In less than 20 years from now, emerging economies would have the most “economic weight” as they came to dominate global investments, a World Bank Global Development Horizons report has found.
The 'Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World' report, released on Thursday, said that, in 17 years, half of the $158-trillion global capital would reside in the developing world, compared with the less than one-third currently recorded.
East Asia and Latin America would account for the largest share of this stock, it said.
China and India would become the largest investors – together accounting for 38% of the global gross investment by 2030 – while developing countries’ combined share in global investment would triple to three-fifths, up from the one-fifth recorded in 2000.
The report, which explored patterns of investment, saving and capital flows, attributed the “structural shifts” to changing demographics – as the world’s population would increase to 8.5-billion by 2030, from 7-billion in 2010.
Emerging countries were expected to add 1.4-billion people to the global population by 2030, expanding its relatively youthful population, while the advanced economies would undergo “rapid ageing”.
“Productivity catch-up, increasing integration into global markets, sound macroeconomic policies, and improved education and health are helping to speed up growth and create massive investment opportunities, which, in turn, are spurring a shift in global economic weight to developing countries, said World Bank senior VP and chief economist Kaushik Basu.
“We know from the experience of countries as diverse as South Korea, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa the pivotal role investment plays in driving long-term growth,” he added.
However, developing countries would need to expand their currently limited participation in international financial markets to complement their expected strong savings to fund their combined $14.6-trillion infrastructure investments between now and 2030.
World Bank development prospects group director Hans Timmer added that saving rates in developing countries were expected to peak at 34% of national income in 2014 and would average 32% a year over the next 17 years.
“In aggregate terms, the developing world will account for 62% to 64% of global savings of $25-trillion to $27-trillion by 2030, up from 45% in 2010.”
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