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If you like sausages, you shouldn’t watch them being made.
This aphorism aptly applies to our country’s transition to democracy. History teaches us that the making of democracy everywhere is a messy, often unappetising business. There is no single recipe for success. Some transitions fail.
Others succeed because enough people understand in time what the stakes are, and take responsibility for ensuring that the advances outweigh the setbacks.
The ANC Youth League’s recent conference, where Julius Malema emerged not merely as a populist demagogue but as a dictator-in-waiting, must be counted among the setbacks. It was certainly an unappetising moment.
But, without underestimating the threat Malema poses to South Africa’s future, his rise to political power also creates significant opportunities that we must recognise and use.
First, let’s acknowledge the threat. Malema is dangerous because he taps into a rich vein of resentment and anger, particularly among many marginalised and unemployed young people. He gives their rage a voice. He relieves their sense of impotence. He offers quick-fix solutions to complex problems. And he absolves people from any personal responsibility by blaming a wide spectrum of scapegoats.
On the surface, it seems as if Malema is waging an indiscriminate war in order to build his profile and power base. But if one looks beyond the rhetoric, it is clear that Malema is doing battle with our Constitution.
His aim is to obliterate the historical compact that we achieved in the mid-1990s. The key feature of our Constitution is the Bill of Rights and the multiple checks and balances to prevent power abuse. These cramp Malema’s style. So does Nelson Mandela’s legacy of non-racialism and inclusivity.
Malema’s vocal assault on Mandela’s legacy (with the silent acquiescence of the Party’s senior leadership), has changed the ANC’s brand. He has, single-handedly, positioned the ANC as a racial nationalist party: exclusive, uncompromising, insatiable in its lust for power, and impervious to other ideas. Perhaps most significantly, from a strategic perspective, the Youth League’s Congress was a defeat for those in the ANC who believe they can still rescue the movement “from within”.
This became clear during Malema’s closing speech when he called on the youth to secure at least 50% of the positions on all party structures, as well as key executive posts. The speech was the first skirmish on the road to the ANC’s elective conference in December 2012 in Mangaung. Malema may have scored an “H” for matric woodwork, but he is positioning himself for an “A” in Mangaung maths. He knows that the ANC’s next President must be elected by conference delegates. If the ANCYL holds the balance of power, Julius Malema will be the powerbroker. Whoever is elected, will hold the position on Malema’s terms. My current prediction is that the Youth League will replace Gwede Mantashe with Fikile Mbalula, but retain Jacob Zuma as a figurehead.
This scenario would be deeply depressing if it were not for the huge opportunity Malema has opened at the centre of South African politics. Malema’s ANC has left a vacuum which was once filled by Nelson Mandela and everything he symbolises. His values of non-racialism, inclusivity, reconciliation and redress are looking for a new home. The DA embraced these values, clearly and authentically, during the 2011 election. But that was just the beginning.
Significantly, partly as result of this shift, the DA attracted almost one out of every four votes in the election. But there are millions more South Africans, in all political parties (including the ANC) who do not vote for the DA -- but are deeply committed to our Constitution and Mandela’s vision of one nation with one future. The existing boundaries of political parties have become obsolete. Over the next few years, the key task in politics will be to bring together, in one powerful formation, all those who are committed to ensuring that South Africa’s progress to democracy continues, within the framework of our Constitution.
I have called this process the realignment of politics. It is one of the key objectives I set when I became DA leader in 2007.
The process is already well underway. It started with the formation of the DA in 2000. Since then there have been some catalytic events, which have assisted in taking this process further. They include the formation of COPE, and the recent decision of the DA and the ID to merge. The 2011 local government election results created the context for further movement. So has Malema’s planned “putsch” in the ANC.
The only question about the next ANC split is not whether it will happen, but when. The tragic failure of COPE has made ANC dissidents much more cautious because they recognise the difficulties of launching and sustaining a new political brand. But the disintegration of the ANC is irreversible. It is difficult to predict which fault lines will crack first. But the battle will be vicious to retain the party’s iconic name, brand and infrastructure. It will involve the abuse of state institutions, and accelerate in the run-up to Mangaung. We must prepare for any eventuality. We cannot be caught napping.
The next few years will be unsettling, probably profoundly so, but this process is unavoidable if we want to break down the boundaries of our atrophied political formations, and launch something new, exciting and attractive enough to offer a political alternative for all South Africans who want our democracy to work for the benefit of all.
But the realignment of politics goes far beyond established political parties. It involves the whole of society, and this process too, is well underway. In fact, the rest of society is probably ahead of political parties on the issue of realignment. Malema has shaken people out of their lethargy and created a new energy among many to take responsibility for protecting the gains of our transition and reversing the setbacks. The Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution is one such example and, together with many others, could play a pivotally important facilitating role in the realignment process.
I have no doubt that, when the chips are down, most South Africans will rally to protect the gains of the past 17 years and work for a shared and equitable future.
But this collective energy will dissipate if it occurs in the absence of a credible and practical plan to address South Africa’s biggest single challenge -- the crisis of unemployment and poverty. A clear plan, that galvanises people across boundaries, both in civil society and politics, is the only antidote to Malema’s economic populism and racial nationalism. Our job, collectively with many others inside and outside the political arena, is to give such a plan a credible and inclusive voice, and the platform it needs to project it. If Malema has been a wake-up call rude enough to galvanise people into action, he has done South Africa a favour. If we work together to build a new alternative in the space created by Nelson Mandela, many South Africans will come together to fill it.
We must move with deliberate determination, and keep our eyes on the prize.