was present and at which the report was discussed, it seemed clear that the ANC was going to protect Zuma and instead shift the blame to scapegoats, the very same modus operandi used with previous controversies involving Zuma or his government.

In the firing line, it seems, are the former public works minister Geoff Doidge, his former deputy minister Henrietta Bogopane-Zulu (now Deputy Minister of Women, Children and People with Disabilities), and various lowly public service officials. Former defence minister Lindiwe Sisulu (now Minister of Public Service and Administration) and police minister Nathi Methethwa are also being fingered by some of their NEC colleagues to take some of the rap.

Under these circumstance it seems unlikely that Zuma is going to have Parliament recalled by Wednesday in order to state his case. While the Public Protector lacks the power to compel him to do so, his failure to do so  could perhaps break other laws. However, there may possibly be finer legalities involved that perhaps could offer him an out as the Public Protector’s investigation and report were conducted in terms of a number of laws, codes and regulations. On the other hand, Zuma has cancelled his attendance of the EU-AU summit in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday which means he will be in South Africa should Parliament be recalled. Either way, some people in various political quarters expect Zuma to offer some or other response this week.

In the meantime, it seems the more Zuma becomes a liability for the ANC and the country, the more his inner circle of ministers, officials and party functionaries are determined to protect him. Zuma does not in the least display any sign of guilt or remorse, or of respect for democratic and legal processes. Instead he went on the election campaign trail in Cape Town this weekend professing his total innocence – and ignorance of the upgrade process -  and blaming all on those who serve under him despite the fact that he was regularly updated and gave the final sign-off to all the work done.

While those loyal to Zuma on the ANC’s NEC – including both the youth and women’s leagues also – rallied around to support and protect Zuma at the weekend meeting, the issue has shown up dissenting voices both on the NEC and among former NEC members. Among those who urged the ANC and Zuma to face up to the Public Protector’s report and implement its recommendations, are a number of people still seen as loyal to former President Thabo Mbeki who was ousted by Zuma. Those who have urged Zuma and the ANC to accept the report and face up to it, are outgoing Minister in the Presidency Trevor Manuel, former Intelligence Services minister Ronnie Kasrils, ANC NEC member Pallo Jordan, former President Mbeki and outgoing Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe.

Zuma and Constitutional Amendments

His reaction to the Nkandla scandal and his refusal to ever accept responsibility for his actions bring questions of morality, integrity, leadership and his understanding of democratic and legal process into the equation. He also does not act like someone who knows his tenancy of the Presidency is at the mercy of those very processes, his party and the voters, nor does he act like someone who is about to serve his final term as president.

Given Zuma’s actions over his entire term as president and given the ANC’s wish for a two-thirds majority in the upcoming general election in order to be able to change the Constitution, it is perhaps time to ask the critical question: will Zuma be prepared to step down and relinquish power at the end of his final term, or will he complete the current Zimbabwefication of South Africa, change the Constitution and stay on in the Presidency as one of Africa’s Big Men, the next Robert Mugabe, making South Africa his personal fiefdom?

Should the ANC win its coveted two-thirds majority on May 7 a number of issues could be addressed with amendments to the Constitution, some of which have been raised in some or other manner by the ANC or members of government before. Among these are the clauses relating to the Chapter 9 watchdog institutions including the Public Protector; freedom of speech and the media; the independence and functional jurisdiction of the judiciary; creating a prime minister’s post under the president; restructuring the system of provinces; changes to the public service; and changing the number of terms a president may serve.

The other option available to Zuma – other than amending the Constitution - would be to step down when his second term ends but to remain on as president of the ANC while the ANC appoints a puppet state president who reports to Zuma and the ANC leadership. In this way Zuma will remain the power behind the throne, just as Vladimir Putin did in Russia when he he had to vacate the presidency for a term after serving two consecutive terms. Putin’s lackey Dmitry Medvedev, the current prime minister, took care as president for that term before again vacating the presidency in favour of Putin in 2012.

Platinum Strike

As the longest strike in the history of South Africa’s platinum mining sector enters its 10th week, something has got to give. A very critical period in the strike may be approaching where the wait-and-see approach practised by both sides till now could change into either or both sides starting to make desperate moves, moves that could in turn set off dangerous reactions by those on the opposing side.

Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) is already considering closing down some of its mines that can no longer turn a profit this year as a result of the strike. Amplats already had to restructure its Rustenburg mines last year and retrench 7,500 workers. More mines could follow suit as a result of the current strike. That in turn would elicit negative reactions from the striking Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) and possibly other unions, while government would probably also take a harsh view.

With the platinum stockpiles fast running out, it does not seem like the affected platinum miners can sit out the strike much longer. The strike has also entered a phase where it seems both sides may be engaging in spreading disinformation and employing underhand tactics in order to wear the other side down. Leaders of AMCU have said their workers are still fired up about continuing with the strike and that the union has a plan in place to intensify and prolong the strike. Some of the mining companies on the other hand have what they claim are letters from workers on their websites stating the workers are tired of striking and not being paid and that they want to return to work.

Meanwhile non-striking workers and members of non-striking unions, as well as small contractors working for these mines who are being adversely affected, are also losing patience with the situation. Few people realise how such strikes also affect the livelihoods and businesses of contracting companies, service providers and downstream entities. As Business Day reported today, Implats used 120 contracting companies employing 12,000 people at its mines around Rustenburg and paid them R100-million a month, all of which has been lost.

It is likely that third parties – both private and government – will this week step up their attempts to bring the strike parties back to the negotiating table and put an end to this destructive strike. Mining companies Amplats, Impala Platinum and Lonmin are scheduled today to meet mediators from the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration (CCMA), which earlier pulled out of the negotiations with AMCU when no progress was made. The CCMSA will most likely resume mediation, but that will not be made any easier by a planned AMCU march to Lonmin’s headquarters on Thursday.

But meanwhile one thing is certain: the tremendous damage caused by the strike over the last nine weeks – R4.8-billion in lost wages, R10.5-billion in lost revenue for the mining companies, the standstill in production and depletion of platinum stockpiles, the socio-economic cost to surrounding communities, the undoing of attempts since Marikana to improve and stabilise labour relations on these mines, and more – will take many years to reverse, if it can ever be fully reversed.

And if any of the companies shut down some or even all of their platinum mines it will push up the unemployment numbers and slow down economic growth. It could well happen that those shafts that have already shut down may never come back on again due to the immense costs involved.

Written by Africa-International Communications Political Analyst & Editor: Stef Terblanche